Adam Strangis MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Thursday 8.13
Welcome back to MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Thursday 8.13! I’m Adam Strangis and I’m covering for Brian while he’s on vacation the next couple weeks. Tonight, we have another solid slate on DraftKings with big prizes to take down so let’s get started with our top MLB DFS picks for today’s slate!
For those of you new to Picks and Pivots, the goal of this MLB DFS article each and every day is to provide you a “First Look” overview of the slate where we use DraftKings pricing as a baseline to help us get started. Rather than simply write out the “top plays,” this article will focus on slate strategy and roster construction with a GPP mindset to help you get started on your initial builds. Without further ado, let’s dive into today’s slate!
MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Starting Pitchers:
There’s some big names on this small slate but there is one name that stands out on 2020 performance and that’s Yu Darvish. His per game average scoring is dragged down by a poor first outing. I’m not concerned and he’s rebounded since with 13 IP, 11 K’s and one earned run.
We’ve talked about how poor the Brewers offense is playing right now. It kept going last night when they got bludgeoned by the Twins. The K rate is still a healthy 24.6% and the FIP is 1.68. On top of that, the hard contact and fly ball rates are both under 30.5%.
Next up for me is Anthony DeSclafani. I’m not over the moon for his price, but his fist 11 IP this year have been sterling. He’s yet to allow a run, has a FIP of 1.85 and a K rate of 21.1%. The fly balls are under 28% and he gets the Pittsburgh Pirates. Not only have they had a few days off thanks to the Cardinals, they rank dead last in average, OBP, OPS, ISO, wOBA and wRC+. Now let’s find some cheaper stacks to pair up.
MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Stacks and Bats:
We’re going to be looking a little bit cheaper by default with our SP. It works out that the Tampa Bay Rays flirted with double digit runs last night and are cheap today. Boston is starting Kyle Hart, a 27 year old lefty making his major league debut. His numbers in the minors last year included a K rate under 20%, an xFIP of 5.17 and a 1.27 WHIP.
The top of the Rays lineup looks quite juicy. Mike Brosseau, Austin Meadows, Yandy Diaz, Jose Martinez and Hunter Renfroe all have an ISO of at least .230 vs LHP since 2019. The lowest wOBA among them? .330 for Meadows, who also has the only K rate above 25% of the group. Everyone outside of Meadows is under $4,000 making them an easy fit with more expensive pitching.
Consider mixing in Reds and Padres hitters as well. For the Reds, Pirates starter Trevor Williams has historically struggled with LHH. He’s also getting hit hard by RHH in his first few starts. Lastly, he’s been worse on the road so this is a bad mix for him. The Dodgers are throwing Julio Urias but San Diego has lefty killers through the top five of their lineup. Urias only has an 18% K rate to RHH and that could be an issue. Fernando Tatis, Manny Machado and Wil Myers sport ISO’s of at least .320 and wOBA’s of at least .394 vs LHP.
MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Wrap up
Just by default, you’re going to have some chalk on a five game slate. I would expect the pitching combo that we laid out to be chalk. The Rays should also be popular, so my goal is to have a 3-4 man stack from two teams. San Diego should be lower owned on this slate. The Padres and Rays work extremely well positionally because the Rays can fill 1B, 2B and an OF spot. The Padres can fill SS, 3B and an OF spot. With on or two Reds, you’re all set!
Stick around in Discord today and let’s talk some baseball!
Let’s get it tonight my friends!
Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate as sports FINALLY return.
