Brian Tulloch 
Welcome to the Sunday edition of MLB DFS Picks and Pivots where we dive into the top fantasy baseball plays and slate strategy 15thto help you take down tournaments all season long at Win Daily Sports!
If you are new to MLB DFS Picks and Pivots, the goal of this article is not simply to list out the “best plays” but rather to walk through the context of the slate and help you identify the best arms and stacks to build around for MLB DFS tournament play. We will use DraftKings pricing as our anchor and help you get a head start on your winning builds!
Main Slate Breakdown
Welcome into a Sunday MLB DFS Picks and Pivots Main Slate where we have 10 games to break down and I am finally back from a two-week family vacation. A massive THANK YOU to Jared for covering Picks and Pivots while I was gone and for Adam expanding Starting Rotation to help cover for me! Two weeks of off-the-grid life traveling around Alaska with my family was something I will never forget – so I appreciate having the time to unplug and unwind!
Stepping back into this slate on Sunday, we get a really nice slate without much weather to be concerned with, some ace level arms, and a few teams with 6+ IRT’s and as we tend to get on Sunday in MLB DFS season – we will have value bats to make it all work with ease!
All that leads me to have my eye on the top-dollar arms and frankly, as Adam outlined in Starting Rotation – this is not a slate where we have viable punt arms so I think paying up for both arms is the best approach.
With the Reds rolling out a right-handed heavy lineup and Lucas Giolito sporting just a 22% K rate the last month, I think the best pay-up is easily Sean Manaea against the Texas Rangers. Despite his up and down game logs, his 34% K rate over the last month stands out to me on this slate especially against a Rangers team that over the last 14 days has a bottom 5 ISO mark and a top 10 CSW rate!
The SP2 discussion needed to be waited on but we got confirmation that Elieser Hernandez will start for the Marlins today. Hernandez has been outright dominant in his minor-league starts and faces the most strikeout-heavy team in baseball the last two weeks with the Cubs at nearly 35%.
Hernandez has shown serious swing and miss stuff with a 32% K rate in 2020 and his minor league outings during rehab have shown that same ability to miss bats including a dominant performance the last time out where he struck out 10 batters in 5 innings of work on just 60 pitches.
Now paying up for pitching on this slate does not mean we have to cheap out on bats and well – I get welcomed back to a Tampa Bay Ray Day!
The Rays are one of those teams that has a 6+ IRT and against a lefty in Charlie Barnes who is giving up a 50%+ hard contact rate to right-handed batters, the Rays line-up could set up perfectly for a massive day.
Barnes throws the sinker 40% of the time to RHB and well – the Ray righties stand out in a big-time way. Randy Arozarena is a sinker machine with a .647 ISO and 85% HC rate and an average distance traveled of 368 feet. Seriously, read that again.
All of Nelson Cruz, Jordan Luplow and Manuel Margot have 40-50% HC rates against that pitch type as well and if you flip to the change-up, which Barnes throws 20% of the time – it does not get any better. In fact, now ass Mike Zunino to the bunch with a .428 ISO and 48% HC rate against that pitch type!
One of the reasons Zunino is likely my odd man out in a stack though is because the Royals are facing JA Happ and that means it is Salvador Perez day!
We all know the deal with Happ by now – right-handed hitters hammer him to the tune of a .260 ISO and 45% HC rate this season and Salvy’s .380 ISO and 56% HC rate against LHP this season is just, well a cheat code. Also, Salvy has insane BvP against Happ and so we know Jason will play him because BvP is the most complete metric in all of DFS – welcome back buddy, missed ya!
I have used the KC-TB stack so often this year in MLB DFS because of the correlation where you can stack Salvy/Whit and still get all the Rays bats you covet and that is the exact path I intend to use today!
MLB DFS Picks and Pivots – The Wrap-Up
We kick off this Sunday MLB DFS Picks and Pivots slate with a good one with some solid top-end arms and amazing offensive stacks. For me, paying up for arms is a must and we can do so with a cheap Rays/Royals hitting combination that oozes upside!
Good luck tonight all! Let’s keep that hot streak rolling! Come join the Win Daily Sports Team – grab a Gold Membership and take advantage of all the tools, articles, and expert coaching we can give you to make you a consistent winner in DFS.
Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @2LockSports and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!
