Gary Gustafson 
MLB DFS Picks and Pivots – Thursday, July 23
Welcome back, boys and girls! It may be a few months later than we expected but MLB Opening Day is here and that means a summer full of MLB DFS contests and Picks and Pivots!
As we head towards Opening Day, DraftKings has put up massive GPP’s for the first few days including some interesting contests for the two-game opening night slate. One, in particular, catches my eye as we have a 3 entry max GPP with a $3 buy-in where you are guaranteed to at least win your money back. There is literally no risk and no reason not to max out that contest – so get in now before it fills up.
For those of you new to Picks and Pivots, the goal of this MLB DFS article each and every day is to provide you a “First Look” overview of the slate where we use DraftKings pricing as a baseline to help us get started. Rather than simply write out the “top plays,” this article will focus on slate strategy and roster construction with a GPP mindset to help you get started on your initial builds. Without further ado, let’s dive into today’s slate!
MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Starting Pitcher Breakdown:
On Opening Day (Night) we are looking at a small two-game slate that kicks off with the Yankees and Nationals in DC and is followed by the nightcap of the Dodgers and Giants in LA.
Heading into this slate, we knew we would have three aces taking the mound in Gerrit Cole, Max Scherzer and Clayton Kershaw and so while my initial take was that building lineups would be a constraint under the cap, it is clear that DraftKings had other ideas with some flat-out laughable pricing.
Gerrit Cole ($10K) is the most expensive arm on the slate for DraftKings but it is the pricing on Max Scherzer ($8.6K) and Clayton Kershaw ($7.7K) that stands out as egregiously soft and it makes getting in two of the top arms an easy first step in any build.
Looking back at last season, Cole and Max ranked first and third respectively in strikeout percentage with massive 39.9% and 35.1% rates and despite some concerns on opening pitch counts across baseball, it appears that DK has taken that into account in their pricing and allowing us a heavy discount without sacrificing the important K upside we need from our arms. Kershaw meanwhile ranks a distant third in terms of strikeout ability, sporting a 26.8%K rate which was still a top 25 mark in the league and gets the added boost of facing a weak Giants lineup in LA.
Even if the innings are limited for Cole/Max, I think the strikeout equity is simply too high to pass on either and the “savings” dropping down to a lesser K arm in Kershaw, does not get you enough of an offensive upgrade in my opinion. Also, consider that the Giants projected line-up only struck out 18% of the time against LHP last season so you are taking a lesser K arm in a match-up that is already suppressing his upside.
I am going to make this simple – the fact that we can roster two of the best strikeout arms in baseball on the same slate while still being able to afford nearly $4K per bat on DraftKings is a free square and I refuse to overthink it. So click on Cole and Max and let’s move on to the bats.
MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Bats and Stacks:
If you are new to Picks and Pivots, I am going to fill you in on a little secret after 5+ years of doing this column for MLB DFS.
I like stacking.
I like the Dodgers offense.
I like stacking…..the Dodgers offense.
I really like stacking the Dodgers offense against bad pitching.
The Giants are starting Johnny Cueto on Opening Night. (I think you see where this is going).
Since the start of 2018, there has simply been no better offense in baseball than the Los Angeles Dodgers and I say that not as a generic statement, it is based in statistical fact, as they have scored the most runs and home runs of any team in that two-season span while also leading the league in team ISO (.224) and ranking as the fourth-lowest team in terms of swinging-strike rate (9%).
Take those numbers and dive even further, looking just against right-handed pitching, and the league-leading runs/HR’s all stay the same while the ISO actually increases to .232 with another league-leading mark of a 42% hard-contact rate and a league-low soft contact rate of 15%.
What does that all mean? This team scores runs- a lot of them – and does so with hard contact without swinging and missing and getting more HR’s than any other team. Oh and by the way – this was BEFORE they added Mookie Betts to the outfield this season.
Now I am sure opposing starter Johnny Cueto is a lovely fellow, but the stats would tell you that over the last three seasons, of active starting pitchers with at least 200+ IP, he actually ranks among the worst arms in a few key metrics.
Cueto’s 4.5 xFIP and SIERA rank 33rd and 35th worst of all pitchers during that time frame and his 20.1% K rate is the 31st worst among the whole lot of MLB arms while generating bottom 50 swinging strike and soft contact metrics.
So let’s see, a pitcher ranking among the worst in the majors going up against the single best offense in baseball that just so happened to add Mookie Freakin’ Betts AND a designated hitter to the lineup? Yeah, this is stack city kids.
From a strategy perspective, this is where I think you can really push the envelope and max out the number of players that DraftKings will allow you to take from one line-up which is five. The fact that you can even play five Dodgers along with Gerrit Cole, Max Scherzer or Clayton Kershaw as your starting pitcher’s tells you everything you need to know about how this slate is mis-priced.
