Gary Gustafson 
Welcome to the Thursday edition of MLB DFS Picks and Pivots where we dive into the top fantasy baseball plays and slate strategy to help you take down tournaments all season long at Win Daily Sports!
If you are new to MLB DFS Picks and Pivots, the goal of this article is not simply to list out the “best plays” but rather walk through the context of the slate and help you identify the best arms and stacks to build around for MLB DFS tournament play. We will use DraftKings pricing as our anchor and help you get a head start on your winning builds!
MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Early Slate Breakdown
We have a split slate Thursday across the MLB DFS landscape here today and it begins with a four game slate that starts at 1:05 PM EST. Personally, I love slates like this because it is far more about thinking through strategy than simply picking the best plays which is ideal for GPP players like myself.
The first decision point you have to make is on Aaron Nola ($10K) – the lone true ace on this slate. Nola has had a up and down year thus far with 4 of his first 5 starts resulting in games where he failed to even hit 20 DK points. The one game he went over? Well that was against the same St. Louis Cardinals team he faces today after dominating them for 10 K’s in a CGSO and 48 DK points.
The reality is, this is not simply a case of game log watching – the Cardinals in many ways are the ideal opponent for a guy like Nola. Nola has always been an arm that dominates right-handed batters and that has held true since the start of last season with a 34.4% K rate to RHB which is 8% more than his mark to lefties. The Cardinals really have no way to alter from being a right-handed dominant line-up as their core bats are Goldy, Arenado and Dejong.
What is interesting, however, if you go back to that 10K outing – it was actually the lefties that propped up Nola’s day as he struck out Matt Carpenter three times, Justin Williams twice, and Dylan Carlson once.
There is no doubt that Nola will be the chalk arm on this slate and while the splits match-up works in his favor, what is interesting is thus far in 2021 his K rate to RHB is far lower than what we saw last season – just 22%. In fact that is not that far off from his 26% mark in 2019 so it is fair to wonder if 2020 was an aberration and if someone like Matt Carpenter is out of the lineup today for the Cardinals, does Nola have that same 10K upside?
I think we can make the argument to fade Nola and we can double down on that leverage by also picking on big bats from St. Louis. Now, this is not a 5 man stack of fringe players – if we are doing this – it starts and ends with the big boys like Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado.
The other way to get leverage here – take the arm on the other side of this game with Kwang-Hyun Kim ($7.3K) and look to get that 4 point swing on DraftKings with the win bonus. From a metrics perspective, Kim does have some merit – with a 32% K rate and 14% swinging-strike rate in two starts this season and he is fresh off a 8K outing against the Reds offense.
Kim may get the added bonus today of Bryce Harper getting the day off after leaving last night with a facial injury and while the CT scan was clear post game, a day game after that seems like the ideal spot to give Harper a day off and well this Philly line-up looks far less intimidating without him in the middle of it.
If Nola is chalk spot #1 – my guess is the Yankees are chalk spot #2 for what seems like the 10th consecutive day against Orioles pitching. Against RHP Jorge Lopez, it makes all the sense in the world as you can make a strong case that Lopez is the worst arm on the slate – giving up nearly 45% hard contact this season while surrendering 6 HRs in his first 17 innings of work this season.
My take here with the Yankees on this short slate is the same approach I took with the Minnesota Twins yesterday afternoon – they are so far and away the best stack on the early slate with the most power upside, that I am willing to eat the chalk – go five deep in my stack and get different elsewhere.
The one spot that I hope does not gain traction today – the starting debut of LHP Shane McClanahan ($5.5K) who is a straight-up filth factory.
The Rays top prospect throws a 100 MPH gas…
…. and has a nasty slider to play off it.
Seriously – filth.
Imagine only paying $5.5K for that kind of stuff? This kid has electric K ability and his dirt cheap price is going to make stacking those big Yankee bats as easy as 1,2,3,4 and 5.
MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Main Slate Breakdown
The Main MLB DFS slate on Thursday may say it is 5 games – but with Detroit/White Sox getting PPD last night and playing a double-header today – DraftKings has removed it from this slate and thus we are left with another 4 game slate!
Much like the early slate, we have one clear ace with Trevor Bauer ($11.3K) on the hill against the Milwaukee Brewers. The difference here is where you can make the case for a Nola fade on the early, you cannot and I will not make that case for Bauer on the main slate.
Bauer has a 38% K rate this year with a 14% SS rate, facing a Milwaukee projected line-up with a 31% K rate against RHP and so yeah, lock him in and we will find other ways to be different.
The SP2 discussion is gross on this slate but I do think there is potential for Martin Perez ($6K) against the Texas Rangers. Listen, this is not news to anyone who has played MLB DFS this season but we can attack the Rangers any time out as they are a boom or bust K happy squad that as you can see from this chart on Statmuse – they have given up massive ceiling games while also resulting in floor games.
Perez to me is an ownership play – if he is chalky, I want none – if he is lower owned, I am all over it. It is that simple for me when you see the range of outcomes is this wide.
The pivot at SP2 for me is Antonio Senzatela ($6K) who will take on Arizona in Chase Field. Senzatela is a pitcher that seemingly gets a bad rap as his underlying metrics are never good but by and large, this is an arm I think we can use in DFS.
On the season he is averaging just 7 DK points per game but look at the game logs as that is wildly skewed by two outings against the Dodgers where he combined for -11 points, giving up 11 runs in just 5 innings.
His best start of the season – oh well look here, against this same Arizona team where he racked up 24 DK points with 8 shutout innings in Coors Field. When Senzatela is at his best, he is a ground ball machine and we saw it in that game with 16 GB outs – similar to his 13 GB out trip against the Mets in Coors Field where he got to 16.5 DK points.
There is far more of a demonstrated path to success for Senzatela here tonight than we have with Perez and my guess is he comes at far lower ownership.
Not only is Bauer the best arm on the board, but the Dodgers stack against LHP Eric Lauer is where I am going to plant my flag tonight. The Dodgers lineup is death to lefties and Lauer having a .270 ISO mark allowed to RHB and a near 20% walk rate, does not breed much confidence. The Mookie Betts, Justin Turner and Will Smith trio is at the top of my priority list for this slate and from there it becomes more of a mix and match game with how I stack the rest.
The other stack I love tonight – which may be where I get different from the field – is the Colorado Rockies against Luke Weaver.
Weaver so far this year is giving up a massive amount of hard contact – at over 50% – as essentially a two pitch arm with a fastball/change-up combination that accounts for 95% of his pitches this season. This fastball heavy approach is simply not going to cut it and we have seen that the last to games against Atlanta and Washington where they tagged Weaver for a 54% HC rate while only allowing Weaver an 8% SS rate.
The price point on Charlie Blackmon ($3.5K) here is something I think we have to enforce and the $2K punt du jour of Sam Hillard gives you a dirt cheap play in this mini-stack that allows you the path to a Bauer/Dodgers main slate stack!
MLB DFS Picks and Pivots – The Wrap Up
We have two four game MLB DFS slates today to attack that seem like GPP perfection where we can really dig in and find ways to be different.
With Aaron Nola and Trevor Bauer the lone ace arms on each slate today, the question becomes how we attack them in our lineups while still getting the high priority power bats that will dictate your cash position. Let’s get it today!
Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @2LockSports and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!
