Gary Gustafson 
Welcome to the Monday, July 5th edition of MLB DFS Picks and Pivots where we dive into the top fantasy baseball plays and slate strategy to help you take down tournaments all season long at Win Daily Sports!
If you are new to MLB DFS Picks and Pivots, the goal of this article is not simply to list out the “best plays” but rather to walk through the context of the slate and help you identify the best arms and stacks to build around for MLB DFS tournament play. We will use DraftKings pricing as our anchor and help you get a head start on your winning builds!
Main Slate Breakdown
Before we jump into tonight’s MLB DFS Picks and Pivots slate – can, I just say – WHAT A DAY YESTERDAY! Seeing our team winning big in MLB and NASCAR and having members of our community post screenshot after screenshot with their biggest wins of the season was simply incredible and made the day for myself and the staff. We love to win – we love to see our community win more – I promise you that.
When looking at this nine-game MLB DFS slate tonight, what really stands out to me is the lack of “must-have” pitching and I think Adam nailed it in Starting Rotation that Brandon Woodruff may end up as overwhelming chalk by process of elimination. However, unlike on Saturday Night when Clayton Kershaw was that chalk arm, I think we have viable low-priced pivots tonight that we can use and that is likely where my builds begin.
Tylor Megill ($7.2K) has been incredibly impressive in his first two starts at the big league level against the Braves with a 5 inning, 8 K outing his last time out showing you the ceiling this kid possesses.
The right-hander has flashed a 30% K rate through two starts and this is very much in line with his minor league metrics/profile, so I think the swing and miss upside is something we can bank on to an extent, especially against a Milwaukee projected line-up with a 26% K rate against RHP this season.
On the season, the Brewers rank top 10 in K rate to RHP with one of the highest soft-contact rates and a top 10 ground ball rate which plays into Megill’s 50% ground ball rate that he has flashed in the minors and thus far in the bigs.
The slider is really his biggest swing and miss weapon against right-handed batters with a 50% whiff rate through two starts and we saw Megill ramp up the usage on it going from it being something he threw 20% of the time his first start, up to 30% the second time around.
Milwaukee is projected to have 4-5 right-handed batters in tonight’s lineup and the more the merrier as the RHB have been where the K upside has been thus far with a 36% K rate versus just 22% versus left-handed hitters.
Wily Peralta ($5.2K) is coming off his best outing of the year, with 5 innings of work, 80+ pitches, and 5 K’s on his way to 22 DK points against the Indians and now gets a high K match-up against the Texas Rangers.
The Rangers rank in the top 10 in K rate to right-handed pitchers this season and their projected line-up has a 24% K rate to RHP this year. Peralta uses a heavy four-seamer that operates like a sinker to generate swings and misses and an elevated ground ball rate. The Rangers as a team ranked top 5 in ground ball rate versus RHP with a 45% rate, and after seeing Peralta rack up a 57% GB rate last game, this is a similar path to success this evening.
Going double punt arms is key tonight to allow us to spend on bats- and spend we shall – and it all starts with the San Diego Padres against Jon Lester.
Listen, you guys know the drill with Lester who simply gets walloped by right-handed power, with a near .250 ISO mark allowed and you want him to navigate the right-handed heavy big bats of Tatis, Machado, Pham and Myers? Sure, good luck pal.
His cutter is the pitch we have outlined that you can attack with RHB as he has a .545 ISO mark allowed and Manny Machado specifically has a .684 ISO mark against that pitch type – I know he just homered twice yesterday and won us a lot of money – but how are you not going right back to the well here today?
Not only do we have a Lester Day but we also get the Tampa Bay Rays against Logan Allen who has given up a .348 ISO mark and 45% HC rate to right-handed hitters this season!
Mike Zunino is one of my favorite plays on this slate, with a .545 ISO mark against LHP this season, a near 60% fly-ball rate and he has a 60% HC rate against the FB/Slider combination which is Allen’s go-to nearly 70% of the time. My man is going deep tonight- book it!
MLB DFS Picks and Pivots – The Wrap-Up
I love how this MLB DFS Picks and Pivots slate is setting up with some solid cheap pitching options that allow us to prioritize the big bats of the San Diego Padres tonight in a SMASH spot against Jon Lester and the Nationals bullpen.
With no weather issues to speak of, I think we can really forge this path early in the day and go with a Padres/Rays core build around two arms with high K/high ground ball match-ups that work to their strengths.
Let’s keep crushing family!
Good luck tonight all! Let’s keep that hot streak rolling! Come join the Win Daily Sports Team – grab a Gold Membership and take advantage of all the tools, articles, and expert coaching we can give you to make you a consistent winner in DFS.
Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @2LockSports and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!
