Brian Tulloch 
Welcome to the Thursday edition of MLB DFS Picks and Pivots where we dive into the top fantasy baseball plays and slate strategy to help you take down tournaments all season long at Win Daily Sports!
If you are new to MLB DFS Picks and Pivots, the goal of this article is not simply to list out the “best plays” but rather walk through the context of the slate and help you identify the best arms and stacks to build around for MLB DFS tournament play. We will use DraftKings pricing as our anchor and help you get a head start on your winning builds!
MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Main Slate Breakdown
What better way to spend a Thursday than a 1 PM EST MLB DFS Main Slate and the first round of the Masters – this is what life should always be! The only downside today, is we have some weather concerns that could make this slate a bit dicey as my friend Mark Paquette outlines below.
Now the tricky part of this slate is that the two biggest weather concerns also happen to be the two late games and where the two best arms on the slate are in Jose Berrios and Corbin Burnes.
Berrios and Burnes are the clear-cut best arms on this slate and if the weather was not a concern, I am not sure there would even be a need to look elsewhere. They rank 1-2 in K rate and SS% on this slate and after combining for 23 K’s in their first start against each other, well, they simply have upside that no other pair of arms on this slate has.
The pricing on both these arms under $10K is super soft and the fact remains, on DraftKings, you can lock in both and you still have $3.8K per player for your bats which is MORE than enough.
Honestly the only real risk in my mind is weather but assuming we get the all clear, I have a hard time not taking the clear path today.
Speaking of the clear path – what if I told you – you could stack the two best arms on the slate and easily afford to then stack Coors Field.
Listen, there is nothing sneaky about it but we have a game in Coors Field with an 11 run total, with two pitchers in Merrill Kelly and Jon Gray who both gave up 40% or higher hard contact rates on the season last year – ranking as 2 of the 3 worst arms on this slate in that metric behind only Matt Harvey.
The interesting thing about this game as well, if Ketel Marte sits after leaving last night with an injury, the hitters are basically priced with Trevor Story and Charlie Blackmon up top and then – everyone else is well value city.
I am not trying to be purposely boring but go ahead and try it – lock in Berrios and Burnes and game stack Coors Field. It should not be doable but it is and man, it is hard not to take the clear path on this one assuming the weather holds out.
MLB DFS Picks and Pivots – The Wrap Up
Transparency in DFS writing is critical and it is one of the reasons I love the team we have at Win Daily Sports – we play what we preach and we win or lose with our community. That transparency sometimes is boring – like today – listen, I would LOVE to give you some sneaky low-owned play that makes me look like a genius but I am not sure we have to get cute today.
We can literally take the two best arms on the slate and game stack the best hitting environment in Coors Field.
You ever hear people say to utilize the KISS strategy?
Keep it simple stupid.
Yeah, maybe today is the day we roll with that.
Enjoy this slate – let’s get in our FREE Discord today and chat it up while we dig through our cheat sheets and custom projections here at Win Daily to set up the start of this MLB DFS season with some big wins!
Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @2LockSports and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!
