DFSGhost 
Welcome back MLB DFS fans! Tonight, we have another solid slate on DraftKings with big prizes pools to take down so let’s get started with our top MLB DFS picks for today’s slate!
Looking back at Wednesday night’s slate, the winning GPP lineup in the $100K to first GPP on DK ate a bit of chalk with Gerrit Cole as their SP1 but went off the wall with a Giants stack against Chris Paddack at essentially no ownership as they got 4 HR’s from the trio of Donovan Solano, Alex Dickerson and Mike Yastremski!
For those of you new to Picks and Pivots, the goal of this MLB DFS article each and every day is to provide you a “First Look” overview of the slate where we use DraftKings pricing as a baseline to help us get started. Rather than simply write out the “top plays,” this article will focus on slate strategy and roster construction with a GPP mindset to help you get started on your initial builds. Without further ado, let’s dive into today’s slate!
MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Starting Pitcher Breakdown:
Looking over this slate initially, I was tempted to work backward as it was clear to me that my priority on this 8 game slate would be offense and thus I needed to find salary relief options to make it work.
So yes, you can make arguments for Happ, Berrios and Bieber today but my builds are taking me down to value town so I can stack up the big time bats.
Brady Singer ($6.8K) may end up a name today that gains serious traction and ownership and it is not hard to see why. Singer is just two years removed from being a first-round pick for the Royals and made quite the impression in his first start this season against the Indians where he struck out 7 batters, giving up 2 ER on his way to 18+ DK points.
Today Singer gets a far easier match-up against the Detroit Tigers who will roll out a projected line-up with a 26% K rate against right-handed pitching last season. Singer racked up an impressive 17.5% swinging strike rate his first start, relying solely on a fastball/slider combination with his slider being the key swing and miss pitch as he threw it nearly 48% of the time and was able to get a 58% whiff rate on it.
Now the sample size is clearly microscopic being one game, but if we look at how the Tigers handle the slider from RHP, you will see that 8 of the 9 projected hitters have a 35% or higher whiff rate against that pitch type back to last season.
The guys at PitchersList.com did an amazing GIF breakdown of his first start and I highly recommend taking the time to read/watch it to get an idea of what Singer looks like. Maybe he is popular because the game log watchers will see what he did against Cleveland, but go watch that start and you will see it is more than just a game log in your DK app that is telling me to play this guy!
While Singer may be my favorite value play, I don’t think it is crazy to double-dip in this range and use someone like Kevin Gausman ($6.1K) as your “SP2.” Now DraftKings right now has Gausman as the PLR but the Giants came out after last night’s game and said he would draw the start in this game after throwing 58 pitches on Friday in a long relief role.
Gausman is a strong K option considering his price point as it is rare to get a punt play who had a 25% K rate and 15% swinging strike rate the previous season. Gausman saw his K rate spike last season as he relied more frequently on his splitter, specifically to LHB where he threw it 45% of the time which led to his 28.6% K rate against lefties.
The Padres will likely have 5 LHB in the lineup today and this line-up is one that sported a 24.2% K rate against RHP last season. Add in the boost of pitching at home in San Francisco and a Gausman/Singer pairing gives me all the bats I want.
MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Bats and Stacks:
With a slate high IRT of 6.4 as of this writing, the New York Yankees are going to be a popular stacking target against LHP John Means and the Orioles and are a major reason why you have the need to pay down at pitcher.
Now Means is not a bad arm per se as he was able to really limit hard contact last season but this is his first start after dealing with an arm injury pre-season and the expectation is that he will have a pitch limit. What that means is after Mr. Means – we get the oh so terrible Orioles bullpen to feast on.
The O’s bullpen was the worst in baseball last season with a 1.73 HR/9 rate and a 5.8 ERA allowed and in 16 innings this season so far they are somehow worse – with a tidy 7.88 ERA to begin the year.
So yeah – there is a reason Vegas has the Yankees putting up a touchdown here against Baltimore. Go ahead and stack all the big bats – Judge, Stanton, Torres (because hey, its Camden Yards after all) and use someone like Gary Sanchez to fill your catcher slot with high upside. DraftKings allows you to stack five Yankees hitters – that seems like a good idea.
Since Anthony Rendon has re-entered the line-up for the Angels they have scored 10 and 7 runs as his bat provides some serious power protection to the Trout/Ohtani/Upton collective. Tonight the Angels get a lefty in Marco Gonzales and well – going right back to Rendon/Trout seems like a no brainer.
This duo had a .300 ISO against LHP last season and not that we needed to, but if we look at the pitch types for Gonzales, he relies heavily on his sinker to righties. Do you know what Rendon does to sinkers from lefties? Well last season he had a decent .510 ISO mark with a 60% hard contact rate and an average distance…good Lord, I cannot even type this without laughing…. of 350+ feet.
The crazy part is, the sample size is considerable at 41 batted ball events! I am calling my shot here with a Rendon bomb – lock it in!
MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: The Wrap Up
Pay. For. Bats.Today.
That is the wrap-up. The Yankees stack with a Trout/Rendon chaser is all sorts of awesome and paying down for guys like Singer/Gausman give you the salary room to do so while not sacrificing your K upside.
I will be in Discord all day talking baseball AND remember, we have NBA DFS back tonight too!
Let’s get it tonight my friends!
Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @2LockSports and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate as sports FINALLY return.
