Gary Gustafson 
Welcome back MLB DFS fans! Tonight, we have another solid slate on DraftKings with big prizes pools to take down so let’s get started with our top MLB DFS picks for today’s slate!
For those of you new to Picks and Pivots, the goal of this MLB DFS article each and every day is to provide you a “First Look” overview of the slate where we use DraftKings pricing as a baseline to help us get started. Rather than simply write out the “top plays,” this article will focus on slate strategy and roster construction with a GPP mindset to help you get started on your initial builds. Without further ado, let’s dive into today’s slate!
MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Monday Slate Breakdown:
Well, we have made it my friends – in what is the last week of true “MLB DFS Slates” before we make it to the World Series and showdown/one game days – so let’s enjoy these two gamers while we can!
We kick off with the Astros/Rays in Game 2 of the ALCS after the Rays took home Game 1 on Sunday. Lance McCullers and Charlie Morton get the start for their teams and both present interesting cases from a DFS perspective with McCullers likely being one of the most critical decision points of the day.
McCullers has strong swing and miss stuff, sporting an 11% SS rate in 2020 and gets the added boost of a match-up with a Rays team that has a whopping 28% K rate against RHP this season.
Conversely, McCullers is giving up power – and lots of it – a .221 ISO to RHB and .245 ISO to LHB and that Jekyll/Hyde performance was on display in Game 1 of the ALDS against Oakland where he struck out 5 batters in the first 4 innings but it was overshadowed by the 8 hits and 3 HR’s allowed.
The Rays struck out at a 26.3% clip against RHP this season which was third most in the league so there is no doubt the K upside is there for McCullers – as is the risk – the definition of a boom/bust play.
My take here is simple – I think you are either using McCullers for the K’s OR you are stacking against him. Decision point #1.
The Morton/Astros side of this game seems far more tame in terms of the range of outcomes as you have a low K offense (19% versus RHP) against a righty with a 50%+ GB rate and sub .100 ISO against from RHB – of which the Astros whill have 6 in the line-up tonight.
Morton feels like a bend but don’t break – just “get me there” kind of play – and the Astros feels more like a one-off kind of offense (ie. Kyle Tucker) – hoping we can guess right on Morton’s 1.65 HR/9 allowed this season against LHB.
The nightcap is going to be a great one – game 1 of the Dodgers/Braves in a battle of the two best teams in the National League. From a pure metrics perspective, Walker Buehler is the best K arm on the slate – with a 32% K rate and 13% SS rate in 2020 and after his 8 K performance against San Diego last round, we know he has the stuff to get through any line-up.
In the NLDS we saw arms like Pablo Lopez and Sandy Alcantara rack up 7/8 K games against this dangerous Braves line-up before they jumped on Sixto Sanchez in Game 3.
The one “concern” – is Buehler is a fastball reliant arm, throwing it 60-65% of the time and there is no better fastball hitting team in baseball than the Braves. In the NLDS series I mentioned, the reason they jumped on Sixto in Game 3 is because his secondary offerings were inconsistent and he had to rely on the fastball which gets you into trouble quick with this Braves offense.
Max Fried on the other side of this game feels very much like Charlie Morton – a “get me there” path for an arm with just a 21.9% K rate on the season against a loaded Dodgers line-up. I just simply do not see the path here for Fried against a low strikeout Dodgers line-up with pop.
So where does that leave us?
Buehler and McCullers are the paths to the high K upside but they come with risk – both in the metrics and in the match-ups – but if they are on, they have the ability to set the cash line themselves on such a small slate.
Because Fried is the arm I have the least interest in – I also think that it leads me to stacking the Dodgers bats as a primary path for offense. When you take a step back and think through this path – you are getting the two best K spots on the slate alongside the offense that has the highest Vegas IRT – not a bad place to start.
What is interesting about this spot for the Dodgers is that the L/L match-ups could really be where we try and get different. The Dodgers have 3 lefties in Bellinger, Muncy and Seager who have shown the ability to hit lefties well -with Muncy and Bellinger sporting .250 ISO marks since 2019 and Seager having the most success in 2020 with a .213 ISO mark.
Picks and Pivots: Wrap up
These two game slates are all about taking stands and in some cases, building lineups backwards with who you don’t want first – to find out who you do want.
While there is risk with arms like Buehler and McCullers, I am going to take the K upside they offer and try to pick the right bats.
The Dodgers and Astros actually correlate well from a position perspective as stacks the more I build and this is a path I could see paying off. The Astros have a handful of lefty bats (Tucker, Brantley and Reddick) that can get me there off Morton’s splits and then it becomes attacking the Dodgers potent offense against the arm I feel most comfortable picking on.
Time to dig in – let’s get it today!
Let’s get it tonight my friends!
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