Jared Levitt 
Welcome to round 2 of the 2021 MLB season. I’m Jared and I’ll be filling in for Brian today. Some pretty big shoes to fill! My goal today will be to provide you with enough information to make solid choices. I won’t necessarily provide you the most popular plays, but the plays that will hopefully differentiate your lineups from the rest of the field and provide you enough success to get a solid ROI. Let’s breakdown some MLB DFS!
MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Slate Breakdown
We have an unusually small slate for a Friday with only 6 games on the main slate. This is what happens when Opening Day is on a Thursday. There’s an earlier matchup between the Red Sox and O’s but the focus of my write-up will be the Main Slate on Draftkings. Tonight we have 2 aces making their debuts with their new teams; Trevor Bauer ($10.5k) and Blake Snell ($9.7k). We have the Dodgers playing in Coors against a pitcher that struggled mightily in 2020, with an implied total (7.3) to show for it. We have Wilmer Flores ($3.7k) against a lefty. And finally, we have a game between 2 teams that combined for 1 run yesterday
Now that we have that out of the way, let’s dig in to today’s slate.
MLB DFS Picks – Pitchers
Today we have 2 aces going in Bauer and Snell, both making their debuts for their new teams. I have a hard time paying $10.5k for Bauer today with him pitching in Coors Field. As a petty Mets fan, I hope he gets shelled today.
My SP1 today will be Snell. You’re getting an $800 savings from Bauer and he’s also pitching in a much more pitcher-friendly environment. Although you wouldn’t know it if you looked at the box score from beautiful San Diego yesterday. In a Covid shortened season last year, Snell k’d more than 11 per 9 and had a 15% swinging-strike rate. One of the things I love about Snell is his ability to get batters to chase pitches out of the zone. Last season he had a chase rate of over 35%. Although Arizona managed to knock out Darvish early yesterday, I think they’ll be over-matched today against Snell. I’m locking him in as my SP1.
Where we see more options today is with your SP2. My first lean will be Pablo Lopez ($7k). The Rays are at an automatic disadvantage as they lose the DH. The Rays will probably trot out 4 lefties, but 3 of the 4 have K rates over 20% against righties. Lopez last season k’d more than 9 per 9. Last season he was also able to limit hard contact with a hard hit rate of less than 29%. Finally, he had a ground ball rate of 28.6% which will certainly help limit any damage the Rays can do.
My other lean for SP2 tonight is Jesus Luzardo ($7.9k). The Astros are a tough lineup so this will be no easy task, but Luzardo is one of the more talented pitchers going tonight and Houston losing Springer helps as well. Last night’s game was much closer than the final score shows. The A’s bullpen gave up a ton of late-inning damage. In his young career, Luzardo has been able to k both righties and lefties at a rate of greater than 24%. Like Lopez, Luzardo has the ability to keep the ball on the ground, with a 45% ground ball rate in 2020.
My locks today will be Snell and Lopez.
MLB DFS Picks – Top Stacks
Let’s get the obvious out of the way. The Dodgers will be a popular place to go tonight. They’re facing off against Antonio Senzatela who was just not very good last year. He pitched to a 4.81 xFIP, gave up a ton of hard contact (35.4%), and didn’t miss many bats (8.1% swinging strike %). The stars are aligned for the Dodgers to put up a very crooked number.
My favorite stack tonight is the White Sox. They’re facing off against Andrew Heaney who pitched to a 4.15 xFIP last year. Heaney also gave up a ton of hard contact with a hard-hit rate of nearly 37%. I’m going to focus on 1-3. Tim Anderson ($5.5k), Luis Robert ($5.3k), and Jose Abreu ($5.8k). It’s an expensive stack, but a very high ceiling stack. Anderson has a .388 wOBA against lefties and Abreu has a .404. The White Sox has an implied total of only 4.09. I think they crush that number today.
My final recommendation of the day is the Mariners. With this lineup, I may choose to just pluck a few random batters as they are dirt cheap. They’re facing off against Johnny Cueto who is about 5 years past his prime. Cueto struggled last year. He pitched to a 4.78 xFIP. He barely misses any bats anymore as seen by his 8.3% swinging strike last year. Seattle has some cheap bats in the meat of their lineup that will help you pay for some Dodger or White Sox bats. One bat I’ll be focused on here is Mitch Haniger ($3.1k) leading off. He’s returning from a pretty nasty testicle injury in 2019. Evan White ($2.7k) is another bat I’ll be focused on if you choose to skip over Abreu. He’s close to min priced and should be batting clean up.
MLB DFS Picks and Pivots – The Wrap Up
Tonight’s slate, although small, has the makings of a fun slate. A powerful lineup in Coors, 2 aces making their debuts for their new teams, Wilmer Flores against a lefty. You will also have the opportunity to use 1 ace and 1 SP2, or 2 SP2’s. I’ll be using Snellzilla and Lopez!
Weather does not look to be a concern anywhere tonight.
Enjoy this slate – let’s get in our FREE Discord today and chat it up while we dig through our cheat sheets and custom projections here at Win Daily to set up the start of this MLB DFS season with some big wins!
Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @rangerzfan79 and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!
