Brian Tulloch 
Welcome to the Saturday edition of MLB DFS Picks and Pivots where we dive into the top fantasy baseball plays and slate strategy to help you take down tournaments all season long at Win Daily Sports!
If you are new to MLB DFS Picks and Pivots, the goal of this article is not simply to list out the “best plays” but rather walk through the context of the slate and help you identify the best arms and stacks to build around for MLB DFS tournament play. We will use DraftKings pricing as our anchor and help you get a head start on your winning builds!
MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Slate Breakdown
Opening up this Saturday Main Slate with 6 games on the MLB DFS slate, we are once again confronted with the question of how we attack the Dodgers in Coors Field.
With a 7+ run total after scoring 11 runs last night, the Dodgers are going to be insane chalk again – with the core batters all sitting around 40-50% ownership in GPP’s.
Listen, I get it – but baseball is the one sport where I am willing to fade the chalk ESPECIALLY when it comes to hitters as there is no DFS sport with the variance that baseball has when it comes to batters. If the Dodgers go nuts, I am done for – but if they flop at 50% ownership, that is the kind of crazy leverage where you could get a GPP takedown, and frankly, that is the goal any time we play tournaments.
The chalk builds tonight on DK look like Corbin Burnes as your SP1 with as many Dodgers as you can jam in and for cash, I am fine following that path – but for GPP’s we have more than enough viable pivots.
First off – we pay up for pitching – at both spots – all the way up with both Walker Buehler and Lance Lynn who are both over $9K. Buehler over the last two season has a 30% K rate, 13% swinging-strike rate and faces a Rockies projected lineup that has a 27% K rate against RHP since 2019.
Lynn meanwhile is at his best against right-handed heavy teams, sporting a 32.4% K rate against RHB since 2019 and will face likely 6 righties in the Angels lineup.
In both cases, Walker in Coors and Lynn against the Angles are not spots that stand out as “must have” environments for SP’s and couple that with the fact everyone wants Dodgers will leave these guys 10-20% owned tonight. I will take the known commodities on the mound with 30% K rate upside every time and tonight going Buehler/Lynn will be a massive difference maker.
For our stacks – this is easy – we have a right-handed heavy team against a lefty that has been throttled by RHB since 2019 to the tune of a .253 ISO. Caleb Smith is in for a hurting tonight against the San Diego Padres who can roll out a Murderer’s Row of right-handed power.
All of Fernando Tatis Jr. Manny Machado and Wil Myers have .250+ ISO marks against LHP since 2019 and I would argue that this stack has every bit the power upside to match the Dodgers tonight. Looking at ownership right now – you can get a Machado/Myers/Cronenworth middle of the order stack for combined 5-7% ownership – compare that to a Turner/Bellinger/Lux stack at 40% ownership and ask yourself if the Dodgers are really 8-9X more likely to outscore the Padres middle of the order.
One of the ways I think you can get serious leverage tonight is to not only ignore the Dodgers but to attack the chalky Corbin Burnes. Burnes is pushing nearly 60% ownership tonight as of this writing and I am sorry, but that is exactly where I think we can get a huge advantage on the field.
Burnes has electric K stuff for sure, but he also gives up a ton of power, especially to lefties, with a .200 ISO and 43% HC rate allowed to LHB since 2019. The Twins tonight will roll out 4 lefties but they also throw out right-handed batters with some serious reverse splits and while Burnes has shown he has elite K ability this is also a pitcher who gave up 3 HR/9 in 2019 before his breakout 2020.
Now – I would not make the Twins a priority stack – but I do love the idea of using them as a mini-stack around the Padres tonight as a handful of the Twins profile really well against Burnes.
Burnes throws his slider nearly 40% of the time to righties and guys like Miguel Sano and Byron Buxton hammer that pitch type with .200+ ISO marks and 300+ average distance traveled. Against LHB, Burnes relies on his cutter nearly 40% of the time and Max Kepler and Jorge Polanco have .400 and .280 ISO marks against that pitch type.
With Burnes being so popular tonight, I think there are a variety of ways the Twins bats get to him and picking off 1-2 bats with HR ability could help you get low owned dongs that also give you direct leverage off the chalk arm!
MLB DFS Picks and Pivots – The Wrap Up
Slates like tonight are the best and worst of MLB DFS. Listen, the Dodgers are the best spot on the board but the ownership pushing nearly 50% on these bats that is correlated with Corbin Burnes being SUPER chalky gives us the Ricky Bobby path tonight – either we are first or last.
I am happy to fade the chalk tonight and let the chips fall where they may. The San Diego Padres bats have all the upside to match the Rockies and allow me enough salary savings to also get two elite K arms. Two aces and a 5 man power stack at single digit ownership sounds lovely to me!
Enjoy this slate – let’s get in our FREE Discord today and chat it up while we dig through our cheat sheets and custom projections here at Win Daily to set up the start of this MLB DFS season with some big wins!
Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @2LockSports and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!
