Gary Gustafson 
Welcome back MLB DFS fans! Tonight, we have another solid slate on DraftKings with big prizes pools to take down so let’s get started with our top MLB DFS picks for today’s slate!
For those of you new to Picks and Pivots, the goal of this MLB DFS article each and every day is to provide you a “First Look” overview of the slate where we use DraftKings pricing as a baseline to help us get started. Rather than simply write out the “top plays,” this article will focus on slate strategy and roster construction with a GPP mindset to help you get started on your initial builds. Without further ado, let’s dive into today’s slate!
MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Starting Pitchers
Monday MLB DFS is back in our lives and after a huge Week 2 for the Win Daily family once again, we have some bankroll to play with as we attack this 8 game slate which kicks off at 6:37 PM EST.
The pitching pool on this slate seems incredibly cut and dry for me – as we have three high K arms that all seem reasonably priced with Jacob deGrom ($10.5K), Luis Castillo ($9.8K) and Brandon Woodruff ($8.7K). All three of these arms rank about this highest swing and miss arms in baseball the last month as deGrom tops all pitchers with a 24.5% swinging strike rate with Woodruff at 15.4% and Castillo at 15.1% – all ranking in the top 12 in baseball during that time period.
deGrom’s ownership may be a bit lower than usual after a hamstring injury forced him out of last game early but if he deems himself healthy enough the pitch, he is the SP1 on any and every slate for me in MLB DFS.
The question of Castillo versus Woodruff – in some ways may come down to pricing and what you need at SP2.
Castillo is coming off back to back stellar outings with 33 and 37 DK points and faced a K heavy Milwaukee team he last faced, racking up 9 K’s on his way to 24 DK points.
Woodruff meanwhile has faced the Reds twice – striking out 8 and 5 batters with ranges of 12-25 DK points. Both opposing lineups have similar 24% K rates against RHP this season so it is a bit of a coin flip when you are being asked to choose between similar options.
The easy answer – would be to mix and match them as your SP2 alongside deGrom but that’s some serious hedge life and you want a decision from me right?
I would lean towards Castillo for upside, as he has gone 25+ DK points now in 5 of his last 10 outings (versus 3 for Woodruff) and I also think the recent form from Castillo pushes me to pay the little extra as he has been simply lights out his last two starts and with the Reds/Brewers fighting head to head for the last playoff spot in the NL – this could be a spot Castillo is asked to go the distance again.
MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Bats and Stacks
The Braves are the top stack on the board today as this is a lineup that has hammered LHP since the start of last season – with a projected lineup with a .244 ISO and 43.5% hard contact rate but the pricing makes it impossibly to go double aces if we stack the high priced Bravos.
What if we could pivot to another lineup facing a lefty – one with an ISO of .224 and 42.8% HC rate and one with a top 6 that has 5 batters with .235+ ISO marks each?
Welcome to the Houston Astros against LHP Marco Gonzales!
Gonzales is a pitch to contact, low K arm who while he is able to suppress ISO to righties, does give up a 48% HC rate to RHB in 2020. The top of this Astros lineup is loaded with pop as all of George Springer, Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman and Yuli Gurriel have high ISO marks against LHP. Gonzales relies heavily on his sinker to RHB and that is a pitch that Bregman, Gurriel and Josh Reddick all hammer with .200+ ISO marks.
Behind Gonzo is a Mariners bullpen with a bottom 5 xFIP (5.51) over the last two weeks and is second to last over the last month in baseball with a similarly;y terrible 5.58 xFIP. So once they get past the starter, the Astros can feast on one of the worst bullpens in all of baseball.
To go double aces and an Astros stack requires value – and well my friends, welcome to Jon Lester day and the super cheap Pirates bats.
The regression train has picked up serious steam in 2020 for Lester and while Pittsburgh should take advantage, I think this is more a secondary value stack than one you prioritize as an all in 5 man on DK. We saw Lester give up 8 hits and 5 ER his last start against Pittsburgh in PNC, but he was able to limit the long ball which caps the upside of the stack for DFS purposes.
I think for me, I will look to find the value plays to fill in around the Astros that have the underlying metrics. Jacob Stallings has a .211 ISO against LHP since 2019 with a massive 51% HC rate and at just $2.6K on DK, allows you cheap catching power. Jose Osuna is another dirt cheap option at $2.5K who can be used at 3B or OF on DK and has a .177 ISO mark against lefties from 2018-2019.
The Pirates are a team that can string together hits to knock Lester out and return value and I would focus on the cheapies – of which we have a ton – as 4 of the starters are priced under $3K and only Josh Bell is priced over $4K on DraftKings
MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Wrap up
With the weather getting cooler and the playoffs approaching, we only have a few more slates to anchor to elite arms with everything on the line – and that is the case for deGrom and Castillo today. With the Braves the likely chalk stack, I love the idea of taking the discount on the Astros who arguably have a similar upside in the top 5-6 in their lineup and allow you the salary flexibility to still pay up for high K arms.
Stick around in Discord today and let’s talk some baseball!
Let’s get it tonight my friends!
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