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We’ve been on an absolute hot run in MLB DFS at Win Daily Sports (cheat sheets, projection models, and all of the write-ups)! Let’s run it back today. The August 17th edition of Aces and Bases will take on the main MLB DFS 11 game slate on DraftKings and FanDuel.
The purpose of this article is to identify our top pitching plays and fades on the slate, in addition to our top offense stacks for your GPP lineups.
Please make sure you keep an eye on the weather and other factors as those are always important things to monitor when playing MLB DFS. Be sure to check out our MLB DFS Projections as well. Without further ado, it’s Aces and Bases time.
MLB DFS: The Aces
Best Value: Zach Davies ($8,200 DK / $7,800 FD)
It’s not sexy at all, but Davies is probably one of the only “value” pitchers on my board that isn’t a complete “punt”. Davies is not missing a whole lot of bats this season but what he is doing is keeping the baseball in the park (0.099 ISO) and getting deep enough in every start to qualify for the win.
Davies gets a comfortable opponent with the Texas Rangers who own a 25% strikeout rate against right handers, an incredibly low walk rate, and an average ISO. If the roof is closed in Texas tonight, there’s no reason to fade Zach Davies outside of a limited K-rate. This ballpark ranks 26th in ballpark factor (a complete opposite of the Rangers’ previous home ballpark). Davies should go deep into this game, limit the damage, and have a good chance at the WIN bonus on both DFS sites as a -145 road favorite
Honorable Mentions: Griffin Canning & Ross Stripling
Top Ace(s): Hyun Jin Ryu ($9,400 DK / $9,300 FD)
Ryu is without a doubt the top ace on the board tonight. My only concern is Baltimore is kind of getting hot at the plate recently and this ballpark in Baltimore is a launching pad. Luckily, Ryu has a very low ISO and should limit the damage and go deep into this ballgame as the Orioles basically refuse to take walks and drive up opposing pitch counts.
Ryu is also coming off of his two best starts of the season and seems locked in as he’s generating a 15% whiff-rate. Ryu is going to be insanely chalky tonight, so I don’t mind if you pivot away from him in GPP tournaments tonight, but he needs to be the main focus in the pitching department of your cash game lineups.
Honorable Mention: Zac Gallen
Punt Play: Alex Cobb ($7,300 DK / $6,500 FD)
After the last couple MLB DFS seasons of stacking against Alex Cobb, it blows my mind that I’m interested in rostering him tonight… but here we are.
Low-key, Cobb has been lights out this season (in terms of Alex Cobb). He’s yet to give up more than 4 hits and 2 earned runs in a start and is supporting a respectable ~12% whiff-rate. What should help him tonight is Toronto’s putrid 26.1% K-rate against opposing right-handers.
Again, this ballgame is in an extremely hitters-friendly ballpark and the Blue Jays have shown the ability to hit the long ball (.186 ISO against righties), so by no means is Cobb a safe play. He’s going to come in with sub-10% ownership tonight, so I think he makes for a sneaky GPP play, but that’s about it.
Honorable Mentions: Gio Gonzalez (gross)
Top Fade: Brandon Bielak ($7,400 DK / ($6,300 FD)
Bielak is seeing some crazy high ownership tonight (on DraftKings) and I’m not quite sure why. Colorado doesn’t strike out as often as they do in years past and have a very respectable .174 ISO against opposing right-handers. Sure, the Astros could get to Freeland early and give Bielak a comfortable lead, but he’s yet to go past 5 innings of work and I don’t see that happening tonight.
By no means is Bielak a bad play as he’s been generating a lot of swings and misses and he’s a home favorite. I’m just not sold on his upside when 25% or more of the field is going to roster him on DraftKings tonight.
MLB DFS: The Bases
Tonight seems like a great night to pay up for your bats. We all know the importance of stacking when play MLB DFS GPPs, so here are my top stacks for the Thursday’s Main Slate.
Top Stacks
- Los Angeles Dodgers – Justin Dunn is bad. The Dodgers’ bats are hot. With an implied team total at 6.3 runs, the Dodgers seem like an absolute smash play tonight. Dunn has done a solid job limiting the damage in his first 3 starts of the season. Tonight, that changes.
Dunn is extremely prone to walking batters. The Dodgers love to take walks and then punish you with a .203 ISO against righties. Once the Dodgers chase Dunn out of this game it may only get better for their offense as the Mariners’ bullpen holds a brutal 5.76 xFIP. Yikes. - New York Mets – It’s Mets’ Monday! Jordan Yamamoto is by far the worst graded pitcher on my model for tonight’s slate. He has an extremely high fly-ball/line-drive rate, crazy high average exit velocity, and a slate-leading barrel rate (that’s a bad thing).
The Phillies did a nice job in the past weekend series with quieting the Mets’ hot bats, but Luis Rojas’ boys should put on a show tonight against Yamamoto and this Marlins’ bullpen. Dominic Smith is on fire and should continue to smash the baseball tonight along with all of these Mets’ power hitters. - Los Angeles Angels – Tyler Anderson is the starting pitcher for the Giants… Stack the Angels. The Giants’ bullpen is arguably the worst in the MLB (5.78 xFIP)… Stack the Angels.
Value Stacks
- Chicago White Sox – Boyd grades out as the third worst pitcher on my model. But, he does have the ability to generate a lot of strikeouts. If he’s not missing bats early, the White Sox should put up a crooked number against Boyd and this struggling, overused Tigers’ bullpen.
- Atlanta Braves – Not a big fan of the Braves’ lineup without Ronald Acuna Jr. but Anibal Sanchez has been absolutely brutal this season. If there was any game to get right, it would be tonight against a banged-up Braves’ offense, but I just don’t see that happening with how bad Anibal has looked.
The Braves have a 5.57 implied total and that is enough for me to be interested in a stack against Anibal Sanchez and a bad Washington bullpen.
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