Brian Tulloch 
Welcome to the Sunday edition of MLB DFS Picks and Pivots where we dive into the top fantasy baseball plays and slate strategy to help you take down tournaments all season long at Win Daily Sports!
If you are new to MLB DFS Picks and Pivots, the goal of this article is not simply to list out the “best plays” but rather to walk through the context of the slate and help you identify the best arms and stacks to build around for MLB DFS tournament play. We will use DraftKings pricing as our anchor and help you get a head start on your winning builds!
Main Slate Breakdown
Welcome into a 10 game Sunday MLB DFS Picks and Pivots Main Slate where we get a chance to follow up on our red-hot day Saturday courtesy of the Mets/Rays bats that carried us to big-time early wins across the Win Daily Sports family!
Today’s slate looks like Picks and Pivots perfection as it all starts with two aces up top in Robbie Ray and Corbin Burnes that I plan on making the 1-2 punch to anchor my GPP lineups.
Robbie Ray ($10.1K) has been one of the most dominant arms in baseball the last month with a 37.5% K rate that ranks 2nd in baseball and a 18.1% swinging-strike rate that ranks also ranks 2nd. Ray is coming off three straight double-digit K outings that have resulted in 30+ DK points each time and today he takes on an Oakland team that while almost entirely right-handed will have to deal with Ray’s 40% K rate to RHB the last 30 days.
Corbin Burnes ($9.7K) being priced under $10K is a free square – this is how I felt with Gerrit Cole the other night and I feel the same way here today. Burnes K rate at 29.8% is a bit misleading to how dominant he has been as his 34.5% CSW rate is tops in all of baseball and his 17% swinging-strike rate is third in baseball right behind the aforementioned Ray. Burnes is coming off a K, 31 DK point outing and his price went down $500 – cool, got it.
Going double aces is the most logical path today as you are getting two of the best K arms in baseball, both of who are priced at a discount relative to their recent form. Just take the double aces and move on.
It is a day that ends in Y – and so here we go again with the best offense in baseball facing a bad starting pitcher – yep, another Tampa Bay Rays day my friends. I know by now you think we are just Tampa Bay public relations employees and this should be obvious – but even yesterday on a small slate the Rays stack was only 10% owned. Seriously, people don’t ever play this team – well, except us. We do and we win.
RHP Griffin Jax is today’s sacrificial lamb, an arm who over the last 30 days has some simply brutal metrics including a .400 ISO and 54.3% HC rate to left-handed batters with “just” a .317 ISO and 43% HC rate to RHB. Jax has given up 2 or more HR’s in 3 of his last 4 starts and on the season he has a 2+ HR/9 to RHB with a 3+ HR/9 mark against lefties. Seriously this is a smash spot for Tampa and I plan on loading up – but what else is new?
The truth is – this is an onslaught kind of stacking approach today where both sides of the plate are in play and you can do it with so many different price points.
The one bat on the Tampa side for me that is a MUST is Brandon Lowe. Over the last month, no hitter on the Rays has a better batted ball profile against RHP than Lowe who has a massive .338 ISO, 50% fly-ball rate, and an average distance traveled of 340 feet. Later this afternoon you are going to get a HR alert on your phone and it will say Brandon Lowe hit a HR. You will smile and then wonder, how did 2Lock know this was going to happen again? Screenshot this people – the 8AM coffee HR call is here. Rejoice!
Not only is it a double ace and Rays day but it is a Jon Lester Day too. Seriously, this is going to be so good.
Our boy Jon Lester faces a Milwaukee Brewers team he is familiar with but it is one that is banged up with the big right-handed bats we would want like Avisail Garcia and/or Willy Adames both current DTD. This is going to be a wait-and-see lineup day for the Brew Crew but it could be one that unlocks a TON of value if/when both Adames and Garcia are ruled out. I think Adames is a lock to be out since the post-game reports were he was due to miss time but we could see Garcia slide back in which would make him an elite play with his ability to hammer LHP.
This Brewers game is an hour after lock so we should have this lineup before the games begin but I would tell you – be ready about 30 minutes before lock to start building to find which Milwaukee pieces we can fit around a core Rays stack.
MLB DFS Picks and Pivots – The Wrap-Up
Sometimes the MLB DFS Picks and Pivots slate is so perfect you simply need to sit back and smile. We have double aces. We have the Tampa Bay Rays. We have a Jon Lester Day.
If this does not make you smile then I feel sorry for you because you hate happiness and money. I look forward to the screenshots later my friends – happy Sunday Funday.
Good luck tonight all! Let’s keep that hot streak rolling! Come join the Win Daily Sports Team – grab a Gold Membership and take advantage of all the tools, articles, and expert coaching we can give you to make you a consistent winner in DFS.
Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @2LockSports and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!
