Adam Strangis MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Sunday 8.16
Welcome back to MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Sunday 8.16! I’m Adam Strangis and I’m covering for Brian while he’s on vacation the next couple weeks. Tonight, we have another solid slate on DraftKings with big prizes to take down so let’s get started with our top MLB DFS picks for today’s slate!
For those of you new to Picks and Pivots, the goal of this MLB DFS article each and every day is to provide you a “First Look” overview of the slate where we use DraftKings pricing as a baseline to help us get started. Rather than simply write out the “top plays,” this article will focus on slate strategy and roster construction with a GPP mindset to help you get started on your initial builds. Without further ado, let’s dive into today’s slate!
MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Starting Pitchers:
Isn’t it so weird to look at Max Scherzer and see a 2.75 ERA and 1.32 WHIP and feel he’s been mildly disappointing? The K rate is basically identical to last year but one thing that’s been hurting him is walks. His career mark is 6.7% and this season is 12%. If Scherzer was his usual price I might even preach some caution. However, I tend to think it irons out fast. When Scherzer is under $11,000 and there’s no obvious alternative, I’m just plugging and playing.
The SP2 spot is where we can get different. We can certainly go the expensive route and play Lance McCullers. The Picks and Pivots Seattle Mariners Flow Chart is in full effect here. McCullers is a talented right, the Mariners are a huge K team and in the bottom half vs the curve. McCullers fits the bill, but doesn’t leave us with a ton of salary for offense.
If we want to save some money, let’s look at an intriguing arm for the Brewers. Josh Linblom doesn’t look like much on the surface with a 5.68 ERA but he does have a 3.22 xFIP. Really, he’s been bit by the home run ball so far. He gave up three against the Twins (no shame there) and it’s skewed some stats.
What we want is the 35.7% K rate. Since the Cubs whiff at a top five rate vs RHP, Lindblom could be a very cheap source of K’s. When playing Scherzer and needing some good bats, Lindblom looks like a great (albeit risky) option. The McCullers/Scherzer pair is the cash pair today, but I want Scherzer/Lindblom in GPP.
MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Stacks and Bats:
Normally this would be the spot where I want to attack Jon Lester but I just can’t do it. The Brewers offense has been feeble and while I may have one-offs like Keston Hiura or Christian Yelich, I will likely not end on a Brewers stack today. Until we meet again, Jon.
I’m looking at the offense that sits 10th in wOBA vs RHP and that’s the Philadelphia Phillies. This one does need the weather to cooperate but we can turn to a core group of Bryce Harper, Jay Bruce, Didi Gregorious and Alec Bohm. I’m a sucker for super cheap prospects like Bohm and then a three lefties all carry wOBA’s over .310 vs RHP. Bruce and Harper supply the power with ISO’s over .225. Rick Porcello has given up a .346 wOBA to LHH and an .828 OPS, which falls in line with 2019 numbers. If your build takes you to an expensive catcher, JT Realmuto is always in play.
I think the Houston Astros get some love again (likely my sub for Phillies if weather is a bust) but let’s take a look at the Twins. They get Brady Singer who is talented but has some flaws. Some of which include his 5.75 FIP, 1.65 WHIP, 50% hard contact and 40% fly ball rate to LHH. That’s not what you want against Minnesota. All the lefties are in play but the three in the top four of Max Kepler, Eddie Rosario and Jorge Polanco all have wOBA’s over .335 vs RHP and K rates under 18%.
MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Wrap up
We do need some cooperation today for the main points of Picks and Pivots to be valid. Also, don’t forget Sunday lineups can be funky. A couple teams played doubleheaders yesterday so be sure to check lineups. Right now, I like Philly and Minnesota, with Houston serving as the alternate. If you MME, my sneaky offenses of the day are Detroit and Miami. The Tigers especially could give leverage on Adam Plutko.
Stick around in Discord today and let’s talk some baseball!
Let’s get it tonight my friends!
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