Mitchell Thoennes 
Welcome to the Sunday edition of MLB DFS Picks and Pivots where we dive into the top fantasy baseball plays and slate strategy to help you take down tournaments all season long at Win Daily Sports!
If you are new to MLB DFS Picks and Pivots, the goal of this article is not simply to list out the “best plays” but rather walk through the context of the slate and help you identify the best arms and stacks to build around for MLB DFS tournament play. We will use DraftKings pricing as our anchor and help you get a head start on your winning builds!
MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Sunday Slate Breakdown
We open up this ten-game MLB DFS slate on Sunday and the most pressing issue is weather concerns as the games in New York, Baltimore and Toronto (Florida) could all see games get wiped out due to rain. It looks like the Mets/Marlins and Jays/Angels are at the biggest risk of a PPD so this could become an 8 game slate before too long!
The other concern is trying to find some pitching we actually like today, as Kevin McCallister once said when laying eyes on his brother’s girlfriend – “woof.”
Now, one thing we need to watch for is how lineups ultimately are pushed out and yesterday was a great example. When the Mets lineup was released with 4 LHB in it, we talked in Discord how Trevor Rogers became in play and all he was going out and outdueled Jacob deGrom – if we get some watered down Sunday lineups, our pitching picks may gain more clarity.
Anecdotally, I noticed the pricing on this slate, especially as it relates to the bats, seems incredibly inflated and the price hike on offense at least today will not hurt us as I think paying down for pitching is the most optimal route regardless.
Adrian Morejon ($7.7K) is arguably my favorite arm on this slate as his combination of electric raw talent and match-up against the Rangers, could result in serious ceiling potential. Morejon has flashed elite K ability throughout the minor leagues and in his brief major league career and the more the Padres stretch him out, the more his ceiling will come into play this season.
A match-up with a Texas team that has a 31% K rate against LHP this season and as this chart below from Statmuse points out, left-handed starters have routinely seen strong DFS outings against this K heavy Texas team this season.
Morejon is fairly priced on DK at $7.7K but at $5.9K on FanDuel – goodness, what a steal. With the K upside and the pitch count expected to continually rise, this is a spot I think we get on early while the price discount still applies.
Daniel Ponce De Leon ($6.7K) is another high K talent in a great K match-up as he faces a Brewers team that has struck out 27.1% of the time against RHP this season and a projected lineup with a massive 29% K rate since the start of 2020 against RHP.
What is interesting about PDL (I am not typing Ponce De Leon every time), is that his splits are a total reverse as he gives up an ISO mark .100 higher against RHB and his K rate drops 10%. So if Milwaukee goes lefty heavy as expected, PDL has a .106 ISO mark and 33% K rate against that side of the plate since 2019.
Staying in this game is my first stack and that is the St. Louis Cardinals RHB against LHP Brett Anderson. Let’s break this down simply – Anderson struggles against RHB to the tune of a .230 ISO mark allowed since the start of last season and the Cardinals are basically a right-handed 1-8 at this point.
Anderson relies on his sinker nearly 40% of the time against RHB and guess who just happens to hammer that pitch type from lefties? Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado – that is who.
I would argue those two bats are priority for me today and I can mix and match fringe pieces like Edman, DeJong and OF’s like Dean/Carlson for salary relief or as add-ons to a Cardinals stack.
The other team I love today and one that correlates well with the Cardinals is the Kansas City Royals against RHP Dylan Cease. Cease since the start of 2020 has been an ISO surrendering machine, with a .254 mark to LHB and .210 to RHB and when you have a single digit SS rate and a sub 20% K rate, that means people make contact often and they do it without fear or remorse.
Salvador Perez and Whit Merrifield are elite plays and make for optimal plays because they can fill in my C/2B spots but the guy that really catches my eye today is Jorge Soler. Cease basically throws his slider 50% of the time against RHB and Soler’s data against that pitch type is off the charts – a .265 ISO with a 52% hard contact rate average distance traveled of 342 feet.
Throw the slider Dylan – I dare you. Home run call incoming.
MLB DFS Picks and Pivots – The Wrap Up
I have to say, initially I hated this slate but the more I dig into it the more I really like it for MLB DFS GPP play. We have so much risk at SP that we can really dig deep and take chances and I think Morejon/Ponce De Leon make for incredible high K targets that are cheap enough we can go heavy HR hunting with a Cardinals/Royals stack!
Enjoy this slate – let’s get in our FREE Discord today and chat it up while we dig through our cheat sheets and custom projections here at Win Daily to set up the start of this MLB DFS season with some big wins!
Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @2LockSports and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!
