Gary Gustafson 
Welcome to the Thursday edition of MLB DFS Picks and Pivots where we dive into the top fantasy baseball plays and slate strategy to help you take down tournaments all season long at Win Daily Sports!
If you are new to MLB DFS Picks and Pivots, the goal of this article is not simply to list out the “best plays” but rather to walk through the context of the slate and help you identify the best arms and stacks to build around for MLB DFS tournament play. We will use DraftKings pricing as our anchor and help you get a head start on your winning builds!
Early Slate Breakdown
Welcome into a split slate MLB DFS Picks and Pivots Thursday where we have 6 games on the Early Slate to break down as we continue this crazy hot streak! The Rays/Braves/Ohtani core last night was lighting up the green screens in our Win Daily Discord after our monster night on Tuesday – as they say – never leave the table on a heater!
If we step back and look at this early slate, what stands out to me is just how weak the starting pitching pool is and I think there are more plays to avoid than to consider. As a result, I think the prudent path for GPP play is to anchor to the perceived safety and potential ceiling of the top-end arms and let the landmines be the rest of the field’s problem.
Zack Wheeler ($10.2K) is the top-dog on this slate against Arizona, one with the demonstrated 30-40 DK point ceiling that could set a cash line on his own on a small slate like this and for that reason, I think he will be a priority play for most.
The projected Arizona line-up has a 27% K rate the last month against RHP, and overall this is a team that ranks in the top 5 over the last 30 days in strikeout rate with 3-4 players in the line-up sporting 30% or higher K rates without including the opposing pitcher.
Now Wheeler has not been the same dominant arm in this time frame, with just a 24.5% K rate, down from his 30% mark on the season – however, his swing and miss ability combined with his high ground ball rate and soft contact, makes him the perfect floor/ceiling SP1 to anchor to.
If you simply look at recent form, where it is a “con” when arguing Wheeler’s case – it is quite the opposite for Dylan Cease ($9.1K) and Luis Garcia ($8.4K).
Over the last 30 days in Major League Baseball, Garcia’s 33.9% K rate is the best mark in all of baseball while Mr. Cease sits at 33.6% which is 3rd among all qualified starters. If we simply look at the K ceiling and recent form – it is hard to argue there is a better duo on this slate and frankly in all of baseball based on the last month of results.
Now the flip side is where Wheeler gets a top 5 K match-up in Arizona, this duo faces off against Oakland and Kansas City and they happen to both rank in the bottom 5 in all of baseball over the last month in K rate – so which do you prefer- recent form or matchup?
The case for Cease is actually a very strong one when you dive into the opposing line-up as the A’s are likely to roll out their usual right-handed heavy line-up with 6 of the 9 batters from the right side. Over the last month, Cease has racked up a 38.7% K rate against RHB with just a .070 ISO allowed and he is getting to this ceiling due to an increased usage of his slider to right-handed hatters, throwing it nearly 47% of the time with a 43% whiff rate.
Garcia on the flip side has inflated his K metrics with a lofty 38.9% K rate against left-handed batters the last month and the Royals today are likely to have 4 batters from that side. While the right-side of the plate is not nearly as high – let’s not dismiss the 29% K rate to RHB over the same time period and the 46% GB rate and 22% soft contact rate he generates by relying heavily on his cutter (44% of the time) to RHB gives him solid safety with minimal ISO concerns.
On short slates like this – ownership and playing strategy is going to be a key determining factor in how we approach our pitching par on DraftKings but hopefully, what I have shown you is we have three clear elite potential options up today that we can use in the same basic lineup builds and be able to mix and match as we get an idea of where ownership lands and how the opposing lineups break.
Now where the pitching pool on the Early Slate may be negotiable, the top stack is not. Yes – welcome to Picks and Pivots – where we stack the Tampa Bay Rays every single day and make money while everyone else pretends they are not the best offense in baseball.
As I mentioned before – we have been red-hot this week across the Win Daily Family and the core of that has been stacking the Rays against the Orioles putrid pitching staff each day at single-digit to mid-teens ownership. Why people refuse to go to this team – I simply do not know, but I am going right back to it again today.
Baltimore right-hander Jorge Lopez has been getting waxed the last month from the left side of the plate to the tune of a .333 ISO and 52% HC rate and his reliance on the sinker sets up perfectly in the Rays wheelhouse. Lopez throws the sinker 52% of the time to LHB with a .500 ISO mark and 53% HC rate allowed and the lefties in the Rays line-up all hammer this pitch type with all of Brandon Lowe, Wander Franco, and Austin Meadows with .200+ ISO marks, 40-50% HC rates, and high contact/low whiff rates.
