Gary Gustafson 
Welcome to the Saturday edition of MLB DFS Picks and Pivots where we dive into the top fantasy baseball plays and slate strategy to help you take down tournaments all season long at Win Daily Sports!
If you are new to MLB DFS Picks and Pivots, the goal of this article is not simply to list out the “best plays” but rather to walk through the context of the slate and help you identify the best arms and stacks to build around for MLB DFS tournament play. We will use DraftKings pricing as our anchor and help you get a head start on your winning builds!
Early Slate Breakdown
Welcome into a split slate MLB DFS Picks and Pivots Saturday where we begin with a 6 game early slate that includes a 7 inning double-header game between the Mets/Nationals. One thing to note is the starting times of these games – we have two games that start after 4 PM EST despite the 1 PM EST so there is a real chance we will not have lineup news for the later games by the time lock rolls around which is always a concern on these daytime slates.
When looking at the starting pitching on this early slate – the overarching theme is that it is far more floor than ceiling and DK has priced us to where are paying for perceived safety versus slate breaking upside. Jose Berrios at $10K after failing to crack double-digit DK points in 3 of his last 4 games starts us off and well, it seems aggressive to quite aggressive.
Marcus Stroman ($9.6K) takes on the same Nationals team he has faced twice in the last month, putting up 27 and 15 DK points, and gets the added boost of this being a 7 inning game. Jordan Montgomery ($8.8K) is a ground ball/soft contact machine that has not eclipsed 20 DK points in a month so this is another case where you are paying for run prevention versus K upside.
The issue you have is that going any lower on this slate – well, you have similar run prevention options who do not have the K ability to offset runs allowed and there is a real concern you could have a negative score from your SP’s.
So while I do not feel good about paying up for “safe” arms – I think it is a necessary evil on this slate and my advice is to build backwards and mix and match the arms as your salary allows. Taking the safe path with 20DK points from your arm may allow you to outpace the field in a significant way and I think it’s the path of least resistance.
So here we are – going double aces and well well well – the Tampa Bay Rays are on the slate. I swear guys, I don’t set out to do this but why are we kidding ourselves. Take the clear path because we all know we are the only ones who realize how deadly this lineup is.
Let’s make this one simple – if you get a lefty on the mound – you start with Zunino, Cruz and Arozarena. Albers threw his sinker as his primary pitch and guys, come on – we know the drill – who hits the sinker well from the right side? Yeah, Mike Zunino and his .300 ISO jump out but the real prize is Randy Arozarena and his – wait for it – .550 ISo and 81% HC rate.
Guys – Arozarena is hitting an HR today on a sinker. I will let you screenshot it right now. Go ahead – I will wait. See you later for the victory lap.
After the big “3” it becomes a lineup-based decision and much of that will depend on if Wander Franco is back in the lineup or not after missing Friday’s game with concussion-like symptoms but we will likely get some value like Manuel Margot and Jordan Luplow in the OF at $3K price points.
Now how do we afford the Rays and double aces? Well – my man Adam gave us an awesome path with Pittsburgh but I want to roll out another idea for you – how about the New York Mets?
Yes, I know it is a 7 inning game BUT the Mets are the road team so we get guaranteed 7 innings of AB’s which is a key decision point when playing this double-header bats and DraftKings really took the pricing down accordingly with almost every bat $1,000+ cheaper than they were last night.
Erick Fedde is a sinkerball arm who at home this year is giving up a 1.7 HR/9 with 45% hard contact and the Mets left-handed bats are stupid cheap today! Michael Conforto ($2.7K) is a free square today – the dude rakes against sinkers – a .338 ISO and 48% HC rate and you can pair him with the Squirrell – Jeff McNeil ($3K) who has a .200+ ISO mark of his own.
My goal today is simple – two top-tier arms, 5 Rays, and 3 Mets left-handed bats. Ride the wave baby!
Main Slate Breakdown
We have an 8 game MLB DFS Main Picks and Pivots Slate – well, assuming we get the all-clear with the Reds/Tigers game which seems like the one risky spot we have to watch. So here we are again with another small slate with Coors Field and its lofty run total staring at us to play the chalk.
I have to be honest – I have been staring at this slate all morning. I don’t really like it.
I know you come here for advice on who to play but to be truthful, this slate stinks. I hate the arms, I don’t love the offenses and the more I try and build the more I dislike it.
So – here is my advice – don’t play it.
My goal in Picks and Pivots is to teach you to be a successful MLB DFS player – it is never to give you the “right plays” or hand you a build. The goal is always to make you a player that can succeed on their own using the principles we outline here.
One of those – one we rarely talk about – is taking slates off.
Yeah, FOMO is real and it will drive people to play “just because” – but that’s how you make mistakes and drain bankroll.
So instead take the slate off. If I don’t get a good feel on a slate (like tonight’s) then I simply don’t play it.
This is something I NEVER did starting out playing DFS but it is something I learned over the years and it has made me a far more consistent player who avoids the dreaded “deposit” button.
MLB DFS Picks and Pivots – The Wrap-Up
So we step back and look at these two MLB DFS Picks and Pivots slates and my advice is simple – rock the first one, play some NASCAR mid-day and then take the night off – grab a cold one and enjoy the evening.
Good luck tonight all! Let’s keep that hot streak rolling! Come join the Win Daily Sports Team – grab a Gold Membership and take advantage of all the tools, articles, and expert coaching we can give you to make you a consistent winner in DFS.
Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @2LockSports and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!
