Gary Gustafson 
Welcome to the Sunday edition of MLB DFS Picks and Pivots where we dive into the top fantasy baseball plays and slate strategy to help you take down tournaments all season long at Win Daily Sports!
Congrats to our Win Daily Sports MLB Expert Rocker on a massive MLB DFS win on Saturday Night!
If you are new to MLB DFS Picks and Pivots, the goal of this article is not simply to list out the “best plays” but rather walk through the context of the slate and help you identify the best arms and stacks to build around for MLB DFS tournament play. We will use DraftKings pricing as our anchor and help you get a head start on your winning builds!
MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Pitching Picks
For the first time since the 2021 MLB DFS season started, we have a Main Slate without the Dodgers in Coors Field and this is the first slate without obvious ace-level arms – which means we have far more landmines to navigate and potential risk.
The two best arms on the slate in terms of K metrics are Ian Anderson ($9.8K) and Zach Eflin ($8.2K) who sported 29.7% and 28.6% K rates respectively last season while also having 25% or lower HC rates which means they have high K upside and the potential for run prevention – however, the issue for both will lie in the fact they face each other, and more specifically the Braves and Phillies lineups.
If you have been following along with Picks and Pivots early this season, you know that I am a huge proponent of going double-aces on DraftKings, anchoring to high K arms and banking on high variance from hitters that allow me to attack cheaper stacks.
The issue with that approach is that it cannot be applied to every slate equally – like today – if we do not have the elite K arms, I do not think we need to force it.
So rather than start from the top, let’s work our way up from the bottom with two punt arms that I think have some GPP appeal.
Jeff Hoffman ($5.4K) by all metrics is an arm we are not going to start our day considering based on his history but for a pitcher that has spent his entire career in Coors Field, the move out to Cincinnati could pay big dividends.
The reality is, Hoffman outside of his career in Coors has been a totally serviceable arm with a 4.8 ERA and a 21.6% K rate which in the context of this slate, actually puts him in contention to be playable. If you dig deeper, his best K metric split is on the road against RHB, sitting at 23% – and guess what he is about to face today with the Cardinals- a projected line-up with 5-6 right-handed batters included.
Bruce Zimmermann ($6.7K) makes his first start of 2021 and with just 7 innings of major league experience, the Orioles left-hander will get the tough task of pitching in Fenway Park. Interestingly enough, Zimmermann pitched 4 innings of relief against Boston in Fenway last season and did quite well – with 4 innings of 2 hit ball with 5 K’s on his way to 15 DK points.
What is interesting about Zimmermann is that his pitch mix and approach are still developing and we may end up seeing an improved version of himself in his first full big-league season. Zimmermann spent the off-season re-working his mechanics which is outlined in great detail in this great piece from Fangraphs and what we saw in Spring Training was a much different arm with better breaking stuff and more velocity. It is a small sample size, but in 9 innings, he allowed just one hit and sported a 10:3 K: BB ratio.
Listen, I am not going to pound the table and tell you that punting with these arms is a slam dunk – it is far from it. There is risk but there is risk with nearly every arm on this slate and I think the perceived “good arms” are overpriced relative to their talent. So instead- can we punt with arms that have demonstrated K ability and still give us all the salary we want to spent on bats? I think so.
MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Stacks to Attack
With all the salary we could want, we can attack the best bats on this slate and the game that catches my eye is Yankees/Blue Jays.
The Yankees face off with RHP TJ Zeuch, a low K ground ball arm and the fact that the Yankees have one of the highest totals on the Main Slate, over 5 runs today, will make them a popular place to spend up against arguably the worst arm we have today. The weather in New York will be 60 degrees and sunny with 10MPH winds blowing straight out and so this is a a spot where I think a Yankee stack of power bats could pay massive dividends.
The Blue Jays side of this game very honestly is where my GPP mind goes to. At the start of my research I was intrigued by RHP Domingo German who is back for the Yankees at the back end of the rotation his suspension for domestic violence – listen this kid has tremendous K potential with 26% and 27% K rates his previous two years but that came with nearly 40% hard contact and almost 2 HR/9.
I could have just as easily made the argument FOR German has an SP option on this slate – the kid has electric stuff as evidenced by his 17:1 K:BB ratio in the spring and if the Blue Jays lineup is a Sunday Special – well, maybe we need to reconsider. However, this is also an arm who gives up a ton of hard contact and power against one of the most exciting and powerful young lineups in baseball.
The Blue Jays lineup is not only powerful – but they are pricey on DK with guys like Vlad, Bichette, Biggio and Teoscar all in the $4-$5K and so here is a spot where you take your stand. Are you playing the K rate for German or are you attacking an arm that have up a ton of hard contact with a high HR/9 rate with the wind blowing out in Yankee Stadium?
MLB DFS Picks and Pivots – The Wrap Up
Sunday’s forMLB DFS are always tricky because we tend to see days off for star players and odd lineups that can take a fringe arm and quickly make him a core play if lineups break right.
Today – DISCORD is going to be huge as we adjust and react to lineups.
Let’s be honest – there is no arm today I feel like we HAVE to have, let alone getting two on DraftKings – so instead, can we pay down for arms and let the bats win us this slate? As we get lineups out today, I think we may find that some fringe arms are in better spots then we first thought!
Enjoy this slate – let’s get in our FREE Discord today and chat it up while we dig through our cheat sheets and custom projections here at Win Daily to set up the start of this MLB DFS season with some big wins!
Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @2LockSports and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!