Up and down this line-up, this team absolutely mashes right-handed pitching and their individual ISO’s are simply staggering when you compare them to the league baseline. Since 2018, against right-handed pitching, the league average ISO has been .173 and for context – the Dodgers only have two (2!!!!) players with an ISO lower than that mark – one of which is Austin Barnes (the other is Gavin Lux).
In fact, the Dodgers have five players with .250+ ISO marks against RHP since 2018 with Will Smith (.381), Joc Pederson (.308) and Max Muncy (.299) leading the way. In fact, the only players in the projected starting line-up with a sub .200 ISO are Barnes and Justin Turner.
The addition of Mookie Betts PLUS a DH to this Dodgers line-up is just a recipe for DFS success and I think taking a stand with five Dodgers in each and every line-up is going to be how I attack this slate.
So how exactly do we prioritize the Dodgers bats?
Cody Bellinger ($5.1K) and Mookie Betts ($4.9K) are the obvious top tier and with Max Muncy ($4.6K) having 1B/2B eligibility on DraftKings, he gives you the ability to differentiate your roster construction depending on how you use him. To me – this trio is the core of any and all Dodgers exposure in my opinion.
Justin Turner ($4.1K) initially was not someone I thought I would prioritize but I think much of that was due to the value I thought I had in San Francisco with Evan Longoria. With Longo now confirmed on the IL to start the year, the 3B spot on DK is – well – not overly appealing – and this may be a spot where you use position scarcity to drive your stack pieces.
After Turner, honestly the “5th man in” really depends on your roster construction because I think you can make equal position scarcity arguments for someone like Will Smith at Catcher. The sample size is not overly material but last season and RHP, Smith led the team not only in ISO but also in average distance traveled at 324 feet with a massive 47% hard contact rate.
Now, in order to make all of this work – we are going to need SOME value and while we do not yet have confirmed starting line-ups, it seems clear the San Francisco Giants line-up is going to be most obvious spot to attack and with the recent news that Brandon Belt and Evan Longoria will start the year on the IL – it opens up even more value.
Someone like Brandon Crawford ($2.7K) at SS makes all the sense in the world within a Dodgers stack (assuming to skip Corey Seager in your stack) and becomes one of the ways we can find the value to get all the Dodgers we want along side our stud arms! Crawford is one of the few starting bats below $3K on the slate and this becomes a roster path to get you the big Dodger bats mentioned above.
The bat though that stands out to me on the Giants is a right-handed IF and one that I know very well from his days in Flushing. Welcome to Wilmer Flores day everyone.
If you are new to Wilmer Flores, there is a simple flow chart that you may find helpful.
Is a left-handed pitcher on the mound? Yes? Ok play Wilmer.
There you go, you are welcome.
Flores has always been a platoon splits darling for DFS and his .279 ISO against LHP last season reflects the power he has when facing southpaws – even those as talented as Kershaw. Kershaw relies heavily on his slider (40% of the time) to right-handed batters and this is a pitch Flores made 90%+ contact on to the tune of a .267 ISO last season – so if he gets a pitch like this from the Dodgers ace, he can handle it.
On FanDuel where Flores is $2.1K, he may be one of the best values on the slate. On DraftKings, they make you pay a bit more for him at $3.8K but he has the power to pay it off with one swing and makes for a great leverage one off against a likely super popular Kershaw.
One other name to keep an eye on is super prospect Joey Bart ($2.3K) who seems poised to take on every day catching duties for the Giants with Buster Posey opting out. The tea leaves have led most to believe Bart will not start with the big club as they look to maneuver around service time but without a true minor league season and the veterans on the Giants clamoring for the kids bat – could we see them give the kid a nod? If so, the pedigree alone is worth the punt price tag.
MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: The Wrap Up
Getting an edge on a two-game slate is not going to be an easy task but I think the key is taking stands and being overweight as you treat this almost like a single game or showdown type slate.
People will always try and get cute and play for leverage so let 5-10% of teams play Johnny Cueto and let them pay the rake. Sure the Dodgers will be popular but will people “only” play 3 or 4 Dodgers instead of going all-in with 5?
If Kershaw is the “pivot” off Cole/Max, gain extra leverage by grabbing a few cheap Giants bats against Kershaw and get the benefit of your value bats getting points against the arm you faded.
We still have a few days before we get lineups but I simply could not wait to get this first look out and I cannot wait to be in our Win Daily Discord all week talking baseball as we head into Thursday and Friday. Our team is ready to bring you daily content, tools, and projections and a community that will help you make this your best MLB season yet – and oh, by the way, use promo code “23” and you can join for your first month for just 23 CENTS. Literally cents. Like less than a quarter. Yeah, it’s that cheap.
Welcome back baseball. Welcome freakin’ back!
Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @2LockSports and be sure to sign up for a ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate as sports FINALLY return.
