Brian Tulloch 
Welcome back MLB DFS fans! Tonight, we have another solid slate on DraftKings with big prizes pools to take down so let’s get started with our top MLB DFS picks for today’s slate!
For those of you new to Picks and Pivots, the goal of this MLB DFS article each and every day is to provide you a “First Look” overview of the slate where we use DraftKings pricing as a baseline to help us get started. Rather than simply write out the “top plays,” this article will focus on slate strategy and roster construction with a GPP mindset to help you get started on your initial builds. Without further ado, let’s dive into today’s slate!
MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Starting Pitchers
Looking at this Saturday Night Main Slate, my general feeling on the pitching is – I am fine with whatever I end up with and am simply not prioritizing any arms on this slate. Sure Zac Gallen is probably the best option but he is also going to be near-universally owned as a result of the weak pitching slate but does he have the ceiling that makes him a must roster? Frankly – I would argue he does not, as he has failed to reach even 20 DK points in 4 of his 9 starts in 2020 and has not once exceeded 30 DK points.
Zach Plesac ($8K) has the kind of K metrics we look for in MLB DFS with a 27% K rate and 14% SS rate and while the match-up with Minnesota is not the easiest, this is also a team with a 25.7% K rate in tonight’s projected lineup. Plesac has gone 6+ innings in every single start in 2020 and has flashed upside in similarly scary match-ups against the White Sox where he racked up 38 and 28 DK points.
I could see someone like Tejay Antone getting ownership after back to back solid outings and a 33% K mark in a small 2020 sample size, but this is an arm who has no higher than a 22% K mark at any stop in the minors so will the masses flock to the game logs over the pedigree?
It is hard to argue though that his stuff doesn’t play at the MLB level and this could be a case of someone coming into their own after Tommy John surgery who is using his full arsenal of pitchers to fool big league hitters who have yet to get a long look at him.
MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Bats and Stacks
We have a game in Coors Field tonight and with no real must have arms, I expect the ownership to be heavily skewed towards this game stack tonight. I do think this gives us an interesting pivot option where we can game stack the Tigers-White Sox which has the second-highest total (10) on the board, trailing only Coors Field.
The White Sox are the marquee attraction here as they take on Michael Fulmer before Daniel Norris comes in as the lefty long reliever. Of the last two weeks this Detroit bullpen has been among the worst in baseball, with a 5.77 xFIP which is the worst in the league while giving up 14 HR which is the 2nd worst mark in that time period.
We know the drill by now – the White Sox 1-7 is going to be a prime stacking spot and the question becomes which two bats do you leave out? Do you go E5 or Abreu at 1B? Or do you skip the 1B options to prioritize the OF duo of Eloy/Luis Robert?
The nice part about this White Sox stack is that they correlate well with the Tigers – especially with 2B Jonathan Schoop as a key piece in a game stack since the White Sox lack that big time 2B bat.
I actually think Rodrigo Lopez will get some traction as a cheap SP2 on this slate as people simply “play whoever is facing the Tigers” but that could give us a great leverage mini-stack against an arm with a 6.27 xFIP, 47% HC rate and .300+ ISO mark allowed in 2020.
Lopez relies heavily on his slider to RHB and Mr. Schoop hammers that offering to the tune of a .273 ISO and average distance of 316 feet in over 100 batted ball events. Rocking a 5 man White Sox stack with Schoop on the other side is going to be my core GPP approach this evening.
MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Wrap up
Tonight is a GPP kind of night for me – the chalk doesnt feel necessary or optimal so I am fine building backwards – building my stacks and letting the arms fall where they may.
Stick around in Discord today and let’s talk some baseball and let’s get ready for Week 1 of the NFL season with loads of articles, our new custom projections and our expert chat to start this season off with a bang.
Let’s get it tonight my friends!
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