Gary Gustafson 
Welcome to the Thursday, July 29th edition of MLB DFS Picks and Pivots where we dive into the top fantasy baseball plays and slate strategy to help you take down tournaments all season long at Win Daily Sports!
If you are new to MLB DFS Picks and Pivots, the goal of this article is not simply to list out the “best plays” but rather to walk through the context of the slate and help you identify the best arms and stacks to build around for MLB DFS tournament play. We will use DraftKings pricing as our anchor and help you get a head start on your winning builds!
Early Slate Breakdown
We get our Thursday going with another split slate MLB DFS Picks and Pivots afternoon with a 6 (maybe 5) game slate that begins at noon and the biggest question mark is if we see the Nationals/Phillies game even play due to COVID outbreaks on the Nationals.
For the sake of simplicity – let’s assume this game does not play and honestly, even if it does, it is going to be a 7 inning doubleheader so it is likely the only interest we would have is on the pitchers if Mad Max or Zack Wheeler takes the mound and with rain expected to impact both games, maybe crossing this game off is the best course of action anyway.
The other tricky party here once again is the timing of these games – as the slate starts at 12:05 PM EST and three of the games on this slate start after 2 PM EST. We saw this yesterday where 50% of the games on the early slate did not have confirmed lineups before lock and this could very well be the case again today.
My recommendation once again then is to either fully front load or back load your stacks to give you maximum flexibilty. Stacking the Mets for example at 12:10 PM EST with the Dodgers at 3:45 PM EST is not ideal because you will have half your lineup locked in and if the late lineup doesn’t work as you planned, you are going to scramble to suboptimal stacking options.
Now back to the Mets – because honestly, I think this is where the slate starts for me and will drive much of my decision-making. The match-up against LHP Drew Smyly is one I want to attack as Smyly ranks in the bottom 10 of all Major League arms with at least 80 IP this season in hard contact allowed, fly-ball rate and HR/9 rate.
What is interesting about Smyly is that his splits are well – not really splits at all – he gives up .200+ ISO marks to both sides of the plate with nearly identical 45% hard contact rates and 40-43% fly ball rates. Even his pitch types are the same as he relies on a fastball/curveball mix nearly 90% of the time no matter which side of the plate is up.
While the right-handed batters may be the obvious spots to attack with James McCann, Pete Alonso and JD Davis – do NOT overlook the lefties for the Mets here as this is where I think you can get a massive advantage in GPP’s.
Smyly actually has a higher HR/9 rate to LHB this season at 2.3 versus 1.5 to RHB and the Mets lefties all hit left-handed pitching well, especially the pitch type on Smyly. Against the curveball, Brandon Nimmo (.429), Jeff McNeil (.235) and Michael Conforto (.190) all have strong ISO marks and against the low-velocity fastball, Nimmo (.571) and Conforto (.200) both stand out as great L/L plays.
If we are stacking the Mets – then I need to stay with early stacks and so locking in the Yankees and going full New Yawk on this early slate maybe my best route. Now, I am a believer in the talent of Luis Patino as a pitcher but I also trust the data and what it tells me is that he is giving up lots of loud contact and we saw that against the Indians where left-handed batters had a 50% HC rate and RHB had a 45% HC rate with both sides of the plate showing elevated fly ball rates.
Patino is a two-pitch arm, featuring a high-velocity fastball and slider with the slider being the big swing and miss offering. If you look at batted ball profiles, Aaron Judge stands out as one of the best plays on this slate. Against the high-velocity fastball, Judge has a .522 ISO and 48% HC rate, and against the slider his .227 ISO/44% HC rate lead the team.
We will need to wait and see what this Yankees lineup looks like and if Joey Gallo is able to suit up – but the more I look at the top of this Yankee line-up with it being right-handed heavy against a pitcher who has hard contact and fly ball tendencies – we could see the Yankees get to the youngster with some early long balls.
Working our way backward into the arms – I think you simply NEED to anchor to one top-end arm as your SP1 due to the strong options with Gerrit Cole and Carlos Rodon up top as Adam Strangis laid out in Starting Rotation.
Going down for our SP2 is where I plan to attack today and I think Alec Mills ($6.3K) is an intriguing case for the Cubs against the Reds in Wrigley with the wind blowing in.
Yes I know Joey Votto is on some Barry Bonds type run right now but as our resident Reds expert in Discord, Jimmy, always says – use arms against the Reds on the getaway day!
Mills just faced the Reds in Cincinnati on July 2nd, striking out 9 Reds on his way to a 24 DK point outing and if you look at his pitch mix, while the sinker was still his primary offering – nearly 40% of the time – his slider and changeup were used nearly the same amount and they generated a 50% whiff rate.
Mills really feasted on the K-heavy bottom of the Reds order and with Aristedes Aquino and his 47% K rate against RHB now in the heart of the order, I think if he can avoid Votto, there is a path once again to a ceiling game. Over the last 30 days – 7 of the 8 Reds projected hitters have a 25% or higher K rate against RHP while also sporting a GB rate that is 5% higher than the fly ball rate. Against a sinkerballer with the wind blowing in – I love this spot for Mills today as a low-owned SP2.
Main Slate Overview
The 5 game MLB DFS Picks and Pivots Main Slate is one that is loaded with rain issues with Milwaukee/Pittsburgh and Toronto/Boston being the biggest risk areas tonight and on a 5 game slate, that could have massive ramifications.
Now add on the fact that pitching is straight gross and you almost get backed into this build where you land on Montas/Musgrove as your two pitchers on DK by default.
What it likely means is you need some cheaper stacks and this is where the Orioles stand out to me against Casey Mize and a terrible Tigers bullpen. Attacking Mize has been simple this year – you want every and all lefties as Mize has a massive .232 ISO and 51% HC rate against LHB this season which makes Cedric Mullins and DJ Stewart primary plays for me on this slate.
However, the place I really want to plant my flag tonight is in the late-night hammer – the San Diego Padres – against LHP Kyle Freeland. If you just look at the talent of the bats on this stack, it is hard to argue for me that the Padres are the best pure hitting stack on the slate ESPECIALLY if the Blue Jays game has risk.
Against a lefty who has surrendered a .200 ISO and 42% HC rate, this is the spot you load up on Padres and it all starts with Manny Machado and Fernando Tatis Jr.
The nice part about this stack is how you can really attack the mid-range to build around the two big bats as Adam Frazier ($3.4K), Austin Nola ($3.2K) and Jurickson Profar ($2.3K) give you cheap options to round out your stack with a true wrap-around build with Nola/Profar at the bottom before you move to the top 3 in Frazier/Machado/Tatis.
MLB DFS Picks and Pivots – The Wrap-Up
Looking at these two MLB DFS slates today – the Early Slate has the better build paths but the main slate has the better contest options, unfortunately. On both slates – my goal is to avoid uncertainty – on the early slate that means the Nationals and on the Main it means avoiding the rain which really limits your player pool but I think it is easily doable.
Good luck tonight all! Let’s keep that hot streak rolling! Come join the Win Daily Sports Team – grab a Gold Membership and take advantage of all the tools, articles, and expert coaching we can give you to make you a consistent winner in DFS.
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