Gary Gustafson 
Welcome to the Thursday, May 5th edition of MLB DFS Picks and Pivots where we dive into the top fantasy baseball plays and slate strategy to help you take down tournaments all season long at Win Daily Sports!
If you are new to MLB DFS Picks and Pivots, the goal of this article is not simply to list out the “best plays” but rather walk through the context of the slate and help you identify the best arms and stacks to build around for MLB DFS tournament play. We will use DraftKings pricing as our anchor and help you get a head start on your winning builds!
MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Cole or Bust?
Welcome to Thursday’s MLB DFS slate which kicks off early at 1PM EST with 8 games on the slate and that means all day baseball to sweat!
The very first question you have to ask yourself on this slate is what you plan to do with the clear-cut ace in Gerrit Cole ($10.5K)?
Now, this is not about the metrics or the talent, as Adam broke down in today’s Starting Rotation – he is the clear highest upside K arm on this slate. However, with the lofty ownership likely (consider Bieber last night was roughly 60% owned in GPP’s), is there merit to the fade in an effort to make our builds entirely different than those that opt to pay up for their SP1?
If we go this route, then we need to build from the bottom up – meaning, we start at the bottom of the SP player pool and work our way up to find price points we are comfortable attacking.
The first name we come to is Triston McKenzie ($6.6K) – the absolute definition of a GPP arm on this slate. McKenzie’s K rate of nearly 34% and SS rate of over 13% would rank only behind Mr. Cole on this slate but his over 21% walk rate this season has completely stymied whatever jump we expected in Year 2 and it has meant early exits and crooked numbers.
This play is equal parts terrifying and equal parts GPP perfection as the K upside jumps off the page for McKenzie in this spot as he has a 40% K rate against RHB this season and the Royals have 5 of their 9 hitters from that side of the plate.
This is not a question of McKenzie’s stuff – the first inning last game shows you what he is capable of.
I went back and watched the post game for McKenzie and what jumped out to me is how measured he was in his response, how specific he was in understanding his walk issues and how he intends to push more first push strikes going forward.
That first pitch strike issue has really jumped out when you dig into the metrics – he has dropped from 66% of first pitch strikes down to 54% this year – with last game’s 18% rate being a massive season low.
The inability to get ahead in counts, has also meant his pitch mix changes – having to rely nearly 75% of the time in his fastball last start which when you consider last season that mark was just 53%, you realize how the walks are forcing him to become a one pitch pitcher.
Now, looking at the metrics and saying – well if he just throws more first-pitch strikes, he can get ahead in the count and rack up the lofty K metrics – is an overly simplistic view and not one I think McKenzie just flips on a dime and executes. That being said, his price point is at a point where you simply do not find guys this often with the K upside he has and as a GPP player, I would rather be ahead of the MLB DFS crowds when he does make that switch and be willing to absorb the risk that these walk struggles continue.
If we stay in the same game, it is hard to overlook what Danny Duffy ($8.8K) offers us with a near 30% K rate and 14% SS rate on the season. Duffy has now gone 5 straight starts with 20+ DK points, throwing 30 innings, allowing just 2 ER’s and racking up 34 K’s in the process.
As Adam pointed out, there may be a regression in the ERA but the K rate is very much real and that is all I care about when it comes to MLB DFS picks for GPP play.
If you want to go even cheaper – the top value arm besides McKenzie in my eyes is Taijuan Walker ($7K) who is going to get the advantage of the massive split against a right-handed heavy Cardinals team which plays into his 25%K rate and 6% walk rate splits benefit.
Honestly – I think McKenize and Walker could be the absolute perfect pairing for GPPs as a way to go heavy with your bats and build a lineup that looks totally different than those who plug in Cole as an SP1.
MLB DFS Picks and Pivots – Time to Stack
If you take the approach to fade Cole and go K hunting in the value range, you are doing so with an eye on bats – the ones that can do some serious damage and thankfully we have multiple such spots today.
Let’s not bury the lede here – it is Jon Lester day and he has to face – oh boy, the Atlanta Braves.
Lester did exactly what he always does in his first start against Miami – straight up tight rope act. He had a 6.8 xFIP, an under 7% swinging strike rate and gave up 45% hard contact – and you know what that resulted in? 5 innings of shutout ball.
This is why Lester is my DFS nemesis – the metrics say attack and he just Harry Houdini’s it every time.
However, let’s be real – navigating the Marlins line-up is not even remotely the same as trying to get through this right-handed heavy Braves line-up – especially at the top with Ronald Acuna, Marcell Ozuna and Ozzie Albies all sporting massive ISO marks of .230, .350 and .280 against LHP since the start of last season.
That trio is at the core of my lineup building today and stacking the Braves right-handed batters alongside Freddie Freeman gives you the “late-night” or is it “late afternoon” hammer for this mid-day DFS slate.
The other stack that jumps off the page today to me is the Toronto Blue Jays against Mike Fiers who frankly, you could argue is the worst arm metrics-wise on this slate. Fiers has the highest SIERA, lowest K rate and lowest SS rate of any arms on this slate and in 2021 has surrendered a 50% plus hard contact rate to hitters from both sides of the plate.
Fire up the Molson’s because the Blue Jays are going HR hunting!
Fiers is going to rely heavily on his sinker to both sides of the plate and well, I have bad news for you Mike – the Jays hammer this pitch type. Both Cavan Biggio and Marcus Semien have .300+ ISO marks against it while Bichette, Teoscar and Grichuk all have .200+ marks. The one guy that struggles with it is actually Vladdy but you aren’t going to skip him in a Jays stack just because of this one metric.
The Jays and Braves actually correlate really well from a stacking perspective as well. The Braves are very OF heavy with Acuna/Ozuna which is perfect for a Jays team that is more infield centric when it comes to their fantasy production. Mix and match these stacks and watch the home runs fly!
MLB DFS Picks and Pivots – The Wrap Up
Nothing better than the sun shining and all day MLB DFS to play and with elite arms and big bats to stack, we are going to have a fun tournament slate on our hands.
Ownership will matter for me on an 8 game slate and if Gerrit Cole’s ownership is inflated, you have to realize that those who opt to pay up for him are likely all going the same route with their bats. So fading Cole to me is not about just fading him, it’s about fading those builds, and by doing so I can attack two high octane offenses in the Braves and Blue Jays and allow my bats to do the talking!
Happy Lester Day!
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