Gary Gustafson 
Welcome to the Friday, June 25th edition of MLB DFS Picks and Pivots where we dive into the top fantasy baseball plays and slate strategy to help you take down tournaments all season long at Win Daily Sports!
If you are new to MLB DFS Picks and Pivots, the goal of this article is not simply to list out the “best plays” but rather to walk through the context of the slate and help you identify the best arms and stacks to build around for MLB DFS tournament play. We will use DraftKings pricing as our anchor and help you get a head start on your winning builds!
Main Slate Breakdown
Welcome in to a 13 game MLB DFS Picks and Pivots slate where at first glance, we have some serious stacks, a few top end arms in play and three games in Detroit, Chicago and St. Louis that have some rain risk we need to navigate through.
When looking at the pitching, while we have Carlos Rodon up top as the clear SP1, I find myself more intrigued by the $8K range on DraftKings when looking at my player pool.
Chris Paddack ($8.8K) is the first arm that stands out as his last two games have seemingly unlocked the ceiling we were waiting to utilize in our MLB DFS lineups.
Through his first 11 starts of the season, Paddack scuffled with just a 22% K rate, 11% SS rate and threw just 63% of his pitches for first pitch strikes. IN his last two starts, behind a 72% first strike rate, he has jumped to a 43.5% K rate and 21% SS rate while also seeing his swing rate outside the zone jump from 30% to 40%.
Paddack has not seen any material changes to his pitch mixes, with a slight uptick in his change-up usage being the only discernible difference but attacking the zone has really been the biggest key and it is getting ahead in counts and then getting swings and misses on his nasty change-up. Additionally, he has also seen his fastball velocity tick up from 94 MPH on average to 95.6 MPH which is helping him get more swing and misses on the fastball which he can then play off his change-up at a 10 MPH drop in velocity.
At this same price point, Mike Minor ($8.7K) gets to take the mound against the K heavy Rangers in Texas and has pitched extremely well with 20+ DK points now in 5 of his last 8 outings.
There are a couple things I really like about Minor here tonight – he is consistently going deep into games with 90-100+ pitches in every single outing and his 27% K rate on the season is quietly elite with his 37% K rate against LHB being the real key to ceiling.
Left-handed pitchers have had recent success against Texas as well, with 5 of the last 10 southpaws to face Texas to put up 20+ DK points including Kershaw, Wood, Kikucki, Dick Mountain and the venerable Austin Gomber.
The other arm in this range I really like is Alex Manoah ($8.1K) as the K pedigree is there and the match-up with the Orioles is great but man, there is some risk here. Manoah faced this Baltimore team last time out, giving up 4 HR and was tossed after throwing at Maikel Franco and is now appealing a suspension.
Listen, the K stuff and ceiling is there – he showed it in his first start, but I do think there is risk the “moment” could play against the rookie tonight and if he is overly amped and let’s last game bleed into tonight, all it takes is one inside pitch and the umpires could have a quick hook. I get the play but it worries me.
Now to the bats – oh the bats!
Let’s see – checks notes, sees a starting pitcher that ranks among the worst in baseball with a HR/9 rate of 1.96, a 42.4% HC rate with a fly ball rate that ranks among the top 25 in baseball and gets to face the Tampa Bay Rays. Good luck Mr. Canning.
I swear guys, I don’t set out to do this but if the Rays face RHP that give up HR and power, I am going to be on them EVERY DAMN DAY especially when we see them sub 5% owned every single night.
You want to go deeper?
Canning relies on his change-up nearly a third of the time against LHB and the Rays, well they feast on that pitch type, with all of Meadows, Lowe, Choi, Wendle and Kiermeir sporting .200+ ISO marks against that pitch type.
This Rays team has a .210+ team ISO and 45% HC rate against RHP with the 6 of the 9 being high fly ball hitters. It’s the same thing I tell you guys every time – there is MASSIVE power for this Rays team when the profile matches up and while they can strike out a TON they are also leaving a ton of batters on base lately – 12 last night, 16 the night before and 27 the night before that.
With all that base running traffic and all that power in the line-up – this team can (and oh by the way – has) the ability to take down a GPP when they can get those big base hits. The base runners have been there, now we just need the HR’s to follow.
Wait – can it be?
Are you saying it is a Rays night AND Jon Lester?
Insert dancing bears GIF here Ghost.
Lester continues to flirt with disaster, with a 5 ERA and xFIP that are a full run over his ERA, and that variance mark between metrics ranks among the highest in baseball this season – say it with me kids – REGRESSION!
Lester is giving up a .210 ISO mark to RHB this season and here come a right-handed heavy Marlins team with some serious pop in the middle of the order as both Starling Marte and Adam Duvall have .250+ ISO marks this year against lefties while Jesus Aguilar has a team-high 42% HC rate against lefties since the start of last season.
The cutter is what is killing Lester when he gets hit – as he has given up a .590 ISO mark on a pitch he throws nearly 30% of the time. Seriously – a third of the time hes throwing a pitch that has traveled an average distance of 310 feet and nearly 50% hard contact.
All of the RHB I mentioned above have at least a 42% HC rate against the cutter and Marte specifically stands out as an elite play with a .375 ISO, 57% HC rate, and average distance of 317 feet. HR Call of the Day right here – it’s a Marte Party!
MLB DFS Picks and Pivots – The Wrap-Up
Strong arms, the Rays stack and Jon Lester on the hill – imagine having a better MLB DFS Picks and Pivots slate? I can’t.
Lock. Load. Profit.
Good luck tonight all! Let’s keep that hot streak rolling! Come join the Win Daily Sports Team – grab a Gold Membership and take advantage of all the tools, articles, and expert coaching we can give you to make you a consistent winner in DFS.
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