Jared Levitt 
Welcome to the Friday edition of Picks and Pivots. Tonight we have a 14 game day slate of MLB DFS on Draftkings to navigate through.
Main Slate Breakdown
It’s Jared and I’ll be filling in for Brian while he takes a much needed and well deserved vacation.
It’s Friday and that means we’re back to having a loaded slate. With tonight’s slate we have a handful of pitchers that I’m looking to work in. It all starts with Robbie Ray ($9.2k). We’re getting Ray at the cheapest he’s been in a couple of months.
He’s seen a little bit of a downward trend of late as he has just a 24% K rate over the past month. That’s down significantly from his 30% yearly rate. If we look into what happened it’s mostly due to match ups. Three of his last 3 outings have been against the Red Sox and they are a top team against lefties. Tonight Ray gets a much softer match up in the Mariners and he should get back on track. Ray will more than likely be my SP1 tonight.
The next two pitchers I’m considering are Shane McClanahan ($7.8k) vs. Minnesota and Anthony DeSclafani ($9k) vs. Colorado. Both guys get soft match ups tonight. DeSclafani gets the softer match up as he gets the Rockies outside of Coors.
The Rockies are a very different team away from Coors and were man handled by Logan Webb last night. DeSclafani’s top pitch is his slider and it’s not a pitch that the Rockies handle. Only Blackmon has a whiff rate less than 30% to the pitch. This is the type of match up that gives DeSclafani a ton of upside.
If we switch gears to McClanahan he’s someone that gives us two things over Disco. A $1.2k savings (we can really use that tonight with some of the bats) and he has a higher strike out ability. Over the past month McClanahan has a 28% K rate and gets to take on a team that has been striking out quite a bit recently.
The Twins have struck out more than 28% of the time over the past week and this match up isn’t great for them.. Similar to DeSclafani, McClanahan will use his slider a ton. Twins as a team do not handle sliders well and it should give McClanahan some upside.
The first place I’m going to look to for offense tonight will be the Cleveland Indians. They get to take on the worst pitcher on the slate, Mr. Tyler Alexander. Over the last month Alexander has been getting shelled. Batters have a 45% hard hit rate and almost 57% fly ball rate. Add in the fact that he also has just a 5.5% swinging strike rate, he’s someone we need to attack.
The box score looked pretty good for Alexander last time out against the Indians. Looks can be deceiving though. He still gave up a couple of barrels, had a 40% hard hit rate against him, and had a 100% LOB. Lightning won’t strike twice tonight.
Alexander’s biggest struggles come against righties as he’s given up a .354 wOBA against them this season and both his fly ball rate and hard hit rate balloon to the upper 40%’s. I’m not going all in on the Indians but I want to pluck a few of the really cheap right handed bats here as they’ll help to set up my primary stack. Myles Straw ($2.6k), Oscar Mercado ($2.3k), and Owen Miller ($2.5k) are all incredibly cheap and will have the platoon advantage tonight.
My priority stack tonight will be the Milwaukee Brewers vs. Mitch Keller. Brewers will be popular tonight as they are red hot. That said, it’s a large slate and we normally see ownership a little more spread out. Keller has been getting shelled this year by both sides of the plate so I’m not overly concerned with platoon splits here.
Digging in to pitch data, Keller is going to throw his fastball almost 60% of the time tonight. It’s been getting drilled this season. Hitters have a 48% hard hit rate and near .500 slugging % against it. We’ll need to keep an eye on the Brewers lineup tonight as some of the guys are pretty beat up.
If they are all healthy, I’m going to prioritize Garcia ($4.5k), Adames ($5.5k), Escobar ($5.9k), and Narvaez ($4.5k). All four of these guys have slugging %’s greater than .500 against fastballs this year and are set up for solid nights.
If for some reason weather impacts this game or we want to pivot away from a chalky Brewers lineup, I’ll more than likely to move to the Tampa Bay Rays vs. Michael Pineda. Pineda is someone that we’ll want to attack with lefties as his splits are pretty clear. He’s giving up a .243 ISO to lefties this year. If we go Rays, I’ll look to prioritize Lowe ($4.6k), Choi ($3.7k), and Win Daily’s favorite hitter Austin Meadows ($4.5k). All three have the platoon advantage and set up well from a pitch mix stand point.
MLB DFS Picks and Pivots – The Wrap-Up
Tonight we have some solid pitchers on the mound and we finally have a pool of more than 1 to select from. Depending on how ownership shakes out through the day, I’ll be selecting from a pool of Ray, McClanahan, and DeSclafani. My core batters will come from the Brew Crew, Rays, and Indians.
Good luck and hope to see you in the green!
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