Gary Gustafson 
Welcome back MLB DFS fans! Tonight, we have another solid slate on DraftKings with big prizes pools to take down so let’s get started with our top MLB DFS picks for today’s slate!
For those of you new to Picks and Pivots, the goal of this MLB DFS article each and every day is to provide you a “First Look” overview of the slate where we use DraftKings pricing as a baseline to help us get started. Rather than simply write out the “top plays,” this article will focus on slate strategy and roster construction with a GPP mindset to help you get started on your initial builds. Without further ado, let’s dive into today’s slate!
We have two MLB DFS slates today on DraftKings, one which starts at 3:10 PM EST and the “Main” which starts at 6:05 PM. Considering we have late swap and the last game starts at 8, I would have liked to have seen DK combined the two slates to make this more appealing but it also gives us two chances to build lineups on a Thursday so let’s see what we have.
MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Early Slate Breakdown:
With this first slate being only three games, I think it will be far more critical to talk game theory and lineup construction than simply the top plays here.
The three-game early slate includes a game in Coors Field and that alone is going to dominate not only the ownership but the roster construction as well. With everyone pushing to jam in the Rockies, it is going to lead to a very similar player pool at pitcher – ie. the cheap ones.
As an example, if you stack the top 5 in the Rockies projected order – Blackmon, Dahl, Arenado, Story and Kemp – that costs you nearly half your salary space on DK and it is going to push you to the cheapest pitching options as a result.
So be prepared for a whole lot of Rockies stacks with Taijuan Walker ($5.5K) today. The game log watchers are going to open up Walker’s page and see his last game where he struck out 8 A’s and racked up 34 points and happily click him in with their Rockies stacks and move on.
Here is the thing about Walker’s last game though – his swinging strike rate of just 6% was nearly identical to the 4% rate in his first start where he gave up 5 ER in just 3 innings to the Astros. So Walker essentially threw strikes and the A’s kept the bat on their shoulder as if they were an 8 year old Little League team – cool, got it.
So if Walker becomes the chalky pitching pick in order to afford the Rockies bats, why not stack the Angels against him for the ultimate leverage with a team that has a 5+ IRT on the slate.
With Shohei Ohtani expected to DH, the Angels will roll out a line-up with four batters sporting a .200+ ISO mark against RHP right in the middle of their lineup, including Ohtani, Mike Trout, Anthony Rendon and Brian Goodwin.
Someone like Rendon becomes a fascinating low-owned pivot off Arenado against a lefty in Coors as Rendon is only $100 less than his Rockies counterpart. The easy answer would be find the $100 for Nolan – the GPP part of me says, play Rendon at a fraction of the ownership!
Not only can you get different with your stack, but paying up for pitching on this slate will make you different by default as those who stack the Rockies, mathematically won’t be able to get to the higher dollar arms. Dylan Bundy ($9.3K) has the K make-up to deliver a high upside performance with 7-8 K’s in each of his first two starts, a 13% swinging strike rate since the start of last season and a match-up against a Mariners team with a 24% team K rate against RHP.
On this smaller slate, going with a Bundy/Angels lineup will be the kind of pivot you need off Coors field without getting too cute and gives you a roster build that has every bit the upside to match the Rockies offense.
MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Main Slate Overview:
Moving to the Main Slate, we move on from Coors Field but we still have some serious offense on this slate and without a single arm over $10K on DraftKings, we have an easier path to more balanced builds.
At the top today we have both Carlos Carrasco and Luis Castillo, two arms with 30%+ K rates thus far in 2020 who have both put up 29 DK point ceiling type games already. Carrasco is the slight home favorite and if Mike Moustakas remains out of the lineup for the Reds, I would argue he has the easier opposition path of the two top tier arms.
Flipping all the way to the bottom of the pricing tier – we have Josh Lindblom ($5.8K) who in his first start of the season, flashed the swing and miss ability (18.8% swinging-strike rate) that he showed in the KBO. While his opposition today in the White Sox is a dangerous team they do have a near 26% K rate against RHP since the start of last season and with his price point being so low, he gives you the ability to pay it off with a strong K outing tonight.
Going high/low at pitcher tonight gives you the ability to stack the game with the highest expected offensive output in the Yankees/Phillies which opens with a slate high 10 IRT.
The Yankees are going to be the Coors of this slate, although this spot is more about talent than it is match-up. Zach Eflin has always had significant splits – big time struggled and LHB and the ability to generate weak contact and ground balls to righties. Well, the Yankees are almost entirely right-handed so the match-up on paper does not sync up perfectly but fading Aaron Judge and company here seems scary in Citizens Bank Ballpark.
The other side of this game is actually what catches my eye as the Phillies get the same ballpark boost and the pricing against LHP Jordan Montgomery makes this is easy/cheap secondary stack on DK today.
The Phillies lineup is loaded with lefty mashers, with 6 batters in the projected line-up with .240+ ISO marks against left-handed pitching and four of those are under $4K on DK today including Hoskins, Didi, Segura and Kingery.
I love the idea of paying up for one SP1 today and then game stacking this Yankees/Phillies game as the pricing/positions correlate perfectly.
MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Wrap up
The early slate is far more game theory and the idea of taking calculated GPP risks, while the Main Slate we can play far more straight. Paying up for Carrasco/Castillo and game stacking the Yankees/Phillies, gives you some serious upside and the punt play SP2 in Lindblom gives you the salary flexibility to make it all work!
Stick around in Discord today and let’s talk some baseball!
Let’s get it tonight my friends!
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