Gary Gustafson 
Welcome back MLB DFS fans! Tonight, we have another solid slate on DraftKings with big prizes pools to take down so let’s get started with our top MLB DFS picks for today’s slate!
For those of you new to Picks and Pivots, the goal of this MLB DFS article each and every day is to provide you a “First Look” overview of the slate where we use DraftKings pricing as a baseline to help us get started. Rather than simply write out the “top plays,” this article will focus on slate strategy and roster construction with a GPP mindset to help you get started on your initial builds. Without further ado, let’s dive into today’s slate!
MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Starting Pitchers
We have a six game Main Slate here on Monday with one game (Tor/NYY) with some rain concerns that could further limit our player pool.
Once again it all starts with pitching in our MLB DFS roster builds and we start with the key metrics – K rate and swinging strike rate.
Today, it all seems pretty simple – when I can take two arms with 30% + strikeout rates and 14-15% swinging strike rates and still be able to get the offenses I want to stack.
So go ahead and lock in Zach Plesac ($7.6K) and Kevin Gausman ($6.1K) and move on.
Oh wait – you thought I was going to write up Max Scherzer, Zac Gallen or Dinelson Lamet?
After multiple days of going double aces, today I think is a day we can pivot to two arms that are showing elite level K ability in 2020 and are priced far too low considering those key metrics.
Gausman as the cheapest pitcher on the board is fascinating to me as this is an arm who has put up 16+ DK points in 7 straight starts and that includes starts in Coors (twice) and against the Dodgers (twice). Today he gets to pitch at home in San Francisco against a K heavy line-up in Arizona who since the start of 2019 is striking out at 22% clip against RHP.
Plesac meanwhile will take on the same KC lineup he just faced, striking out 6 batters, allowing just 1 ER and earning 25 DK points – oh and his price actually went down on DraftKings from $8.3K to $7.6K.
I certainly can make the argument for the high ends arms as our Adam Strangis did today in Starting Rotation but I also think there is some serious point per dollar upside on Gausman/Plesac that we cannot overlook today.
MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Bats and Stacks
Going low at pitcher means we can spend up for bats and well, on this short slate – it is hard not to rock some Slam Diego Padres who are arguably the best pure offense on the slate.
The Padres take on LHP Kyle Freeland, who since the start of last season is giving up a .245 ISO mark to RHB and the Padres have three hitters (Tatis, Machado and Myers) with .300+ ISO marks against LHP since last season.
The key here in attacking Freeland, a ground ball heavy arm, is to find guys that have fly ball tendencies – and that leads not only to Wil Myers but also to Austin Nola, who has a 3% higher FB rate than GB rate against lefites and gives you a Catcher hitting in the middle of the order to fit into your stack!
While Christian Javier has been solid to start 2020, I cannot help but think there is a little luck on his side as his xFIP and SIERA both sit 1.5 runs higher than his mid 3 ERA would have you believe. Add in the fact he has just a 7% SS rate and an over 80% contact rate – and you start to see how the regression train could be coming.
Now, lefties have had the most success against Javier, with a .236 ISO mark, so landing on bats like Tommy LaStella, Matt Olson and Robbie Grossman, who have .225, .250 and .290 ISO marks against RHP respectively since the start of 2019 is a nice way to begin this stack and they fit well around the Padres core bats.
MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Wrap up
Take the names out for a second – and if you just picked off metrics, I think it would be hard to argue that taking two arms with 30% K rates and 15% SS rates that also happen to be two of the lowest priced arms on the slate – would seem like an easy place to start.
The hope is that the “shiny” names up to in Mad Max, Gallen or Lamet will push people to pay up which means we have the ability to load up on the high priced bats without having to sacrifice on K upside.
Stick around in Discord today and let’s talk some baseball!
Let’s get it tonight my friends!
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