Brian Tulloch 
Welcome back MLB DFS fans! Tonight, we have another solid slate on DraftKings with big prizes pools to take down so let’s get started with our top MLB DFS picks for today’s slate!
For those of you new to Picks and Pivots, the goal of this MLB DFS article each and every day is to provide you a “First Look” overview of the slate where we use DraftKings pricing as a baseline to help us get started. Rather than simply write out the “top plays,” this article will focus on slate strategy and roster construction with a GPP mindset to help you get started on your initial builds. Without further ado, let’s dive into today’s slate!
MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Starting Pitchers
Tonight’s 10 game MLB DFS Main Slate, the final Friday one of the regular season looks like it is clear for weather and locked with a ton of elite arms to choose from. This slate looks and feels similar to what we had two nights ago, headlined by Shane Bieber where winning lineups were routinely found with two aces and low dollar stacks so can we replicate that here tonight?
Yu Darvish ($10.8K) finds himself in the same spot that Bieber did two days ago, against a dangerous White Sox line-up and actually $600 more expensive than he was just 48 hours ago. Interestingly enough, Bieber was chalk on that slate – coming in at near 50% ownership in large field GPP’s so if we see Darvish getting the same, I can absolutely see the argument for an ownership fade.
White the White Sox offense is scary, the projected line-up does have a 26.2% K rate against RHP this season and they have 5 of 9 batters hitting from the right side which sets up well for Darvish and his massive 43.3% K rate against RHB. Yu faced the Sox back on August 23 and struck out 10 batters on his way to 33.6 DK points so the ceiling is very clearly there for the Cubs ace.
The best K arm on the slate over the last month has actually been Dinelson Lamet ($9.7K) as his 36.4% K rate ranks 5th in all of baseball during that time and the tops of any starters on this 10 game slate. Lamet has double-digit K’s in three straight starts and struck out 7 Giants the last time he faced them, back in July.
Lamet continues to drive a high first-pitch strike percentage, at nearly 70% the last month and 82% overall on the season – and that ability to get ahead gives him the ceiling in a pitcher’s park like San Fran to end the night as the top-scoring arm on the slate and he could get the added benefit of a complete game in the 7 inning double-header.
You can easily make the argument to pay down to Jose Urquidy ($7.1K) who gets the Rangers, a team he just faced, striking out 7 on his way to 30 DK points. The Rangers continue to roll out a lineup with a ton of K’s – in fact they five of nine batters with 30% or higher K rates and we saw Christian Javier strike out 6 of them last night. If you need the pay down – Urquidy is the clear top play.
The only other punt arm I could argue for tonight is a bit more fringy and that is Brad Keller against the Tigers. Now, this is not about Keller and his 17% K rate, this is about a righty against the Tigers – the best on paper match-up in baseball this season. 5 of the last 7 RHP who went against Detroit have put up 27+ DK points and 4 of those went for 30+ including arms like Zach Plesac and Brady Singer so while Keller is not the arm we typically want – the match-up has shown time and again it pays off.
Lastly, we have Kyle Wright, a similar low K punt but one who has back to back strong outings that is basically a throw away at this price on DK. Wright has faced the Mets/Nationals his last two times out and has gone for 96-98 pitches with 10 K’s to just 3 walks and has put up 29 and 13 DK points. If you get anything even close to the mid-point of those outings today – you have a chance to really build an all-star lineup.
MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Bats and Stacks
If the top end arms like Darvish draw the inflated ownership we saw on Bieber and others on Wednesday, I am absolutely interested in the double punt – going Urquidy with either Keller or Kyle Wright so I can load up on the bats that those spending for arms simply cannot get to.
If you are going this route the juggernaut Atlanta Braves line-up has to be at the top of your wish list against a low K arm in Chris Mazza. This line-up has an absurd .270 ISO against RHP this season where 7 of the 9 batters have .200+ marks and with 75 degree temperatures and slight wind blowing out in Atlanta – this could be yet another slate the Braves are the GPP offense to take down a GPP.
Go ahead and pick your poison – it really comes down to which secondary stack you may want and how it all fits together.
With that said – I love the idea of pairing the Astros with the Braves against the Rangers and Kyle Cody who has the highest SIERA and highest HC allowed to batters since 2019 of any arm on this slate.
The nice part about this correlation is you can pick and choose – both teams are loaded in the OF – but when you get to the infield, you can use the duo of Jose Altuve/George Springer to fill in 2B/3B on your roster and use your other spots to prioritize the Atlanta batters. If you pay down for arms, it really is a mix and match with whatever studs you want and it is easy to fit in nearly any combination!
MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Wrap up
Let’s keep an eye today on ownership and the buzz around the industry – if paying up for arms is the preferred strategy again – I think we have multiple paths to paying down and loading up on bats to make our builds different and gives us ton of leverage on the field.
Stick around in Discord today and let’s talk some baseball!
Let’s get it tonight my friends!
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