Brian Tulloch 
Welcome to the Friday edition of MLB DFS Picks and Pivots where we dive into the top fantasy baseball plays and slate strategy to help you take down tournaments all season long at Win Daily Sports!
If you are new to MLB DFS Picks and Pivots, the goal of this article is not simply to list out the “best plays” but rather to walk through the context of the slate and help you identify the best arms and stacks to build around for MLB DFS tournament play. We will use DraftKings pricing as our anchor and help you get a head start on your winning builds!
Main Slate Breakdown
Welcome my friends into a big Friday Night of MLB DFS Picks and Pivots where we have 15 games, tons of aces, a game in Coors that has an NFL-like implied total, and everything in between!
What is fascinating to me tonight is the pitching pricing – one day after DraftKings priced down arms like Aaron Nola and Charlie Morton nearly $2K lower than usual, it is like they are trying to correct it tonight by going absolutely bonkers with the $9K and up range. We have potential openers like Jack Flaherty at $10.2K and bulk arms like Crismatt/Kim over $9K.
Also – if you read this early enough Corbin Burnes is still listed as the probable starter for Milwaukee but the Brewers have announced it will be Eric Lauer instead so we can ignore Burnes at over $12K for tonight.
Let’s start in Boston tonight where we have two elite K arms in Gerrit Cole and Nathan Eovaldi squaring off in a playoff battle for the Wild Card in Fenway – seriously, what is better? With the Yankees/ Red Sox holding just a 1 game lead on Toronto and a 2 game lead over Seattle for the 2 WC spots, this series is huge and you start it off with two of the best swing and miss arms in baseball the last month.
Nathan Eovaldi ($9.7K) is sporting a 35% K rate the last month with a 13.6% SS rate while Gerrit Cole ($10.8K) has a 36.3% K rate and 16.3% SS rate during that time. I think you can make strong arguments for both of these arms – either one or even both – in what I expect will be a game that both starters work deep into the game.
Sitting right below them is Dylan Cease ($9K) who just continues to be mispriced by DK each and every time out as our man Jared continues to point out. Over the last 30 days, Cease has a massive 41.7% K rate and a 16.5% SS rate which puts him among the best arms in baseball but he continues to stay under $10K. The man went out and struck out 10 batters last game and his price went down $100 – cool, got it.
I think there is a very strong case to be made for a double ace build tonight and let me tell you – I could not be more excited. It has been a while since we got to unleash the ole PnP special but how do you all feel about Double Aces and a Rays Day!
Yeah, I see the Giants with a 7.2 IRT in Coors. I see the Braves above 6 in Arizona where the roof is expected to be open in Chase Field.
So will everyone else.
Then we have the Rays with a 6 IRT of their own in Tampa Bay – just straight chilling as they are likely to welcome back their most dynamic offensive weapon in Wander Franco tonight and this team is set up to be single-digit owned and totally over-looked. Oh, baby!
RHP Edward Cabrera is a talented arm but his struggles against left-handed power have been obvious, as lefties are squaring him up for a .385 ISo and 48% HC rate the last month.
What really stands out to me against the lefties though – is a complete lack of consistency and a game-by-game change in his approach. What that screams to me – he’s trying literally anything – and that sounds like an arm who is not ready for the bigs yet. Look at the game-by-game pitching mix to LHB for Cabrera from Baseball Savant below.
In this 5 start sample size, Cabrera went from using the change-up nearly 50% of the time to throwing it just 4 times in his last start. He went from not throwing the slider at all in his first two starts – to using it 33% of the time last outing. This feels like a pitcher who just does not have a clear plan on the mound yet and when you tack on that his walk rate is 14% – nearly matching his K rate at 17% – this just feels like one of those nights where the Rays absolutely dump runs in bunches on a young arm who just doesn’t have the plan to attack them as we have seen other arms do in recent weeks.
The Rays getting Franco back is a massive boost and this lineup is going to roll out lefties in droves tonight with Brandon Lowe, Ji Man Choi, Austin Meadows, Kevin Kiermeri and Joey Wendle.
Now you may wonder, how are we going double aces and Rays? Well, we can go right back to the Astros free square life again tonight with our usual combo of punt Houston Catcher and insert value Astros OF’s – but against Ghost’s favorite pitcher in baseball, Frankie Montas – it is not nearly the same spot we have been targeting.
While the Cardinals are only playing a 7 inning DH, usually a spot we avoid – it is hard to ignore a team that is almost entirely priced around $2K in Wrigley with the wind blowing out to left-center at 20 MPH. If this was a normal game, the Cardinals would be a chalky stack so could they end up being a low-owned 7 inning difference maker? Even the big bats like Goldy/Arenado are just $3.3K-$3.4K. I am not saying you want to go all-in here but we know we get 7 innings of at-bats in arguably the best hitting spot on the slate and the pricing discounts are simply overdone.
Lastly, you do not have to go far if you want to pair Tampa with the Miami Marlins in a game stack. Not only are the Marlins cheap but they are going to get a match-up with Ryan Yarbrough who is simply lost right now – giving up 18 runs and 23 hits in his last 10 innings of work. The right-handed batters are just pummeling him with hard contact/power right now and this Miami line-up after you get past Rojas/Jazz is just dirt cheap at every single position.
MLB DFS Picks and Pivots – The Wrap-Up
It has been a while since we have gone this route but MLB DFS Picks and Pivots gets to return to a formula that has worked over and over again tonight with double aces and an elite low owned power stack. With so many value mini-stacks due to the size of the slate, this path feels so clear and I have no doubt we can make it work once lineups are released.
Good luck tonight all! Let’s keep that hot streak rolling! Come join the Win Daily Sports Team – grab a Gold Membership and take advantage of all the tools, articles, and expert coaching we can give you to make you a consistent winner in DFS.
Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @2LockSports and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!