While I do not want to necessarily pick on the right side of the plate too much – it is hard to overlook Nelson Cruz when you consider Lopez’s approach of sinker/curveball that he used nearly 70% of the time to RHB. Cruz has a 45% hard contact rate and over .300 ISO mark against those pitch types and allows you the opportunity to complete a nice Rays stack.
Now paying up for arms AND the Rays stack means we have to look to stay cheap with our secondary stack and on a day game slate that is typically far easier to do as we get bench players thrust into starting roles. One team that has is loaded with projected cheap bats in a strong match-up is the Houston Astros against LHP MikeMinor.
While the top of the Astros lineup is where the typical focus is – the bottom of that line-up with Chas McCormick, Jake Meyers and Martin Maldonado is where we can turn our attention to today with a punt mini-stack at the bottom of the order.
Over the last 30 days, Minor has been hit hard by RHB to the tune of a .245 ISO mark and 42% HC rate with his two primary offerings (low 90’s fastball and slider) being hit at .300 ISO levels by right-handed batters.
In a small sample size, both McCormick and Maldy have hit the slider well from LHP with Chas touting a .333 ISO and 56% HC rate with Maldy at .200 and 47%. The key here is getting the cheap stack and while most may be hesitant to stack the bottom of the order, remember that the Astros are the road team so they get a guaranteed 9 innings of at-bats today which makes the bottom of the order more appealing.
Main Slate Breakdown
The four-game MLB DFS Picks and Pivots Main Slate has the smaller player pool but the better contest selection on DraftKings and there are some really interesting options as we start to dig in.
Much like the early slate, this is a top-heavy pitching pool and I think living in the top range with Brandon Woodruff and Luis Castillo is the right path. Both arms are hovering around a 30% K rate the last month of action and what is interesting is that they are showing essentially no splits bias with similar K profiles to both sides of the plate in that time frame.
Woodruff struck out 10 Cardinals the last time he faced that back in May on his way to 33 DK points, while Luis Castillo makes his first start against the Marlins this year and comes into this spot in great recent form with 20-30 DK points in 5 of his last 6 starts.
Note – DK has Walker Buehler listed as the probable arm for the Dodgers but they have confirmed it will be a bullpen game.
Now enough pitching talk – let’s get down to the real meat and potatoes. Welcome, to Jon Lester Day my friends.
If you are new to Picks and Pivots – my love/hate relationship with the veteran lefty is an ongoing joke where the advanced metrics have always said to stack against him and somehow he escapes trouble just to spite me. Yes, I truly believe his performances are directed and motivated by me and me alone.
In all seriousness, attacking Lester is the right move on most slates and even more so on a four gamer where the “gas cans” are few and far between. The right-handed batters are the focus with Lester’s splits with Willy Adames, Eduardo Escobar, Avisail Garcia and Manny Pina all sporting .200+ ISO marks against LHP this season and all of Adames, Escobar, and Garcia have .50% or higher hard contact rates.
Now going “double aces” with a Brewers stack is not going to be sneaky – it just won’t be so we need to find ways to get some ownership edge. The one place I could see ownership moving to is Jameson Taillon against the Twins – so a mini-stack as leverage could be the way to get a jump on the field.
Taillon’s been someone we can attack with LHB when he is in Yankee Stadium as he has a near 60% fly ball rate and a 2.7 HR/9 rate. Jorge Polanco is red-hot the last month with a .425 ISO against RHP, a 46% FB rate, and just a 10% soft contact rate with Max Kepler (.257 ISO, 40% FB rate, and just a 6% soft contact rate) not far behind!
The Twins as a team are dirt-cheap on this slate and they allow you to get double-aces with a Brewers core around them with ease with incredibly strong correlation – if Taillon ends up popular, this could be our edge as we go Minnesota home run hunting!
MLB DFS Picks and Pivots – The Wrap-Up
This dual slate of MLB DFS Picks and Pivots sets up for a MONSTER day here at Win Daily Sports as we get a Rays stack in the afternoon and a Lester Day at night – seriously, is it my birthday?
Make sure you get into Discord and let’s talk up ownership and strategy as lineups are released and if you have not – JUMP ON OUR 6 MONTH PROMO NOW! 6 months of our premium subscription gets you the rest of MLB season and the entire NFL season – all for just $33 a month!
Good luck tonight all! Let’s keep that hot streak rolling! Come join the Win Daily Sports Team – grab a Gold Membership and take advantage of all the tools, articles, and expert coaching we can give you to make you a consistent winner in DFS.
Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @2LockSports and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!
