Gary Gustafson 
Welcome to the Thursday, May 20th edition of MLB DFS Picks and Pivots where we dive into the top fantasy baseball plays and slate strategy to help you take down tournaments all season long at Win Daily Sports!
If you are new to MLB DFS Picks and Pivots, the goal of this article is not simply to list out the “best plays” but rather walk through the context of the slate and help you identify the best arms and stacks to build around for MLB DFS tournament play. We will use DraftKings pricing as our anchor and help you get a head start on your winning builds!
MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Early Slate
Welcome in my MLB DFS friends to a split slate Thursday where we get 4 games on the early slate which kicks off at 12:35 PM EST. This slate is tricky because we have mediocre pitching options and seemingly endless hitting spots including what it appears to be a wind game in Wrigley Field with 17 MPH winds blowing out.
The “safest” route would be to go with a Tyler Mahle/Rich Hill duo or you can even slide down to Domingo German against the K happy Rangers however I think there are some other routes we can take in GPP’s understanding the risk.
Joe Ross ($7.1K) may have to deal with a windy Wrigley which is concern but the match-up against the Cubs is one that I think he can handle. The Cubs strike out at a 26% rate against RHP this season which is 7th most in baseball and the projected line-up without Anthony Rizzo in it, has a 27.3% K rate against righties this season.
Ross is a sinker ball pitcher, generating nearly 45% ground balls so the profile is there to pitch well in a windy environment with an added K boost. Now, Ross has also had two complete blow-up outings this year in Arizona and against St. Louis where he gave up 18 ER and 5 HR’s combined but outside of those outings he has been quite solid with 17.5 DK points per game in his other five outings.
Now if you thought Ross was risky – wait until you play Dane Dunning ($6.5K) against the New York Yankees. Take the names/teams out of it for a second and look at it this way:
Player A: 25.8% K rate this season, 3.43 xFIP against a projected line-up with a 23.6% K rate and .145 ISO.
Player B: 24.2% K rate this season, 4.27 xFIP against a projected line-up with a 24.5% K rate and .204 ISO.
Player A is Dane Dunning and player B is Domingo German who will likely draw considerably more ownership with his match-up and what Corey Kluber just did.
The risk for Dunning is obvious but this is an arm with a 56% ground ball rate overall, that jumps to a 64% GB rate against RHB which sets up well against a Yankees team that will likely only have two LHB.
Dunning outside of one really bad outing against the White Sox, has averaged 19 DK points per game in his other six starts which even includes a 1 point dud his last time out.
While Mahle and Rich Hill are the “safe routes” I also do not see them as must plays on this slate and I think prioritizing bats and taking some calculated risk at pitcher is the way to go!
The easier part with having such bad pitching is that finding the stacks is that much more transparent and with the Tampa Bay Rays in Camden Yards against Dean Kremer – we can go right back to one of our favorite spots!
Kremer this season has given up a 49% HC rate with 2.3 HR/9 and now has to face one of the most powerful lineups in baseball. The top of the order with Arozarena, Meadows, Choi and Lowe is stacked with pop but the bottom of the order with Wendle, Zunino and Kiermaier offers you the opportunity for a bottom of the order stack that will be far lower owned. No matter which way you go – this stack is at the core of my early builds.
The Reds are the other team on my radar early in Great American Ballpark against Johnny Cueto. The book on Cueto is a long one, but the story has always been the same and that has been we can attack him with left-handed power bats especially outside of San Francisco.
The Reds are loaded with left-handed pop – Jesse Winker, Tyler Naquin, Mike Moustakas and Tucker Barnhart all offer the splits advantage and guys like Winker (.327), Naquin (.275) and Moustakas (.225) all have huge ISO marks this year against RHP.
MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Main Slate
If you thought the four-game early slate pitching was rough, well the main slate might actually be worse! Zero chance I am paying a premium for Nick Pivetta or Steven Matz against Toronto and Boston’s offenses. Honestly, the arm I feel best about when we consider pricing is likely Vincent Velasquez ($7.5K) against the Marlins.
I normally would not go this route, but I do think the Dodgers bullpen game could be an interesting true punt option on this slate if Edwin Uceta gets the opening nod.
Uceta has operated as a long man out of the pen, throwing 54 pitches and 3 innings in his last outing and if we get confirmation that he is the “starter” today, I think he offers serious upside at $4K as he would operate as a multi-inning arm versus a true “opener.”
Much like the early slate, the main slate is all about offense and I am going right back to the match-up I highlighted yesterday with the Dodgers against RHP Merrill Kelly who got bumped back a day. Kelly is giving up a 51% HC rate this year with a 5+ xFIP and that hard contact and power is given up equally to both sides of the plate.
So let’s go right back to the well with Mookie, Muncy and Turner and if we get a cheap punt like Tsutsugo in the heart of the line-up like he was last night, it opens up a world of flexibility in our builds.
If you have followed Picks and Pivots this season, you know I have been on the Steven Matz regression train for weeks. Listen, Matz can be a solid arm when the match-up aligns but against a right-handed power team, he can be a batting practice arm – and well, the Red Sox are arguably one of the worst spots he could ask for.
With Enrique Hernandez, JD Martinez, Xander Boegarts, Christian Vazquez and Hunter Renfroe in the heart of this order you have .200+ ISO bats staring at you in every turn and Matz is an arm that has given up nearly a .300 ISO mark to RHB since the start of last year.
Pitching in Dunedin today against this line-up – yikes, good luck my friend.
MLB DFS Picks and Pivots – The Wrap Up
To summarize these two four game slates – well, pitching is gross and you are going to want all the bats. Easy enough?
Honestly, I love slates like this because we all are dealt the same hand and picking from the same player pool. These are the ideal slates to take shots on arms in my opinion and fade the “safe” picks that lack slate-breaking upside and instead absorb risk for arms to build around the big bats!
Good luck tonight all! Let’s keep that hot streak rolling! Come join the Win Daily Sports Team – grab a Gold Membership and take advantage of all the tools, articles, and expert coaching we can give you to make you a consistent winner in DFS.
Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @2LockSports and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!
