Gary Gustafson 
Welcome to the Thursday, July 8th edition of MLB DFS Picks and Pivots where we dive into the top fantasy baseball plays and slate strategy to help you take down tournaments all season long at Win Daily Sports!
If you are new to MLB DFS Picks and Pivots, the goal of this article is not simply to list out the “best plays” but rather to walk through the context of the slate and help you identify the best arms and stacks to build around for MLB DFS tournament play. We will use DraftKings pricing as our anchor and help you get a head start on your winning builds!
Early Slate Breakdown
Welcome into another split slate MLB DFS Picks and Pivots edition where we get a mid-day three-game slate that actually has some intriguing GPP paths and makes it a worthwhile GPP gamble despite the small player pool size.
I think the first choice you need to come to is which pair of arms you want to anchor to and with Jake Faria/Chi Chi Gonzalez representing a third of the player pool, my guess is most will anchor to the foursome of Lance McCullers Jr., Frankie Montas, Jordan Montgomery, and Logan Gilbert.
No matter which path you chose, my recommendation would be this – use two and stack against the other two – this way you are getting the most direct leverage on a small slate.
Yesterday was a great example of how we can use ownership projections in our Discord to adjust on small slates and that is exactly what we did on Wednesday when we realized that Drew Smyly and Kyle Gibson were the chalk pairing and allowed us to pivot to lower owned options in Sonny Gray and Lance Lynn around our low-owned White Sox stacks.
Today – I think we may have the ability to do much of the same, and I think the likely chalk arm is Jordan Montgomery against the Seattle Mariners. So how do we attack the Yankees left-hander to gain direct leverage?
The short answer is we want the right-handers, as Montgomery has given up a .175 ISO and a near 40% HC rate to RHB since the start of last season and the best play here is Mitch Haniger. This season, Haniger has a massive .272 ISO and 50% hard contact rate against LHP and I think pairing him with either of the Mariners catchers (Luis Torrens or Tom Murphy) who have similar .230+ ISO marks and 40-50% HC rates is the ideal mini-stack starting point.
If you dig into the pitch types for Montgomery, the cutter and the sinker are pitches he throws 40% of the time to RHB and both have .230+ ISO marks and it is no surprise to see Haniger jump off the page with both pitches. Haniger has a .200 ISO and 70% HC rate against the sinker and a .727 ISO and 42% HC rate against the cutter. I think you can guess, I am calling a Haniger home run here.
On a short slate like this, we need to be super strategic in how we stack, and I think one of the most underrated strategies in MLB DFS is to prioritize visiting team stacks that get you 9 innings of guaranteed at-bats.
You may not think it is much, but that one inning means our batters get an 11% increase to rack up at-bats and as you all know – ANY points on a small slate can have MASSIVE swings. We were all sweating it in Discord yesterday as a few subs were up top in GPP’s and a Nate Lowe single late in the game resulted in a $300 swing in their cash position. A single – that’s it.
So that basically brings us to two choices – go all in and stack the visiting Yankees or the road Athletics.
The fact that one faces a heavy ground ball machine in Lance McCullers Jr. and one is taking on a rookie in Logan Gilbert who has surrendered a 45% hard contact rate with fly-ball tendencies tells you which way I am leaning.
So we have worked our way backward – game stacking the Yankees/Mariners bats – attacking Montgomery chalk and stacking the road team, which means we are likely anchoring to a Lance McCullers Jr. and Frankie Montas pitching duo.
Listen, the match-up for both is not one I would likely go after on a full slate but I also would argue they have the highest ceiling of any of the arms today and with a massive pitcher’s umpire in Bill Welke by the plate, who calls 12% more strikes than the average umpire, I think this is the most direct path to take early.
Let’s keep an eye on ownership and talk through plays in Discord – ownership very rarely plays out like I expect it should so if we get thrown a curveball, let’s use Discord to talk through it!
Main Slate Overview
We turn to the 7 game MLB DFS Picks and Pivots Main Slate and well, as you can see below from our friend, Mark Paquette – this could end up a 4 game slate in no time.
After Jacob deGrom’s mess two nights ago and Zack Wheeler struggling through the rain in Wrigley, I think we can all agree we are sick of trying to play amateur weatherman and tonight rain could take away not only the best offense (Blue Jays) but an under-priced chalky SP2 in Alek Manoah.
So here is what I am going to do – I am going to cross off the three games with rain risk and start my research process where everyone may have to pivot to later. This way if the rain plays out we will already have that clear path outlined.
Not only does San Diego have the Channel 4 News team headlined by Veronica Corningstone, but they also have clear skies and Max Scherzer versus Yu Darvish tonight.
If this really ends up as a four-game slate, I am going to simply lock in the two best arms and go double ace with 30%+ K rate starting pitchers with no weather concerns. That’s it – that’s the analysis. If you treat this like a four-game slate, there are simply no other arms that come close to the ceiling these two have and the reality is, we can get strong offenses alongside them with ease.
So we need value stacks with power upside to make this work huh?
Welcome in JA Happ to the mound as Jared’s favorite MLB DFS punching bag and the Detroit Tigers look like our path to making double aces work with ease.
Happ has given up a .283 ISO, 45% FB rate, and 44% HC rate to RHB this season and a 2.21 HR/9 rate so if you bat from the right side and play for the Tigers, I am interested.
Eric Haase has a massive .510 ISO and 55% HC rate against LHP this season and his C/OF eligibility on DK becomes an amazing piece to use in your core to give you the most flexibility in your Draftkings builds. Shifting him to OF would allow you to go with a double catcher Tigers stack and use Jake Rogers alongside him, who has a .400 ISO and 55% fly-ball rate against lefties this season. Seriously – who else is starting their builds with TWO Tigers catchers – we are.
Finding a secondary stack to go alongside the Tigers tonight and staying away from rain risk, brings me to the Philadelphia Phillies against Adbert Alzolay in Wrigley Field.
Alzolay has one massive red flag – he cannot get lefties out. How does a .339 ISO and 50% hard contact rate sound? Well, probably good if you want to unleash the Phillies left-handed batters.
Alzolay uses his slider nearly 45% of the time against lefties and both Bryce Harper and Didi Gregorious have .300 and .220 ISO marks respectively against that pitch type.
The sinker is the next weapon of choice for the Cubs right-hander and with a .267 ISO mark allowed and a 50% HC rate this season against it, maybe he should not throw it? Well, again – unless you plan on using Bryce Harper, who has a .342 ISO and 55% HC rate against that pitch type.
Honestly, how is Harper not homering multiple times tonight?
Now – one key here tonight, is the status of Odubel Herrera and a big reason is that his continued absence would give us a $2K tree square in Travis Jankowski. The Phillies reserve OF has a .300 ISO against RHP this season and his minimum priced salary opens the door to a double ace/Bryce Harper/Tigers stack with ease.
MLB DFS Picks and Pivots – The Wrap-Up
Alright, boys and girls, this MLB DFS Picks and Pivots slate look like a good one and while rain may cause some Main Slate issues, I think we have a path to simply avoid it and still capture massive upside.
Make sure you get into Discord today, especially early, so we can break down ownership and strategy and keep the Win Daily screenshots coming!
Good luck tonight all! Let’s keep that hot streak rolling! Come join the Win Daily Sports Team – grab a Gold Membership and take advantage of all the tools, articles, and expert coaching we can give you to make you a consistent winner in DFS.
Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @2LockSports and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!
