Brian Tulloch 
Welcome to the Sunday, July 18th edition of MLB DFS Picks and Pivots where we dive into the top fantasy baseball plays and slate strategy to help you take down tournaments all season long at Win Daily Sports!
If you are new to MLB DFS Picks and Pivots, the goal of this article is not simply to list out the “best plays” but rather to walk through the context of the slate and help you identify the best arms and stacks to build around for MLB DFS tournament play. We will use DraftKings pricing as our anchor and help you get a head start on your winning builds!
Main Slate Breakdown
Welcome into a Sunday MLB DFS Picks and Pivots where we have a much more clear weather slate ahead of us however we do have some unique aspects of this 10 game slate as the Jays/Rangers game is a 7 inning double-header and the games in Washington and Philadelphia will start delayed as they need to resume the games from last night first.
The one thing we know for sure – pitching is STRONG on this slate, like really strong. You could make the argument for half the arms on this slate as viable pitching targets and as such, the takeaway for me is that we cannot take unnecessary risks with arms today and need to ensure we hit on our two pitchers on DraftKings.
Now that does not necessarily mean we have to pay all the way up for the likes of Burnes, Max or Wheeler – all strong plays, but I think the next tier down provides more point per dollar upside.
Sonny Gray ($8.2K) is coming off the All-Star Break IL with a rib strain, and assuming we hear of no pitch count issues, we simply need to go right back to him at this price point. In his previous two starts before the break, Gray struck out 7 and 8 batters and his 30% K rate on the season gives you elite strikeout upside at a mid-range price point.
The match-up against Milwaukee sets up perfectly as well, with 5 of the 8 projected batters hitting from the left side where Gray has a 34.4% K rate this season and this is a line-up overall with a 25% K rate against RHP since the start of last season.
The other mid-range arm in an elite match-up with Hyun Jin Ryu ($7.6K) against the K-happy Texas Rangers in a 7 inning double-header contest. Five of the eight batters in this projected Texas line-up have a K rate of 28% or higher against LHP since the start of last season including 3 left-handed batters with Gallo, Dahl, and Lowe who have a combined 30%+ K rate against southpaws.
When pivoting to the bats, yeah – it has been a while but boy oh boy – today is the day we go back to our Tampa Bay Rays stacks against LHP Drew Smyly.
If you look at the metrics for Smyly this season, his sub 5 ERA actually tells you he has been lucky as compared to his 5.26 xFIP and his .200+ ISO and 46% hard contact rates allowed along with a 2 HR/9 rate, tells you this is a blow-up spot that could happen at any moment and we know the Rays are the kind of offense that can win you a GPP when the bats are clicking.
What I love about this Rays stack is how balanced it is from the right/left side and I think having lefties like Austin Meadows and Brandon Lowe in the middle of the order, will keep folks away in the L/L spot. However, here is the thing – Smyly, has given up a .303 ISO mark to LHB this season with a 51.8% hard contact rate and when you dig deeper into his pitch type you start to fall in love even more with the spot.
Smyly relies over 30% of the time on his curveball to lefties, the only real secondary offering he uses and it is one that left-handed batters have hit with power to the tune of a .240 ISO and average distance traveled of 347 feet. Meadows and Lowe specifically have elite batted ball profiles against this pitch type with Meadows sporting a .290 ISO while Lowe has a .200 ISO and team-high 50% hard contact rate.
The Rays are the road team, so we know we get a guaranteed 9 innings of at-bats and with Smyly’s penchant for hard contact and it being hot and humid in Atlanta today – the ball could fly as our Rays stack takes us to the top of the GPP leaderboard.
MLB DFS Picks and Pivots – The Wrap-Up
Looking at this MLB DFS Picks and Pivots slate, the pitching is where you need to start and frankly, it is where you have to get it right but I also think with so many good options, the ownership will largely be spread out and allow us to pick from a large player pool.
The flip side is with so many good arms is that there are far less stacks to build off of, so if all of a sudden we see chalky bats forming – that to me is where we pivot off and my hope is that the Rays go over-looked against an arm that is giving up tons of power in a hitter’s ballpark.
Good luck tonight all! Let’s keep that hot streak rolling! Come join the Win Daily Sports Team – grab a Gold Membership and take advantage of all the tools, articles, and expert coaching we can give you to make you a consistent winner in DFS.
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