Gary Gustafson 
Welcome to the Saturday edition of MLB DFS Picks and Pivots where we dive into the top fantasy baseball plays and slate strategy to help you take down tournaments all season long at Win Daily Sports!
If you are new to MLB DFS Picks and Pivots, the goal of this article is not simply to list out the “best plays” but rather to walk through the context of the slate and help you identify the best arms and stacks to build around for MLB DFS tournament play. We will use DraftKings pricing as our anchor and help you get a head start on your winning builds!
Early Slate Breakdown
Welcome my friends to a full day of MLB DFS Picks and Pivots action where we get 6 games on an early slate that is by far my preferred slate to play based on the player pool and contest selection and I plan on playing much heavier early as a result because I think this slate is fascinating and we could really give ourselves a strong GPP edge.
Pitching Picks
What I really love about this Early Slate is the pitching pool and how chaotic it can/likely will be – because it is Max Scherzer ($10.7K) as the clear stud up top and then a giant grab bag of SP2 choices to pair with them. Let’s get this out of the way – you simply lock in Mad Max and move on – do not try and get cute and play ownership or leverage – you just click him in.
Scherzer has arguably been the most dominant pitcher in all of baseball the last month with a 39.2% K rate that ranks third in baseball and a 32.6% CSW rate that ranks second in the league the last 30 days. All that has resulted in crazy high ceiling games – with 3 of his last 5 being 38, 39 and 44 DK points. If Max is Max today – that ceiling is and his place in your lineup is just the cost of entry to play this slate. Even if he is 80% owned – that means 20% of people are drawing dead by fading him.
The next step though is where it gets REALLY interesting and ownership will be critical in determining this next step but I can more or less bank on the fact most will skip right past Sonny Gray ($9.6K) and look to go cheaper at SP2 but if we simply look at recent trends – I would tell you that is a mistake.
We preach recent trends for arms all the time here at Picks and Pivots and Gray has been an elite K arm the last month with a top 20 K rate at 25.5% and a CSW rate of 32.3% that is fractions of a point behind Mr. Scherzer and 7th in all of baseball. The Reds are a game out of the Wild Card going into play today and this is crunch time for their playoff chances – they simply need their ace to deliver and match zeroes with Mad Max on the other side of this game and I just don’t see people going double aces on this slate which gives us a chance to get Gray at low ownership on a 6 gamer – if that plays out in ownership, I am all in.
Stacks on Stacks
The best part about this slate construct is that we have Mad Max as a default SP1 but it comes with a TON of high-powered offenses with power and lofty run totals that is going to make roster construction a key today.
We have the Red Sox, Yankees, Dodgers and Blue Jays all on this slate with 5+ IRT’s and oh yeah, the best offense in baseball in the Tampa Bay Rays.
Listen, you guys know I will play the Rays any day and I am totally fine going that route today if you want but I simply cannot prioritize them over the Boston Red Sox against LHP Zac Lowther and the Orioles bullpen.
Lowther is a “AAAA” arm – a depth arm that projects as a bulk reliever who by all accounts is not ready for this stage. The Orioles called him up earlier this year in May for a start against this same Boston team and he got his teeth kicked in with 7 runs in just 2 innings – then went back to AAA and pitched to a 7 ERA before coming back up and watching the Blue Jays score 7 runs on him in just 2 innings last start out.
The Red Sox offense can absolutely win you this slate by themselves especially when you consider what follows Lowther – literally the WORST pen in baseball, like staggeringly worse. The Orioles have a team ERA of 7 the last month and have given up 84 runs from their bullpen during that team – no other team in baseball is within even TWENTY runs of that total – that is how bad they have been.
I am ALL IN on this Red Sox offense today – give me five of them on DraftKings with two aces and let’s ride. Just keep one thing in mind – this team is in a virtual three-way tie for a playoff spot and we saw them pinch-hit Kike for Verdugo the other day in a tight game so there is risk in some of these platoon type plays you need to keep in mind but I do not care – this Red Sox team has the upside today to score 15-20 runs and I want all of it.
Now – going 5 Red Sox stars and double aces may seem like I found a way to circumvent the DraftKings salary cap but with $2K+ per batter for a mini-stack we actually look like we have multiple options based on the projected lineups.
The Cleveland Indians have SIX players in their projected lineup priced between $2K and $2.6K. SIX OF THEM! They are a road team in Yankee Stadium, sure I would love a team of free squares thanks!
If they don’t work out? I can wait til later – how about the Colorado Rockies against Patrick Corbin with Garrett Hampson at $2.4K with 2B/OF eligibility or multiple $2K punts in the IF/OF. Or we just wait and play the Detroit Tigers against Ryan Yarbrough, who has been dreadful lately and they have 5 batters in the projected lineup under $3K today.
Are you tracking what I am laying down?
Double aces, Red Sox, 3 man value.
Print Money.
MLB DFS Picks and Pivots – The Wrap-Up
My focus today is on the MLB DFS Picks and Pivots Early Slate and I absolutely LOVE IT. For GPP’s this one is an ownership dream where I think slate strategy is going to be critical and we can gain a massive edge!
If you are looking for some Main Slate breakdown – my man Adam Strangis nails it in Starting Rotation today!
Good luck tonight all! Let’s keep that hot streak rolling! Come join the Win Daily Sports Team – grab a Gold Membership and take advantage of all the tools, articles, and expert coaching we can give you to make you a consistent winner in DFS.
Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @2LockSports and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!
