jason mezrahi 
Welcome to the Saturday edition of the Stack City, where I’ll be going through the top MLB DFS Stacks on DraftKings and Fanduel.
There are 16 MLB games today, including the STL-CHC doubleheader, and the slates are generally split up between a nine-game main slate at 4:05 PM EST and a four-game slate that begins at 7:15 PM EST (identical setup for both sites). There are some weather concerns that could impact one of the more important games (HOU-KC) on the 4:05 slate, but that’s probably a situation which could be resolved by moving the game a few hours into the evening. So it should play.
We should once again peruse Adam’s Starting Rotation article as our first order of business to help decide on arms, for the early and main slates.
Now it’s time to get to the stacks and build that bankroll!
MLB DFS Hitter Stacks – 4:05 Main Slate
Game Stack: Washington Nationals vs. Cincinnati Reds
These teams combined for 13 runs yesterday, and the Nationals won on the coattails of Lane Thomas and his triple-dong performance. Today’s tilt could see similar fireworks, with two perennial gas cans (Erick Fedde and Tyler Mahle) on the bump.
While he shouldn’t expect another 3-HR game from Thomas, who started the season as a platoon outfielder but has played himself into an everyday role lately, we can safely look to Josh Bell, Juan Soto, Nelson Cruz and Keibert Ruiz for some offensive production. Of course, we’ll need to play attention as lineup lock approaches since we could see someone sit and Yadiel Hernandez play.
For the Reds, we should get plenty of exposure to the projected 1-4 hitters (Nick Senzel, Brandon Drury, Tommy Pham and Joey Votto) as well as some shares of punt options Albert Almora (.352 career wOBA vs. RHP) and Mike Moustakas, who is 3-for-3 in his career vs. Fedde with a BB and a HR.
Texas Rangers vs. Marco Gonzales
The Rangers aren’t a very exciting team to stack, because they are in the middle of the bottom half of MLB teams in terms of offensive production, but over the past week, they’re third in the league in wRC+ (139) behind just the Yankees (164) and Blue Jays (159). They’re also decent against LHP, in part because their left-handed batters (I’m looking at you, Corey Seager and Kole Calhoun) are still pretty good against southpaws, sporting a .380 and .326 wOBA, respectively.
If we skip over Marcus Semien, who’s still $5K despite a horrid start to 2022, we can get a few more solid bats under that $5K threshold who are in good spots, including Mitch Garver, catcher Sam Huff ($2,800) and Eli White ($2,100). Keep an eye on the lineup the Rangers roll out, because Josh Smith is dealing with shoulder soreness and that could mean opportunities for additional punt plays Andy Ibanez and Charlie Culberson.
GAME STACK #2 ALERT: I’d also consider a Seattle two-man runback here with Ty France and Julio Rodriguez, especially since Glenn Otto has struggled with right-handed hitters (.370 wOBA) this season.
Houston Astros vs. Kris Bubic
Bubic gets beaten up by both righties and lefties, so there’s really nobody who’s off the table for stack exposure for Houston today. My favorite plays include Jose Altuve, Yordan Alvarez, Alex Bregman (in a get-right spot) and Jeremy Pena, but I’ll have shares of Michael Brantley, Chas McCormick, Kyle Tucker and Martin Maldonado, who homered last night.
The Astros have not faced Bubic yet in his young career (35 starts over three seasons) but the kid is sporting a 12.83/9.00 ERA/FIP combo this season and this is a punishing lineup full of professional, patient hitters who could easily light him up for 5-6 runs in the first couple of innings. When a pitcher has a BB/9 rate (7.43) higher than his K/9 rate (6.75), that’s a problem even if it’s across five starts and one relief appearance in 2022.
Update: Jose Siri is also in play with McCormick on the bench.
Risk Alert: Cleveland Guardians vs. Tyler Wells
I’m not going to challenge anyone who sees an opportunity with stacking up Cleveland here, but a few things concern me about going too heavy on Guardians versus Wells and his profile. I’m certainly not saying that Wells is a good options against a potent lineup like this, especially with his 5.77 K/9 and smoke-and-mirrors success thus far this season.
But Wells especially tough on lefties (.224 wOBA against 154 batters this season), and with some of the biggest bats in the lineup coming from the left side today (Jose Ramirez and Josh Naylor to name a couple), and righty hitters dealing with the park’s new dimensions, he might frustrate this bunch just enough to keep them from making a major mark in DFS. In a GPP or two, they could be worth a look, but I have a feeling they might be a little more popular than they should be and there are a couple other spots I like better given the lofty prices on the mashers in Cleveland.
MLB DFS Main Slate Summary
If you’d really like to narrow your player pool today, I’d have no problem sticking to the Astros bats with pieces of the two games I highlighted above. It’s a day with plenty of solid pitching options and we could definitely see some lower-scoring games in venues and games (SD-MIL, SF-MIA) where we’d traditionally see more offense.
MLB DFS Hitters Slate Summary – 7:15 Slate
After an offensive dud in Coors Field last night behind two excellent pitching performances from Max Fried and (to a lesser degree) Chad Kuhl, we cab safely target a Mile High Mashing Melee with the Braves and Rockies. I’ll be favoring Atlanta and the core of Ronald Acuna, Dansby Swanson, Austin Riley and a bat or two (it’s always tough to say who gets the starting nod, really) among William Contreras, Travis d’Arnaud and the switch-hitting Ozzie Albies. There’s also a bunch of OF options in Marcell Ozuna, Michael Harris II and Guillermo Heredia, and frankly I’m a little sick of all the talent they have in that organization.
On the Rockies side, we should look to Connor Joe, Charlie Blackmon, C.J. Cron and Yonathan Daza, with some exposure to Ryan McMahon and the red-hot Brendan Rogers (3 HR and a .454 wOBA in the last week).
Aside from that game, the always dangerous Dodgers and recently awoken Phillies are also in excellent spots. Philly put up 10 runs last night after the firing of Joe Girardi and the Dodgers scored six runs against the Mets; they scored just two runs in their first game against NYM after being swept by the Pirates.
PHI $$$$ options: Kyle Schwarber, Bryce Harper, Rhys Hoskins, Nick Castellanos
Value: Bryson Stott, Nick Maton, Mickey Moniak
LAD $$$$ options: Mookie Betts, Trea Turner, Freddie Freeman, Will Smith, Chris Taylor
Value: Cody Bellinger, Hanser Alberto, Austin Barnes
Good luck today, and remember to show us your green screens in Discord!
