Brian Tulloch 
Welcome to the Thursday, July 22nd edition of MLB DFS Picks and Pivots where we dive into the top fantasy baseball plays and slate strategy to help you take down tournaments all season long at Win Daily Sports!
If you are new to MLB DFS Picks and Pivots, the goal of this article is not simply to list out the “best plays” but rather to walk through the context of the slate and help you identify the best arms and stacks to build around for MLB DFS tournament play. We will use DraftKings pricing as our anchor and help you get a head start on your winning builds!
Main Slate Breakdown
Welcome into an 8 game MLB DFS Picks and Pivots Main Slate on Thursday where we get an all-clear weather day and well, another disgusting pitching slate. Seriously, Jacob deGrom goes on the IL and you realize how you never want to play a single pitcher in MLB DFS these days!
Even when we have big names as we did last night with McCullers/Ray and listen, we have it again tonight with Buehler/Manaea – the question we have to keep asking is if they are really worth it? Night after night, slate after slate, we are seeing value arms that drive 15-20 DK point outings and when the “ace” arms are underperforming – you simply don’t have the same opportunity cost to miss at your pitching spots.
With that being said – can we look to the bottom of the player pool tonight with Luis Patino ($6.5K) who is getting called up to make the start against the Indians.
Patino is one of the top pitching prospects in baseball and was the centerpiece of the Blake Snell deal that sent him to San Diego and when you dig into Patino’s stuff – you can see why.
In AAA this year, Patino has 41 K’s in 29 innings of work, a 33.7% K rate, and in his most recent start for the Bulls, he went 6 innings, threw 90 pitches, and struck out 7, so we know he is stretched out.
If Jose Ramirez remains sidelined, this Indians opposing lineup is one I think we can and should attack, and with the K pedigree of Patino at this price point, I could argue he is one of the best pure pitching plays on the slate.
Let’s stay right here because not only do I love Patino but today my friends – is a Rays day!
With Cal Quantrill on the mound and the Rays being on the road, we get 9 innings of Tampa Bay at-bats which you know is a Picks and Pivots favorite. Quantrill’s splits are significant – as he has a .263 ISO, 45% fly-ball rate, and 41% HC rate to left-handed batters.
Pitch type-wise – Quantrill is going to rely heavily on his sinker, which he throws 35% of the time to LHB and is giving up a crazy high .400 ISO mark against. Guess who hammers the sinker? Yep – Austin Meadows – who has a .256 ISO and a team-high 342 average distance batted ball on that pitch type. Bombs away captain!
The other left-handed batters here today for Tampa also have massive hard contact rates against the sinker – with Brandon Lowe (47%), Ji-Man Choi (57%), Kevin Kiermeir (40%) and Taylor Walls (67%).
Want a hot take? Skip Wander Franco in your Rays stack today and use Taylor Walls instead in a wrap-around stack to be different. Franco has a ZERO ISO mark against RHP thus far and his 30% HC rate is the lowest on the team. Walls meanwhile has a sneaky strong batted ball profile, with a .308 ISO and average batted-ball distance of 327 feet against the sinker.
Adam Strangis mentioned the Twins as his favorite stack against Andrew Heaney and it is hard to argue considering the left-hander is giving up a .207 ISO mark and a massive 50% HC rate to right-handed batters.
I LOVE LOVE LOVE the correlation that the Twins right-handed batters offer around a Rays stack and this is the exact path I intend on rocking today!
MLB DFS Picks and Pivots – The Wrap-Up
I love how this 8 game MLB DFS Picks and Pivots slate is coming together and this slate size and the contest offerings on DraftKings make me really excited for what we can build!
The Rays/Twins correlated stack alongside a cheap SP2 in Luis Patino gives me the ability to pay up for an SP1 while still loading up on all the bats I want – and that is the path that seems to be proving success in recent weeks on a consistent basis.
Good luck tonight all! Let’s keep that hot streak rolling! Come join the Win Daily Sports Team – grab a Gold Membership and take advantage of all the tools, articles, and expert coaching we can give you to make you a consistent winner in DFS.
Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @2LockSports and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!
