Adam Strangis 
Welcome back MLB DFS fans! Tonight, we have another solid slate on DraftKings with big prizes pools to take down so let’s get started with our top MLB DFS picks for today’s slate!
For those of you new to Picks and Pivots, the goal of this MLB DFS article each and every day is to provide you a “First Look” overview of the slate where we use DraftKings pricing as a baseline to help us get started. Rather than simply write out the “top plays,” this article will focus on slate strategy and roster construction with a GPP mindset to help you get started on your initial builds. Without further ado, let’s dive into today’s slate!
MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Starting Pitchers
Much like we had on Friday night, this Saturday MLB DFS slate is loaded with strong options up top and if last night was any barometer, we are going to need at least one of these top tier arms in our build.
Lucas Giolito ($10.5K) is the highest priced option and deservedly so as he is sporting a massive 34.4% K rate and 17% swinging strike rate in 2020. After back to back 13 K outings against Detroit and Pittsburgh, he came back to Earth a bit with “only” 8 K’s against Minnesota but this match-up today with a Royals lineup with a 24%+ K rate against RHP, sets up for ceiling potential once again.
Gerrit Cole ($10.3K) gets a turn today in Camden Yards against Baltimore and while he has struggled with the long ball in recent starts, the overall K metrics are still very much elite – as he has a 31% K rate 15% swinging strike rate in 2020.
The K metrics while strong, are not at the level they were a year ago and the biggest jump we are seeing is how opposing hitters are squaring him up – with a 10% jump in both contact rate and hard hit rate.
This Orioles team does not have a ton of pop (just a .156 ISO mark against RHP as a lineup since 2019), but they also do not strike out a ton (18%). Cole is interesting to me today because the recent “subpar” outings for him may lead folks to stay away but despite the HR struggles, his K metrics remain elite and set him up for ceiling type games any time he takes the mound.
Kenta Maeda ($10.1K) come in third from a pricing standpoint, but with a match-up against the Tigers, you could make a strong argument that he is actually the best of the bunch.
No team in baseball strikes out at a higher rate against RHP than Detroit (27.4%) and this was a match-up Maeda just saw, where he struck out 8 batters. Now, in that game he gave 3 runs on the back of 2 HR’s and was saddled with the loss – but the K upside still put him right at 20 DK points – so the path to 20+ here is not hard to imagine especially if Detroit remains right-handed heavy as Maeda has a whopping 36% K rate against RHB this season which is 10% higher than his mark against lefties.
I think there are viable mid-range options, with Justus Sheffield, against Texas, standing out as my favorite but I also weight the opportunity cost at pitcher. We have three arms all with 20+ fantasy point paths and 30+ point ceilings and anytime we have that – I am always going to default to a pitcher heavy build as long as we can find the bats to work around it – and as you will see, I think there is an easy path to make it work.
MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Bats and Stacks
Going double aces on this slate means you have under $4K per batter for your builds so while I love the White Sox against a lefty, the pricing puts me down a different path BUT it is one I think we can utilize without sacrificing upside.
The New York Yankees may not yet have their full line-up back and healthy but with a match-up against a hittable lefty and a mediocre bullpen on tap in Baltimore, we can attack a team with an IRT of 5.6, which sits just behind the White Sox and Braves tonight.
Keegan Akin takes the start for Baltimore after throwing 81 pitches against the Jays and while he managed to limit the damage to 2 runs, the one thing he has shown in limited sample is that righties have hit him with high ISO/hard contact rates.
This Yankee lineup could be bolstered today by the return of Gleyber Torres who not only gives them a massive boost in the middle of the lineup, but also happens to have roughly 943 career HR’s against the Orioles.
The top of this Yankee lineup remains loaded with power against lefties – with all of DJ, Voit, Frazier, Sanchez and Torres sporting .220+ ISO marks against lefties since the start of last season and if the focus (rightfully so) is on the White Sox, it is possible that people overlook the return of Torres here in what could be an equally high ceiling stack.
MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Wrap up
If you opt to go double aces here with a Yankees 5 man stack – you still have $2.5K+ per batter for the last 3 spots in your build and as we mentioned yesterday, there are a massive amount of $2K hitters each and every slate that remains on DraftKings.
One approach that I take often in these instances is to lock in two aces and the five man stack I want and then simply wait on lineups to be released. The benefit here tonight is that all of Giolito/Cole/Maeda are priced essentially the same so you do not have to change the core of your build much at all depending on with arms you chose.
Once we have the Yankee lineup as an example – you can then simply look at the three open roster spots you have left and start to mix and match value based on projections and value. You can take the approach of picking a few cheap one offs, or you can find correlated mini stacks like we found last night with the Cubs – stacking 2-3 cheapies like Heyward, Maybin and Caratini at the bottom of the order.
Stick around in Discord today and let’s talk some baseball!
Let’s get it tonight my friends!
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