Gary Gustafson 
Welcome to the Sunday, May 30th edition of MLB DFS Picks and Pivots where we dive into the top fantasy baseball plays and slate strategy to help you take down tournaments all season long at Win Daily Sports!
If you are new to MLB DFS Picks and Pivots, the goal of this article is not simply to list out the “best plays” but rather walk through the context of the slate and help you identify the best arms and stacks to build around for MLB DFS tournament play. We will use DraftKings pricing as our anchor and help you get a head start on your winning builds!
MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Early Slate Breakdown
Happy Sunday my MLB DFS friends and welcome into another split slate day of DFS where we kick off the day with a 10 game “Early” slate at 1:05 PM EST and much like yesterday we have rain concerns with Boston looking the worst and steady rain in Washington and Milwaukee which could impact two of the best arms on the slate in Max Scherzer and Brandon Woodruff.
The way this slate shakes out – having any sort of uncertainty around these two arms would completely change the landscape of how we attack today. Think back to yesterday, many of us were all in on the Blue Jays bats and when we got a late PPD due to (checks notes) …. wind… (yep) – it totally changed how we had to attack the slate.
Today we have another offense that could/should be the key cog for many and much like the Jays yesterday, the pricing on the Chicago White Sox are going to make them the core decision point in your stack.
The Sox are going up against LHP Keegan Akin, who has surrendered a .186 ISO, 46% hard contact rate, and 48% fly-ball rate to RHB since the start of last season. We know the flow chart by now – when you have a hittable lefty on the hill, it makes all of Tim Anderson, Jose Abreu, Yermin Mercedes and Andrew Vaughn turn into the 1920’s Yankees and it becomes HR derby.
I love what DK did today with the White Sox pricing because if you want them – well, be prepared to pay $6K per batter to make it all work because that is where the big boys sit! The inflated pricing on the Sox bats is going to reverberate throughout the rest of your lineup decisions – you may be able to get up to one of Max or Woodruff but it will mean punting big time with your secondary stack if you go that route.
One option for GPP’s would be to double down on offenses and go big with two stacks and pair the Tampa Bay Rays left-handed power with the White Sox bats. The Rays take on Zach Eflin today in Tampa and I think getting a Rays mini stack here could be a massive difference-maker because their pricing is high enough where I simply do not think people will even think about going here.
Eflin since the start of 2020 has had extreme splits, dominating RHB but to lefties he has given up a .236 ISO mark with a 2.4 HR/9 rate last season and a 1.4 HR/9 so far this season.
Eflin relies on two pitchers to lefties – the sinker which he throws 40% of the time and the slider which he throws about 30% of the time. If we look into that pitch type mix, Austin Meadows has a .200 ISO mark against the sinker while Brandon Lowe has a 48% HC rate against that pitch type with Kevin Kiermaier not far behind at 43%.
The slider is where it really gets interesting – JI Man Choi and Lowe both have .200+ ISO marks but Meadows is the play that jumps off the plate here with a .429 ISO and 87% fly ball rate.
That slider has been what has gotten Eflin in trouble as lefties have hit it to the tune of a .375 ISO, 40% HC rate, and 80% fly-ball rate. I absolutely LOVE the idea of a mini-stack with Meadows/Lowe today and I think Austin Meadows is the kind of sub 5% bat that has double-dong upside in this spot.
Now going with two pricey stacks means we are going to have to get creative with our arms and I think Adam Strangis nailed it in his Starting Rotation today (but what else is new).
What if we went double punts and lived in the Yankee/Tigers game with Tarik Skubal and Michael King?
I have to be honest – I went into today thinking the Yankee stack was the nuts against Skubal but after reading Adam’s write up on Skubal’s recent pitch mix changes, it got me intrigued and then I found this deep dive from the guys at PitcherList and boy oh boy am I really intrigued.
The gist of this article really expands on what Adam was talking about in that a recent decision to ditch his splitter has resulted in better swing and miss outputs and with 3 of his last 4 games resulting in 8, 9 and 9 K’s – the path for ceiling is there even against the Yankees line-up.
We talked about how going with the White Sox stack and their pricey bats will be a significant salary constraint especially if you load up on secondary bats – which is why Michael King at $4K is in our sights.
We made this argument a few nights ago with Kolby Allard who delivered 11 DK points at min price with 4 innings and 4 K’s and that is kind of the path you are looking for with King today against the K heavy Tigers. King has a 27% K rate against LHB since the start of last season and the Tigers are projected to throw out 6 of them today and a team with a 25%+ K rate against RHP since 2020.
Do you want to go all bats today? Well – rocking both arms in Detroit could be your path to making that happen!
MLB DFS Picks and Pivots – The Wrap-Up
While we have a split late today, the 4 game “afternoon slate” looks unplayable with really weak contest selection on DK so my focus will be on the “Early” slate only and I think it sets up to me a good one for our MLB DFS picks.
Do you want high dollar arms or big time power stacks? Because the likelihood is you cant get both.
I love the idea today of going with cheap arms in sneaky strong spots and anchoring to not one but two high-dollar power stacks that could win us serious money on this Sunday!
Good luck tonight all! Let’s keep that hot streak rolling! Come join the Win Daily Sports Team – grab a Gold Membership and take advantage of all the tools, articles, and expert coaching we can give you to make you a consistent winner in DFS.
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