Gary Gustafson 
Welcome to the Saturday, May 22nd edition of MLB DFS Picks and Pivots where we dive into the top fantasy baseball plays and slate strategy to help you take down tournaments all season long at Win Daily Sports!
If you are new to MLB DFS Picks and Pivots, the goal of this article is not simply to list out the “best plays” but rather walk through the context of the slate and help you identify the best arms and stacks to build around for MLB DFS tournament play. We will use DraftKings pricing as our anchor and help you get a head start on your winning builds!
MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Early Slate Breakdown
We have ourselves a nice split slate MLB DFS Saturday and one with some interesting GPP’s on DraftKings that I think we can make some serious noise in today!
The early slate has 7 games on tap and the first step is locking in the ace in Shane Bieber ($11.2K). Bieber is the clear top K arm on this slate and with Minnesota banged up, he could get the benefit of attacking a Twins line-up that would be without both Nelson Cruz and Jorge Polanco.
The tricky part on this slate is that the bats are all pricey and in great spots, so my goal is to figure out a way to get Bieber and two high upside stacks. Well that is where Jordan Yamamoto ($4K) can unlock a ton for us!
Now the Mets have not officially named him the starter for Saturday so we need to watch the news but it is expected he will start either Saturday or Sunday against his old Marlins squad in Miami.
Yamamoto has shown swing and miss ability in his career with a 25% K rate and he has flashed the same ability in the minors this season but let’s be real this is a simple price and match-up play. The Marlins have the third highest K rate in baseball overall and are 2nd in baseball with a 27.2% K rate against right-handed pitching.
Over the last two weeks, no team in baseball has struck out more than Miami – at a massive 30.7% clip – so with all due respect to Jordan, I would argue any pitcher at $4K on DK facing Miami is in play – add in the REVENGE narrative and we are off and running!
The bats are what is going to win you this slate and frankly, we have a ton to choose from. However this Nationals and Orioles game jumps out to me with our boy Jon Lester and LHP Bruce Zimmerman on the mound.
We have two arms with 5+ xFIP marks, sub 20% K rates and ideal hitting conditions in Washington which makes this a game stack that could pay off in a huge way.
Listen, we know the deal with Lester – the regression is coming and when it does it will come from the right-handed power bats. Trey Mancini, Austin Hays and Anthony Santander make for a high upside mini-stack in the heart of the Orioles order with the splits advantage and the power against LHP to make them pay off.
Mancini in particular jumps out like crazy – with a .356 ISO and 55% HC rate against LHP this season and some crazy pitch type data. Lester relies heavily on his cutter and Mancini has a .480 ISO and 50% HC rate against that pitch type!
On the other side of this game – the Nationals stack is pricey against LHP Bruce Zimmerman but considering that he has surrendered a .200+ ISO mark to hitters from both sides of the plate with 40%+ hard contact, they could easily pay off their price tags.
Any Nationals stack starts with Juan Soto and Trea Turner and frankly, adding them is the reason we need to pay down to a guy like Yamamoto as our SP2. My favorite way to make this stack different though is to work a wrap-around with Josh Harrison, Yan Gomes and Jordy Mercer at the bottom before you wrap around to Soto/Trea at the top of the line-up.
Going with a Bieber SP1 line-up and a Baltimore/Washington game stack gives you the ideal GPP upside path in that you have a 30+ DK point arm and two offenses facing wildly hittable left-handed contact arms.
MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Main Slate Breakdown
The six-game MLB DFS Main Slate has a similar look and feel in that we have Walker Buehler as a seemingly must have SP1 and while we have some $4K SP2’s – I am not going to play Scott Kazmir in the year 2021 (even though part of me REALLY wants to.
Instead – I think living in the Adbert Azolay range as an SP2 makes sense and we have enough value in a game stack I love to make it all work – and that game is Toronto and Tampa Bay.
We have Shane McClanahan and Robbie Ray on the mound – literally, the carbon copy story – huge K upside and huge power allowed to RHB. That is why this game stack is so appealing to me – they either strike out a ton or give up a HR derby in Dunedin – GPP perfection if you ask me.
All the obvious stars on both sides are in play with Vlad & Bichette the clear top dogs on the Toronto side and on the Tampa side we have a loaded $3K range of hitters with guys like Yandy, Brosseau, Zunino and Margot which makes this a cost-effective stack to build.
The key could be some of the punts with $2K Taylor Walls and/or $2.3K Jonathan Davis that opens up a path to jamming in the big bats and taking the “clear path” with our arms.
With the Jays moving to their AAA stadium in Buffalo on June 1st, this may be one of our last chances to take advantage of a Dunedin game stack with warm temperatures expected and two pitchers that can serve up power – giddy up!
MLB DFS Picks and Pivots – The Wrap-Up
I love these split slate Saturday’s for MLB DFS as we can really get creative in how we build.
Today these slates offer clear SP1 aces that feel like must haves but it comes with high dollar offenses that are going to be priority and as such it will mean getting creative with cheap SP2’s and/or finding value within our preferred game stacks!
Good luck tonight all! Let’s keep that hot streak rolling! Come join the Win Daily Sports Team – grab a Gold Membership and take advantage of all the tools, articles, and expert coaching we can give you to make you a consistent winner in DFS.
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