Gary Gustafson 
Welcome back MLB DFS fans! Tonight, we have another solid slate on DraftKings with big prizes pools to take down so let’s get started with our top MLB DFS picks for today’s slate!
For those of you new to Picks and Pivots, the goal of this MLB DFS article each and every day is to provide you a “First Look” overview of the slate where we use DraftKings pricing as a baseline to help us get started. Rather than simply write out the “top plays,” this article will focus on slate strategy and roster construction with a GPP mindset to help you get started on your initial builds. Without further ado, let’s dive into today’s slate!
MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Starting Pitchers
We head to the final Saturday of the MLB DFS regular season and when building lineups on this 11 game slate, there is one clear top arm that will be your first decision point in builds – Luis Castillo ($9.8K).
Over the last three games Castillo has been simply elite – posting 30+ DK points in each outing as the Reds march towards the postseason. In those outings, Castillo has a massive 16.7% swinging strike rate with a 31% K rate and today he will face a Twins line-up with a 25.6% K rate against RHP this season.
The pitching on this slate is largely underwhelming, so taking the best pure K arm on the slate who just happens to be pitching the best he has all season seems like an easy plug and play for under $10K on DK.
Tucker Davidson ($6.5K) is an SP2 option that jumps out to me on this slate as he offers us tantalizing K ability as proven through the minor leagues (27% K rate at AA) and one look through his scouting reports gives you an idea why the left-hander has created buzz. Davidson has a heater that can touch 100 MPH with a nasty curveball that grades out as his best pitch and well can leave hitters looking like this…
MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Bats and Stacks
The pricing on Luis Castillo as the SP1 leaves significant salary room already for our bats and the ability to drop down in our SP2 pool with Davidson really sets this slate up for some heavy-hitting bats alongside our arms.
The Houston Astros have the highest IRT at 5.4 as of this writing and considering they are facing Kyle Gibson who has combined to give up 15 hits, 3 HR and 8 ER in 2 of his most recent outings – it is not hard to see why. However the rub is that in between those two shellackings, Gibson actually went 9 shutout innings against this same Houston team he will face today – so which Gibson will we get today?
Looking back at that start though tells you the Astros were largely unlucky – as Gibson pitched to over an 80% contact rate, generating just an 8% swinging strike rate and held the Astros to a clear outlier of a .200 BABIP – well over .100 lower than his season average.
All that means going back to Houston here and assuming those balls hit right at fielders last game, fall in for base hits and big time DFS results. The spot to attack Gibson with all season has been lefties, as he is giving up a .250 ISO to LHB which puts Tucker, Brantley and Reddick at the top of the splits pool.
The other thing to look at – Gibson is a high ground ball arm, generating 52% of balls hit on the ground – so we want to balance that with fly-ball hitters. The hitters with the biggest FB to GB difference on Houston are George Springer (10% more FB), Alex Bregman (16%), Josh Reddick (9%) and Dustin Garneau (40% in a small sample).
What better way to end the MLB DFS regular season than with a LESTER NIGHT?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!
Yes, that is right – Jon Lester makes his final start of the 2020 regular season and sweet sassy mollasy – he has to face the Chicago White Sox.
So we have a line-up that mashes LHP to the tune of a .225 ISO since 2019 and a pitcher who is giving up a .212 ISO and 42% HC rate to RHB in 2020? As you can imagine – this likely has a similar outcome to the last timeole Jonny Boy faced the White Sox when he gave up 4 HR’s and 8 ER’s in just 3.2 IP.
I am stacking the White Sox.
I am stacking against Jon Lester.
Join me on this wild ride.
Happy Freakin’ Lester Day!
MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Wrap up
This slate seems very cut and dry to me with Castillo as the clear priority at SP and with the Astros/White Sox both profiling as elite high upside offenses. Really the key comes down to your SP2 decision and what sort of value we unlock during the day – but dropping down to the “unknown” with Davidson could be the key to unlocking this slate’s builds.
Stick around in Discord today and let’s talk some baseball!
Let’s get it tonight my friends!
Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @2LockSports and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate as sports FINALLY return.
