MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: 9.20

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: 9.20

Welcome back MLB DFS fans! I’m Adam Strangis and I’m covering Picks and Pivots: 9.20 today. We’ll be mixing in some Starting Rotation with Picks and Pivots for today! Tonight, we have another solid slate on DraftKings with big prizes pools to take down so let’s get started with our top MLB DFS picks for today’s slate!

For those of you new to Picks and Pivots, the goal of this MLB DFS article each and every day is to provide you a “First Look” overview of the slate where we use DraftKings pricing as a baseline to help us get started. Rather than simply write out the “top plays,” this article will focus on slate strategy and roster construction with a GPP mindset to help you get started on your initial builds. Without further ado, let’s dive into today’s slate!

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Starting Pitchers

Pitching is…not the best today. We have 16 to choose from and I think there’s five starters that I can build a case for.

1. Max Scherzer – He’s really not been the Mad Max we know and love, as I’ve been saying all year. The K rate is mostly there but almost everything else is elevated. ERA, walk rate, WHIP, HR/9, fly ball rate.. everything is a little worse than 2019. Having said that, the Marlins still boast the fifth-highest K rate to RHP on the slate. You likely almost have to play him in cash just to match.
2. Carlos Carrasco – Another pitcher that’s been tough to get a full handle on. He’s a righty facing the Tigers, so we know the drill. He’s just super pricey with Max right there and really only a GPP target. The Tigers put up four runs in 3.1 IP the first time they tangled.
3. Matt Boyd – We caught the Good Matt Boyd last time and he could do it again, but the matchup is a mixed bag. Cleveland does not strike out against LHP at just 20.4%. However, they are bottom five in wRC+, wOBA, ISO and OPS. Boyd has a 24.1% K rate but his numbers are wildly against what we normally target for most of the time. He’s either going negative points or over 20.
4. Deivi Garcia – We can continue to ride the lightning with this young righty. He’s really given the Yankee rotation a shot in the Armand they needed it. Through 24.2 IP, the K rate is a solid 24.2% and the walks are just 4%. That was an issue through the minors so it’s impressive to see. The swinging strike rate is 11.9% and the Sox are a top 10 K matchup. Young pitchers like this need to build a track record to be called safe, but the upside is plenty tangible.
5. Jose Urquidy – Some certain writer in this space was on Urquidy the last time and was rewarded with 30 DK points. That might be a touch high, but Brian was dead on the money when he said Urquidy has strikeout ability. He’s always been far better to LHH which should serve him well against the D-Backs.

Cash Choices – Max, Urquidy, Garcia

GPP Choices – Carrasco, Boyd

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Bats and Stacks

One team I want a a part of is the Houston Astros, but it’s a concentrated stack. They have four players who clear at least a .335 wOBA and .210 Iso this year against LHP. It’s Yuli Gurriel, Alex Bregman, George Springer and Martin Maldonado. The D-Backs signed Madison Bumgarner to a disaster contract by the early returns. Righties are teeing off on him with a .458 wOBA, .324 average and a 4.18 HR/9. Yes, please.

A stack that fits really nicely is the Tampa Bay Rays. They also draw a lefty in John Means, who is nothing like what we saw from him last season. RHH are ruining his life as well, with a 2.96 HR/9 and a 7.06 FIP to that side of the plate. Hitters like Mike Brosseau, Willy Adames and Randy Arozarena fit in wonderfully with the Astros. All three of these hitters have a wOBA over .390 and an ISO over .220.

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Wrap up

With bad pitching, there is plenty of offense to choose from in MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: 9.20. Since I’m not entirely sold on Scherzer, I kind of like going the Garcia/Urquidy route in GPP and loading up on whatever bats you can from your favorite offense!

Stick around in Discord today and let’s talk some baseball!

Let’s get it tonight my friends!

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