Brian Tulloch 
Welcome to the Saturday, July 17th edition of MLB DFS Picks and Pivots where we dive into the top fantasy baseball plays and slate strategy to help you take down tournaments all season long at Win Daily Sports!
If you are new to MLB DFS Picks and Pivots, the goal of this article is not simply to list out the “best plays” but rather to walk through the context of the slate and help you identify the best arms and stacks to build around for MLB DFS tournament play. We will use DraftKings pricing as our anchor and help you get a head start on your winning builds!
Main Slate Breakdown
Welcome into the 10 game Saturday Night MLB DFS Picks and Pivots Main Slate where we have continued rain concerns we need to navigate through another Coors slate, and a whole lot of high-priced arms.
The biggest issue on this slate is working through the considerable rain risk we have up and down the East Coast tonight as the game in Washington and New York (NYY) seem like the biggest trouble spots. The issue with those games – we have arguably the best stack on the board with San Diego and one of the top aces in Gerrit Cole. Fun times.
If I step back and look at this slate, I think the offense is where you need to anchor to again – and it feels like the paths are SUPER chalky. We have the Dodgers in Coors Field and the Padres right-handed heavy line-up against Corbin and the Nats bullpen.
These two teams combined for 30+ runs last night. They are going to be super popular and honestly, it is hard to argue it.
The best part about these two teams is how they correlate and also how much value we have.
The Padres will give us a punt catcher with either Caratini or Rivas at $2.2K or $2K respectively and that becomes a massively important part of getting the big bats we covet. Now, we have also seen them give Jurickson Profar and or Ha-Seong Kim spot starts against lefites and with Mad Max pitching tomorrow, this would be the likely spot if they choose to go that route.
Even if they do not utilize some of the pure punts – the reality is, across both San Diego and LA, you have underpriced bats. In fact, the Padres are projected to have 4-5 bats under $4K and the Dodgers are likely to have both Albert Pujols and Austin Barnes under $4K with LHP Kyle Freeland on the mound.
The value at the low and mid-range here is why you can so easily afford to lock in the Betts and Tatis and you get your choice of Justin Turner or Manny Machado at 3B.
All of this means you are living in the $7K range for arms and honestly – that feels totally fine.
The player pool in this range in my opinion is vast with Max Fried ($7.8K), Luis Castillo ($7.5K), Blake Snell ($7K) and Brady Singer ($6.6K) standing out as great mix and match options depending on the lineups we get from LAD and SD.
As he always does – Adam Strangis nails Starting Rotation, so I am not going to wax poetic about arms he already talked about – with one exception, Blake Snell.
Listen, I get the little IL red sticker next to his name gives you pause after bouts with COVID-related fatigue and stomach issues, but we are getting a 30% K arm at $7K. Think about that – a 30% K arm – at $7K. As long as we have no pitch count confirmation ahead of the game, at $7K you are getting a massive discount on an arm that was priced at $10.2K just two months ago.
MLB DFS Picks and Pivots – The Wrap-Up
This MLB DFS Picks and Pivots slate feels super straightforward and maybe even chalky, but as a single entry player – I really cannot argue the path. The Dodgers/Padres bats are in amazing spots and you can stack them so easily with the $7K arms we have available to us tonight.
The only concern is really the rain and making sure they get the game in because in both cases we get elite offenses on the road and 9 guaranteed innings of at-bats. Buckle up because tonight is all about the offense again!
Good luck tonight all! Let’s keep that hot streak rolling! Come join the Win Daily Sports Team – grab a Gold Membership and take advantage of all the tools, articles, and expert coaching we can give you to make you a consistent winner in DFS.
Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @2LockSports and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!
