Brian Tulloch 
Welcome to the Sunday, July 4th edition of MLB DFS Picks and Pivots where we dive into the top fantasy baseball plays and slate strategy to help you take down tournaments all season long at Win Daily Sports!
If you are new to MLB DFS Picks and Pivots, the goal of this article is not simply to list out the “best plays” but rather to walk through the context of the slate and help you identify the best arms and stacks to build around for MLB DFS tournament play. We will use DraftKings pricing as our anchor and help you get a head start on your winning builds!
Main Slate Breakdown
Opening up this 9 game MLB DFS Picks and Pivots Main Slate on Sunday, the first thing that jumped out to me was how deep the pitching pool was with clear aces up top but also some really strong and under-priced options as we scroll down the available players.
There is a very clear upper SP1 tier with Cole, Peralta, Ray and Giolito and as both Adam and Jared pointed out, the pricing on Charlie Morton ($7.8K) in this spot against the Marlins just screams high PP/$ upside.
The one other arm that jumped out to me for value though was Kenta Maeda ($6.2K) who is now at his season-low price point against the Kansas City Royals today.
Maeda has had an up and down season and it seemed like after a month on the IL with arm/groin injuries, that things were starting to tick back up. Maeda went 4 innings, threw 76 pitches, striking out 7 and giving up just 1 ER on his way to 14 DK points against Seattle, and then went 84 pitches and 5+ innings against Texas with 4 K’s and 16 DK points and things seemed to be trending up.
Then he started against the White Sox last time out and while he threw 92 pitches (good), he walked 5 and gave up 7 ER and hence the price decrease on DK. Here is the thing though – dig into that start a little more and the .444 BABIP and just 22% hard contact rate tell you this was far more bad luck than a pitcher who was getting waxed.
The elevated walk rate is was a true statistical outlier as Maeda had not only walked more than 2 batters all season before that outing and maybe it was a simple result of his turn being PPD on back-to-back days that forced him to lose his feel.
Maeda’s match-up today against a right-handed heavy Royals team is one I think he can exploit as Kansas City ranks bottom 5 in team ISO against RHP and bottom 3 in hard contact with just a 30% hard contact rate.
The Royals also struggle to handle the slider, the primary swing and miss offering that Maeda uses nearly 45% of the time against right-handed batters and with no single right-handed batter with over a 70% contact rate against the pitch type and 4 of the 6 RHB in the projected line-up with 40-50% whiff rates, there is massive bounce-back potential for Maeda in this spot.
Now paying down for pitching today means you can stack some serious bats, and while we may not have Coors Field on this slate, there are plenty of other high octane offenses we can prioritize.
My absolute favorite spot for GPP’s today is in Philadelphia with Blake Snell and Vincent Velazquez on the mound for the Padres and Phillies.
On the season – there are only 5 arms that have given up a 40%+ hard contact rate to right-handed batters – arms like MadBum, Peterson, Civale and Mr. Blake Snell.
Snell’s struggles outside of San Diego have been serious as well, with his K rate dropping from 35% down to 23%, his xFIP nearly doubling from 2.7 up to 5 and his HR/9 rate jumping from .7 to 2.2.
With a 52.5% hard contact rate to RHB this year – it is fire up the Phillies time, especially those with power against high-velocity fastballs like Snells. All of Hoskins, Realmuto and McCutchen have 400+ ISO marks against that pitch type from lefties and Bryce Harper has .300+ ISO marks against both the fastball and slider which are the primary weapons against LHB.
Speaking of high-velocity fastballs that get walloped – welcome in Vinny Velo to the party who has reverse splits that have allowed the right-handed to touch him up for a .225 ISO and 50% fly-ball rate.
Let’s see – who has right-handed power that could possibly take advantage of these splits? Oh yeah – Manny Machado and Fernando Tatis Jr.
The Padres duo has a .300 ISO and 60% HC rates against the fastball velocity from right-handers like VV and average distances of 350+ – yeah, these guys seem like easy HR calls.
We have a hitters umpire, sunny skies and the winds blowing out 5-7 MPH in Philly – welcome to the fireworks my friends, this game stack is going to go nuts!
MLB DFS Picks and Pivots – The Wrap-Up
We have a really solid 9 game MLB DFS slate today and while we have top arms available, I am finding myself looking more towards a cheap Morton/Maeda pairing on DK where I can lock in a high power game stack in Philadelphia with two arms that give up massive hard contact.
Good luck tonight all! Let’s keep that hot streak rolling! Come join the Win Daily Sports Team – grab a Gold Membership and take advantage of all the tools, articles, and expert coaching we can give you to make you a consistent winner in DFS.
Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @2LockSports and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!
