Gary Gustafson 
Welcome to the Friday, June 18th edition of MLB DFS Picks and Pivots where we dive into the top fantasy baseball plays and slate strategy to help you take down tournaments all season long at Win Daily Sports!
If you are new to MLB DFS Picks and Pivots, the goal of this article is not simply to list out the “best plays” but rather to walk through the context of the slate and help you identify the best arms and stacks to build around for MLB DFS tournament play. We will use DraftKings pricing as our anchor and help you get a head start on your winning builds!
Main Slate Breakdown
Welcome into a massive 15 game MLB DFS Picks and Pivots slate on Friday Night where, well – get ready to get uncomfortable. The pitching options on this slate are tough to navigate and while the stacks are plentiful, nailing the arms is really what is going to separate us in our tournament builds.
First and foremost – Adam Strangis does a great job of breaking down the pitching in Starting Rotation so I implore you to start there.
Stepping back and looking at the context of this slate, the issue you are largely going to find is that the stacks are plentiful and pricey and so when we have “high-priced” arms that we are not in love with, the question becomes do we force them in for some level of perceived safety?
In cases like this, one thing I like to do is to try and gauge the chalk early on and see if there are pivots at similar price points we can move to at a fraction of the ownership. I think Adam nailed it on the head when he looked at the Robbie Ray/Jose Berrios combination and as the day goes on, it will be interesting to see if this is where the masses land.
Sitting right in this price range, one arm I love is Luis Garcia ($8.9K) who gets a perfect match-up for him against the right-handed heavy White Sox. Garcia has extreme splits when it comes to his strikeout ability with a 32% K rate against RHB versus just a 23% rate this season against lefties and that 10% jump is largely due to his pitch mix against right-handed batters.
This season, Garcia throws a cutter 35% of the time to RHB and a slider another 25% and it is that 60% pitch mix that generates over a 53% whiff rate from opposing hitters and when you see the movement it generates you can understand why.
The White Sox lineup is one all year we have stacked against lefties and avoided against rigthies and the fact that they have 6 of their projected 9 batters hitting from the right side tonight is largely why we would avoid them but even more so why we should be all over Garcia in this spot!
The other spot tonight is where I want to go low to give us some salary savings and this one, I will be honest – I did not expect to land on at first glance but hear me out.
LHP Caleb Smith ($6.5K) is seemingly a forgotten man in Arizona, as his days of bring a front line starter in Miami seem so long ago and honestly, I had kind of glossed over him as an option at all this season and it was only when I dove into tonight’s slate that he caught my eye. I won’t lie – initially, it was because I thought we could stack the Dodgers bats against him but the more I looked, the more I liked Smith.
The reality is, the Dodgers are a top ten strikeout match-up for LHP this season and if you look at this view from Statmuse, you will see how consistent the success has been for lefties against the Dodgers this year.
The Dodgers have faced 20 LHP this season and in that time 12 of them have gone for 16+ DK points, with 3 of them going for 20+ DK points and 11 of the 20 have struck out 6 or more batters in those starts.
There has been an oddly consistent range of outcomes for even mediocre left-handers this season and with Smith working his pitch counts up to 84 and 103 the last two starts after being held under 60 all season, I think this is the spot to take advantage of the price discount and find a cheap arm with a 15-20 DK path tonight.
Going this route gives you significant salary flexibility and on a slate with Coors Field in the fold, that is going to be a key part of many peoples builds but I would argue there are tons of other good spots that present just as high of a ceiling.
My favorite is the Blue Jays against LHP Bruce Zimmerman, a lefty who is giving up a .200+ ISO mark and 46% hard contact seems like a match-up nightmare for the Jays right-handed heavy HR squad. 1-5 in this Toronto line-up with Semien, Bo, Vladdy, Grichuk and Gurriel seems like the perfect pivot off Coors and the fact they are in Camden Yards and get 9 innings of guaranteed at-bats is ideal for stacking.
The other team I love tonight is the Cleveland Indians against RHP Chad Kuhl, who has surrendered a .264 ISO and 49% HC rate to LHB this season. Kuhl relies heavily on his sinker to lefties and considering he has surrendered a .538 ISO mark and 57% HC rate, maybe he should try something new.
The Indians lefties – hit this sinker extremely well – with all of Jose Ramirez, Eddie Rosario, Bobby Bradley and Josh Naylor sporting .200+ ISO marks and 40-50% HC rates. The other key offering is the slider, which he throws 40% of the time and while JRam is the target, here again, do not overlook Cesar Hernandez ($4.8K) as a pivot at 2B as he has a .289 ISO and 48% HC rate against that pitch type.
MLB DFS Picks and Pivots – The Wrap-Up
Stepping back and looking at this MLB DFS Picks and Pivots slate for Friday, I think the one thing we know is that we are going to love our bats and feel super uneasy about our arms.
With that context, understand we are all in the same boat when it comes to sorting through the mess of arms so do not be afraid to take risks on slates like this where the pitching is murky but I would also say the flipside is true – do not get cute with offenses, the bats are going to go off tonight and there are simply too many good spots to target, so make sure you have offenses at the core of your build that can match the big boys.
Good luck tonight all! Let’s keep that hot streak rolling! Come join the Win Daily Sports Team – grab a Gold Membership and take advantage of all the tools, articles, and expert coaching we can give you to make you a consistent winner in DFS.
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