Gary Gustafson 
Welcome back MLB DFS fans! Tonight, we have another solid slate on DraftKings with big prizes pools to take down so let’s get started with our top MLB DFS picks for today’s slate!
For those of you new to Picks and Pivots, the goal of this MLB DFS article each and every day is to provide you a “First Look” overview of the slate where we use DraftKings pricing as a baseline to help us get started. Rather than simply write out the “top plays,” this article will focus on slate strategy and roster construction with a GPP mindset to help you get started on your initial builds. Without further ado, let’s dive into today’s slate!
MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Thursday Slate Breakdown:
Thank you Astros. No seriously – you winning last night gives us another shot at a two game slate this evening and for yours truly who had far too much Kyle Wright and not enough Dodgers stacks – I am itching for one more crack at this MLB DFS thing before we get to the offseason!
Now enough happiness – here is the reality. We know very little about this slate in actuality as Clayton Kershaw is the only confirmed true starting pitcher and there is a very real chance all the other three teams go with a bullpen approach.
Here is what we know:
So if you are trying to anchor in on a core build today early on – the easy answer is lock in Kershaw and stack 5 Dodgers against Wilson.
Over the last two seasons, Wilson has just an 18% K rate, 8% SS rate and gives up .288 ISO to LHB and .235 to RHB. Remember yesterday when the Dodgers faced a low K arm who struggled to get lefties out? Kyle Wright is still racking up negative points for my DFS lineups as I type this.
It may sound like an oversimplification, but with so much unknown, we simply need to anchor to what we do know and getting the best arm on the slate with the best offensive has to be where we lay our foundation.
Now after that – can we get weird? Fo. Sho.
If we don’t want to play Bryse Wilson (we don’t), then we are going to be left with the bullpen game in TB/Houston. Both Luis Garcia and Chase DeJong are $4.1K on DraftKings and we could get 2 innings against the high K Rays line-up.
That $4.1K range actually I think is where you can try and get weird on this slate as an SP2. Listen, if you are sorting through a bunch of options that are 1-2 inning guys – what says we can’t go with closers? The only disadvantage there is that they may not ever get into the game and you sport a big fat 0 – but if you play the “known” with Luis Garcia as an opener, is the opportunity cost really that high?
In his last three outings, he has gone 3 total innings with..wait for it…….3.2 fantasy points (which actually would have been a huge improvement over Kyle Wright – and yes I am still tilting).
The point is that if we end up with Kershaw and a pitcher pool of 1-2 inning guys, then it’s a dartboard throw at best which one you pick. This is where Discord is going to be key today – we need to stay on top of news and reports and try and find our edge here.
With the Dodgers having a “weak spot” at 2B – it lines up well from a correlation perspective to stack either the Astros/Rays alongside the Dodgers as you can use Jose Altuve/Brandon Lowe at that spot and whichever you choose in your builds, I think will determine which 3 man mini-stack you roll with.
Picks and Pivots: Wrap up
First look articles are always tough and today is well – impossible. However, I think there is some value in having this first look build under our belts because it will allow us to pivot easier as news breaks – waiting to get the news and then reacting (especially as many of us are juggling real world responsibilities) can be a recipe for “well, I threw this together.”
So go into the day with the idea of Kershaw and 5 Dodgers bats – with the expectation you go with an Astros/Rays mini-stack around them. What that allows you to do is focus your time on the SP2 decision and let’s roll.
Maybe this is the final slate of the MLB DFS season and while the pitching options may be ugly – can it really be uglier than 30% Kyle Wright?
Time to dig in – let’s get it today!
Let’s get it tonight my friends!
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