Matt Vecchio 
Welcome to the Friday edition of MLB DFS Picks and Pivots where we dive into the top fantasy baseball plays and slate strategy to help you take down tournaments all season long at Win Daily Sports!
If you are new to MLB DFS Picks and Pivots, the goal of this article is not simply to list out the “best plays” but rather walk through the context of the slate and help you identify the best arms and stacks to build around for MLB DFS tournament play. We will use DraftKings pricing as our anchor and help you get a head start on your winning builds!
MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Main Slate Breakdown
Happy Friday my MLB DFS friends and family and welcome to the final day of April and what looks to be a beast 14 game slate in the majors to start off our weekend!
There are a few over arching core principles for me as I dig through this slate initially and try and parse down my player pool to a core we can really anchor to.
First and foremost – we have elite K arms on this slate and I would argue, it is a do not get cute kind of night. Up top, we have Shane Bieber and Gerrit Cole both over $10K and with them both sporting 40% + K rates on the season, it seems like getting at least one of these arms in your MLB DFS picks tonight is a necessary route.
The other arm that stands out is Andrew Heaney ($6.8K) who is just wildly misaligned with his pricing tonight. On DraftKings, only 5 pitchers are priced below Heaney but on FanDuel, only 5 pitchers are priced above him! As Adam Strangis broke down in his Starting Rotation today – this is setting up as an elite spot for him and the pricing on DK is something that I think we are going to need to enforce.
I bring this up because an MLB DFS build at pitcher on DK that goes high/low with either Bieber/Cole and then pairs them with Heaney as a high upside SP2 is going to allow you a path to a second core principle on this slate – the New York Yankees bats.
The sample size is not overly large but LHP Tarik Skubal has some wildly concerning metrics to right-handed batters – a .352 ISO and a 71.7% fly-ball rate which when you layer that with the fact we have 30 MPH winds blowing straight out in Yankee Stadium with gusts of (*checks notes) – up to 60 MPH – goodness, this seems like a recipe for disaster.
Skubal has struggled in his career with HR’s to opposing RHB, giving up 3.3 HR/9 to right-handed hitters and now he gets the Yankees right-handed heavy line-up in Yankee Stadium in a freakin’ wind tunnel – good luck kid.
This is where that Heaney SP2 call from Adam is massive – because we can easily afford the big Yankee bats like Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, and Gleyber Torres while still getting one of the top-tier ace arms. The Yankee bats will be chalky, they always are when they have a huge IRT as they do tonight, but this is a spot where the stack could absolutely carry you to a GPP win with an HR barrage.
Today Is The Greatest Day…
OK – we need a separate section here today in Picks and Pivots, a safe place to share thoughts and be able to talk about our greatest fears and our loftiest aspirations.
The last year has been hard on us all, and while sports coming back and the world opening up more day by day is making me feel better, there has been something missing that I am used to. What could that be you ask?
The easy answer is pants – I mean, who wears pants anymore with everything conducted on Zoom right? Well, today if it unfolds as I hope, I am going to be “pantsless-ier” – yes that is an adver-noun to describe the increased absence of pants. Look it up in the Webster’s – it is there.
Guys – there is the potential that today, April 30th, 2021 could be the very first JON LESTER DAY of the season.
Strike up the band, cue the giant cake, and drop the confetti – well, maybe.
Because here is the thing – 2020-2021 continues to give just enough before kicking us in the ole groinal region. There is the potential Jon Lester could make his Nationals debut tonight against the Miami Marlins but the Nationals are waiting to make the official call in what I can only assume is a direct decision aimed at limiting my happiness and destroying my well-being.
If you are new to Picks and Pivots, well, then you are likely super confused why I am so excited for this day but if you have been around PnP before, you know me and ole Lester have a complicated past.
Lester by all accounts for the past few seasons has been the poster child for an arm who’s advanced metrics tell you he should be getting lit up but his 2-3 ERA season after season would laugh in the face of xFIP and SIERA marks that pointed to a pitcher that should have more of a high 4 and low 5 ERA.
Lester does not generate a ton of soft contact or miss bats and for MLB DFS, that is exactly what we want to target with opposing bats and so if Lester is confirmed in today- this Marlins stack is going to be a spot I go to alongside the bit time Yankee bats.
First into my line-ups would be the red-hot Jesus Aguilar and right behind him would be Adam Duvall who has a team-leading .343 ISO mark against LHP since the start of last season. Since the start of 2020 – Lester has given up a .220 ISO mark, 42% hard contact rate and has just a 16% K rate against RHB – so attacking the RHB in the Miami line-up is ideal.
You can easily expand a stack with Miguel Rojas/Jon Berti types who are high walk/low K on base machines who give you the opportunity to get guys on base in front of the big boppers in the hope a stack puts up a big time crooked number.
Now it is 6 AM EST as I write this so maybe the Nationals change their mind, but I am putting this out into the universe and hoping my Friday Night aligns with a Lester Night. Come on 2021 – throw us a bone.
MLB DFS Picks and Pivots – The Wrap Up
We have a monster 14 game slate tonight with elite K aces, high upside stacks and the potential for a Picks and Pivots special with the return of an old friend. We attack with vengeance, we empty our bankrolls, we laugh at variance and embrace regression and by Saturday morning, we will awake the wealthiest of kings!
*Disclaimer – stacking against Jon Lester only works roughly 10% of the time. For your reference, the deposit button is in the upper right-hand corner of your DFS application. Figured I would give you a heads up for Saturday Morning.
Enjoy this one guys – see you in Discord today for all the fun and games!
Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @2LockSports and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!
