Adam Strangis MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Thursday 8.20
Welcome back to MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Thursday 8.20! I’m Adam Strangis and I’m covering for Brian while he’s on vacation the next couple weeks. Tonight, we have another solid slate on DraftKings with big prizes to take down so let’s get started with our top MLB DFS picks for today’s slate!
For those of you new to Picks and Pivots, the goal of this MLB DFS article each and every day is to provide you a “First Look” overview of the slate where we use DraftKings pricing as a baseline to help us get started. Rather than simply write out the “top plays,” this article will focus on slate strategy and roster construction with a GPP mindset to help you get started on your initial builds. Without further ado, let’s dive into today’s slate!
MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Starting Pitchers:
So….I guess DK is really into the NBA playoffs. I mean, I get it. They’ve been really compelling so far and a blast to watch. However, DK is asleep at the wheel with this Shane Bieber price tonight. He’s under $11,000 and his average is 35 DK points per start so far. This is the same Bieber with a 1.30 ERA, 42.9% K rate and a 19.8% swinging strike rate. That’s 1.5% above the second place mark and he leads the league in raw strikeouts. Oh, and the Pirates are a terrible offense. There is a smash button next to his name and Bieber is good chalk in all formats.
Just as confusing to me is the Dinelson Lamet price. His past two starts have generated 37 and 25 DK, yet his price dropped by $700. The Padres righty is seventh in swinging strike rate across starting pitchers and ninth in total K’s. Paying $19,100 for two top 10 strikeout pitchers seems like a pretty easy path to take tonight. Texas is actually not a big K team to RHP at just 20.9% but their bottom-four mark in OPS and wOBA don’t strike fear into my heart at all.
MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Stacks and Bats:
Even though are pitchers are not priced accurately, we still don’t have the most amount of salary to build our offense. Fortunately, we have some good avenues and I’m turning to the Orioles once again. You could argue they’ve been my guys but they are almost always low-owned and better than perception. It’s only 15.1 IP, but Nathan Eovaldi is giving up a .446 wOBA on the road with a .354 average and a 2.35 HR/9. I really like a three-man stack of Chance Sisco, Anthony Santander and Renato Nunez. They’re projected as the 1-3 hitters tonight. They also all have at least a .216 ISO and a .328 wOBA vs RHP. The lowest OPS between them this year is .876.
I’ll interested to see how the Diamondbacks come in tonight as well. A four man stack jives really well with the three Orioles and Arizona gets a good spot. They face Oakland LHP Sean Manaea, who has scuffled badly so far. He’s not going to maintain an ERA over 7.00 but the D-Backs have some lefty mashers at very cheap prices tonight. My main quartet is Ketel Marte, Starling Marte, Nick Ahmed and Eduardo Escobar.
All four of these hitters have ISO’s over .215 since 2019 and have wOBA’s over .340. On top of that, all four have K rates under 19% which is a huge bonus. I know Escobar has been invisible so far this year. I’m a big proponent of players like that in DFS. The talent is still there and he’s out of sight, out of mind to a lot of the field.
MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Wrap up
I do believe that pitching is going to be fairly chalky tonight. It’s justified and I’ll probably eat it because we could legitimately get 20-22 strikeouts between Bieber and Lamet. Both are underpriced by roughly $1,000, if not a little more for Lamet. With chalky pitching, this is even more of a reason to find lower-owned offenses in good spots. MLB is so variable that the chalk offenses can pretty easily fail every night. The O’s and the D’Backs should be stealthy picks tonight.
Stick around in Discord today and let’s talk some baseball!
Let’s get it tonight my friends!
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