David Stowe 
Welcome back MLB DFS fans! Tonight we have the FINAL MLB DFS slate of the season with a Game 7 in the ALCS which will make this the last multi-game slate of this crazy abbreviated baseball season.
We are looking to go out with a bang here and build that bankroll before Sunday’s NFL DFS action – and if you have not yet – make sure you read our FREE Week 6 Game by Game breakdown and if you are new to Win Daily – jump into FREE Discord with us and get all the expert help you need to win big!
For those of you new to Picks and Pivots, the goal of this MLB DFS article each and every day is to provide you a “First Look” overview of the slate where we use DraftKings pricing as a baseline to help us get started. Rather than simply write out the “top plays,” this article will focus on slate strategy and roster construction with a GPP mindset to help you get started on your initial builds. Without further ado, let’s dive into today’s slate!
MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Saturday Slate Breakdown:
After days and days of sorting through scraps for pitching – we open up today’s slate and see a stable of elite arms which makes this a slate that should/could play differently from what we have been seeing. We have four arms in Walker Buehler/Max Fried and Lance McCullers/Charlie Morton who all have demonstrated K upside and have game logs from the LCS to support it. All four arms delivered solid performances the first games of this series ranging from 18 DK points (Buehler), 21 (Morton), 25 (Fried) all the way up to the ceiling of McCullers (32).
McCullers is the clear outlier, the 11 strikeout ceiling performance standing out among the field and his $8.3K price point on DK will likely make him an easy spend up option on this slate. The Rays offense has consistently been the one to attack for K upside as this is a projected line-up with a 27-28% K rate and we have seen other Astros starters hit for strong games with Framber Valdez (20 and 29 DK points) and Zack Greinke (24 DK) showing us the path to cashing tends to go through the Rays K heavy offense.
The flip side – McCullers is the only arm of the four giving up a .200+ ISO to hitters and oh by the way, he does that to both sides of the plate. That K upside comes with some serious power risk and let’s not overlook he gave up 2 bombs to the Rays (Margot/Zunino) and this was after getting tagged for 3 HR’s in his start against Oakland where Davis, Olson and Murphy took him deep.
So in GPP’s – I think we have to assume, McCullers is the chalkiest of the options and because of the HR risk he has displayed in the postseason and the overall ISO risk he has had all 2020 – I would argue the Rays are the best leverage stack we could ask for.
Not only do they have a path against McCullers but this Astros bullpen has been up against the wall for days now – using closer Ryan Pressly in each of the last 3 games with Scrubb/Javier working last night and two of the last three days.
So I think taking a path and stacking the Rays could end up being an elite way to attack this slate. The Rays have been the definition of homer happy in the postseason with 70%+ of their runs coming via the long ball and from a DFS perspective – that is what is going to win you money on a two game slate.
It all starts with Randy Arozarena but by and large, this Rays team is priced down outside of him which makes stacking them alongside another elite offense – a really easy way to build on DK.
My other take from this game – the Rays may be reeling a bit, but Kevin Cash knows he has the best bullpen arms ready to go tonight and I think with Charlie Morton and that pen behind it, it gives you a path to a Rays onslaught kind of build.
So rock Morton with a Rays stack – hope Tampa gets to McCullers early and gives Uncle Charlie a path to another 5 inning win and 20 DK points and you could have the core build that drives you over the cash line.
The Dodgers/Braves game is the first one up on the slate and I actually think this one could be more of a true pitcher’s duel despite the two elite offenses. This is far more anecdotal than it is analytical – but with the ALCS game being a winner take all Game 7 – I think that one plays far more chaotic than this NLCS counterpart where they may need to live to fight another day.
With the Braves using a bullpen game in Game 5 – they may need Max Fried to go a bit deeper and old tight pants himself, Walker Buehler is going to look for another 100+ pitch outing with some more efficency to lengthen this series for the Dodgers.
This game being played in the afternoon could actually help the pitcher’s as well if Globe Life Field keeps the roof open and we start to get shadows later in the game to impact the hitters ability to pick up the pitches.
I am going to lean Buehler here tonight just on pure stuff and K metrics alone as his 31% K rate in 2020 and 14% SS rate far outpace any other arm on this slate.
Pair Walker with a LAD stack and attack Fried and a tired Braves bullpen – and you can hope you get a similar playbook to what we saw in TB/Houston last night. Houston got runs early and forced Tampa to use their lower-tier bullpen arms with a Game 7 coming up the next day.
If the Dodgers can get to Fried early, considering how many arms Atlanta had to use yesterday – they may simply save their best bullets for a Game 7 and that could mean some seriously positive late-inning matchups for those Dodgers bats.
UPDATE – With Chris Taylor OUT, Kike’ Hernandez ($3K) becomes a core play with his 2B/OF eligibility on DraftKings as he opens up any and every build you could want.
Picks and Pivots: Wrap up
Well kids – this is it. For real this time.
Enjoy this final slate – don’t simply play the best plays – think through game theory in all your lineups and the paths to profit. We can watch ownership as it updates during the day and use Discord to talk through the best paths to leverage.
Thank you all for reading along each and every day with MLB DFS Picks and Pivots – for now, I will be taking my talents to NFL – but we will see you back here in the Spring for hopefully – a normal MLB season.
And oh yeah – stack against Jon Lester.
Let’s get it tonight my friends!
Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @2LockSports and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate as sports FINALLY return.
