Adam Strangis MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Saturday 8.22
Welcome back to MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Saturday 8.22! I’m Adam Strangis and I’m covering for Brian while he’s on vacation the next couple weeks. Tonight, we have another solid slate on DraftKings with big prizes to take down so let’s get started with our top MLB DFS picks for today’s slate!
For those of you new to Picks and Pivots, the goal of this MLB DFS article each and every day is to provide you a “First Look” overview of the slate where we use DraftKings pricing as a baseline to help us get started. Rather than simply write out the “top plays,” this article will focus on slate strategy and roster construction with a GPP mindset to help you get started on your initial builds. Without further ado, let’s dive into today’s slate!
MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Starting Pitchers:
Hopefully we can avoid the absolute tire fire that was Friday’s pitching today. Fortunately, we do have some pitchers to feel a little bit better about and it’s starting at the top with young ace Zac Gallen. I’m calling him an ace because he fully deserves it at this point for the 2020 season. His first 30 IP have been a gauntlet with the A’s, Dodgers, Astros, Coors and the Padres all on his resume.
He’s racked up a 30.3% K rate and a 13% swinging strike rate while keeping both his hard contact and fly ball rates under 32%. About the only metric that suggest some regression is the 96% strand rate, but with a 2.40 ERA regression isn’t going to kill him. He should not be under $10,000 on this slate to my eyes. The Giants only have a 21.8% K rate overall but are bottom 10 in OBP, OPS, ISO and wOBA to RHP. Even if San Francisco loads up on LHH, Gallen still strikes them out 28.3% of the time.
We like to get bold here in Picks and Pivots so the SP2 pick for today is going that route. Triston McKenzie is not likely a name you’ve heard of before opening this slate (raises hand). He hasn’t pitched competitively since 2018 since there is no minor league this season. Yet, he peaked at 33 on Baseball America’s prospect list that year.
Cleveland has a long history recently of producing great pitching. In the minors, McKenzie had a 24% K rate and a fly ball rate under 40%. Since he’s facing the Tigers, this is a gamble worth taking. They lead the league in K% to RHP and are 25th or worse in average, OBP, OPS, wOBA and wRC+. He’s under $5,500 which is cheaper than some hitters. Even 10-12 points can make McKenzie a great pick.
MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Stacks and Bats:
It might be a little tiring because they’ve been my guys but I go where the stats tell me to go. The stats say we have an offense facing a LHP tonight and is dominant in this split. Their ranks are –
wRC+ – Third
wOBA – Fourth
ISO – Second
OPS – Fourth
OBP – Ninth
Average – Seventh
Ladies and Gentlemen, we’re talking about your Baltimore Orioles. They are phenomenal as an offense to lefties and I plan to attack Martin Perez. He doesn’t strike anyone out at a 16.5% rate, has an xFIP over 6.00 with a 40% fly ball rate. Hanser Alberto, Renato Nunez, Pedro Severino and Anthony Santander all boast a wOBA over at least .335 and all but Alberto have a .233 ISO or higher. Also, Ryan Mountcastle is a great add at $2,600. The prospect can be a stack or a one-off option. In the MiLB last year, he smashed LHP for a .349 average and a .959 OPS.
We lived up to Brian’s reputation yesterday as the White Sox destroyed Jon Lester (insert Nelson Muntz HAHA!) and we channel him one again for the second stack. It’s not Picks and Pivots without some LA Dodgers love and they face a LHP tonight. Kyle Freeland is sporting a FIP almost two runs higher than his ERA and has no strikeouts to fall back on at just 14.6%. He’s living on a ground ball rate of 58.1% but the Dodgers are seventh in fly ball rate to LHP at 39.4%.
That’s a bad mix for Freeland and since we punted our SP2 spot, we have some salary. Mookie Betts, AJ Pollock and Chris Taylor are the first three in for me. However, don’t sleep on the LHH either. Freeland has given up a 2.45 HR/9 and a .321 wOBA through 16 hitters faced. Cody Bellinger and Max Muncy both have an ISO over .260 and a wOBA over .375 to LHP.
MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Wrap up
Hopefully we can nail the stacks as well as we did last night as the two teams approached 20 runs. Now, getting pitching right would be a nice step as well but the lineups come together really well with McKenzie. When we have a talented pitcher with a great organization against a terrible pitcher, it’s worth the risk. The Baltimore and Dodgers stack mesh super well and we can mix and match through their lineups.
Stick around in Discord today and let’s talk some baseball!
Let’s get it tonight my friends!
Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate as sports FINALLY return.
