Joel Bartilotta 
Welcome to the Saturday edition of Picks and Pivots. Today we have a 6 game afternoon slate and a 9 game main slate of MLB DFS on DraftKings to navigate through.
Hey all, it’s Jared and I’ll be filling in for Brian the next couple of days. My goal today will be to walk you through my thought on process on tonight’s slate and find the best path to victory.
Let’s dig in to today’s slates!
Afternoon Slate Breakdown
Today’s afternoon slate leaves us without any real aces. The most expensive pitcher is Montas at $9.3k and I just don’t want to use any pitcher against the Yankees right now.
My pool of pitchers on the afternoon slate will consist ofAlex Manoah ($8.7k) vs. Detroit Tigers, Vladimir Gutierrez ($8.5k) vs. Miami Marlins, and Sandy Alcantara ($7.7k) vs. Cincinnati Reds. My lean right now is to go with Gutierrez and Alcantara.
Both guys are rolling and get soft match ups. The Marlins aren’t hitting for much power and striking out nearly 25% of the time against righties over the past month. It sets up for Gutierrez to continue his string of solid outings.
On the other side of this game we have Alcantara who’s also rolling right along with 3 consecutive gems. The Reds have a lot of power to the lineup but they also strike out a ton. Over the past week they’ve struck out more than 31% of the time. Look for a pitcher’s duel here.
The first place I’m going to look to for offense on the afternoon slate will be Oakland with theAthletics vs. Nestor Cortes. Cortes has not been good over the last month with a 5.35 xFIP. My main focus here is going to be the A’s righties.
Righties have a 52% fly ball rate against Cortes over the last 30 days and I’ll want to exploit that. My building block here will be Chapman ($4.9k) who has been crushing lefties of late with .429 ISO over the last month. If Yan Gomes ($3.8k) cracks the lineup he’s set up well for a great too as he’s had a lot of success against lefties over the course of his career.
I say this time and time again, don’t leave off the lefty bats in match ups like this. Olson ($5.4k) is really solid vs. lefties and we could potentially get him under owned.
One of my favorite targets for offense returns tonight with Jose Urena coming off the DL. He is a career GB pitcher who has forgotten how to throw ground balls. The two Blue Jays I’m most interested in are Gurriel ($4k) and Semien ($4.9k).
Both guys have been doing well against righties in August with ISO’s over .240 for both of them. Yes, the Blue Jays are struggling right now. Urena is the perfect pitcher to break them out of their slumps.
I’ll also make sure to sprinkle in some Royals against Anderson. Perez ($5.9k) is expensive but he’s extremely hot right now. We paid down for pitchers so we have some room for salary. No Royals stack against lefties would be complete without Merrifield ($5.2k).
Main Slate
Pitching tonight has to start with Lance Lynn ($9.6k) vs. Chicago Cubs. His price tonight is way too low for the match up. He’s facing a team that’s striking out more than 30% of the time over the last week.
Pitchers against the Cubs have been a thing since the trade deadline. Lynn will be chalky tonight but with his price and match up I just don’t think fading this chalk will be worth it.
The guy I plan on pairing with Lynn isn’t a sexy pick, but it’s a pick that’s been pretty consistent. Stroman ($8.9k) has been the lone reliable arm for the Mets all season.
Over the past month he’s really taken it up a notch with a 27.8% K rate and a 3.56 xFIP. The Nats have been playing better ball of late but they struck out 17 times last night. They’re coming back down to earth and with Stroman on the hill tonight that descent will continue.
The only other guy tonight I’d consider is Wainwright ($9.2k). He has shown some serious upside over the last month with multiple games over 38 DK points, with one of those against this same Pirates team. Pairing either Wainwright or Stroman with Lynn tonight will be the way my lineup will work tonight.
While the Rays for the most disappointed last night, Brian would absolutely have me go right back to the well tonight. W/ John Means on the mound we have another great opportunity for offense.
Means has been a different pitcher since he came back from injury. His biggest obstacle has been the long ball. Since coming off the IL he’s given up 10 in just 7 starts. We want to attack Means with Rays righties as they rightes have a .326 ISO against him over the past month.
There are 3 guys here I’m laser focused on. It starts with Zunino ($4.6k) who has been absolutely crushing lefties over the last month. He has an insane .722 is over that period.
Arozarena ($4.2k) and Cruz ($5k) are my other targets here. Both guys are also great against lefties with their respective .500 and .389 wOBAs over the last month.
For the rest of my lineup, I’m going w/ a full game stack of the Bal/TB game. Patino has really struggled over the past month. He has a 5.94 xFIP and has given up 5 bombs in the last 26 innings.
We want to attack Patino w/ lefties as his fly ball rate sky rockets to 54%. They also have a .286 ISO against him in the last month. The Orioles have some cheap lefties that are going to enable us to play the expensive Rays.
Stewart ($2.1k) and Santander ($3.2k) are both extremely cheap and have been extremely productive vs. righties. Over the last 30 days Santander has a .396 ISO and Stewart has a .429 ISO. It’s still going to be hot and humid in Baltimore and I’d expect a high scoring game tonight.
MLB DFS Picks and Pivots – The Wrap-Up
Pitching on both slates seem pretty straight forward with a Gutierrez/Alcantara pairing in the afternoon and then Lynn and a Stroman/Wainwright pairing. With bats I’m going to anchor my early stack w/ the A’s and then the late night hammer w/ the Rays.
Good luck and hope to see you in the green!
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