Welcome to the Monday edition of the Stack City, where I’ll be going through the top MLB DFS Stacks on DraftKings and Fanduel.
Tonight we have a solid-looking 8-game slate of MLB DFS to navigate through. While a smaller slate normally means fewer options, that isn’t the case tonight. We have some pitchers that we can really attack tonight.
Always make sure to read Adam’s Starting Rotation when setting your lineup. It’s hands down the best pitching article in the MLB DFS business.
Let’s dig in and see if we can find some stacks to use today!
MLB DFS Stacks – Main
Texas Rangers vs. Adrian Martinez
The young Adrian Martinez now has 3 starts under this his belt. While his first one was very solid, his last 2 have not and that’s what we’re going to be attacking tonight. In his last 2 starts, Martinez has combined to surrender 4 homers and 10 ER in just 9 innings of work. Tonight he’s going to face off against a Rangers team that is finally starting to hit like they were supposed to. Over the last week or so, the Rangers have scored at least 5 runs 5 times in their last 6 games. With a matchup against a struggling pitcher tonight, they should make it 6 of 7.
So far it’s really been the righties that have done Martinez in. Righties have hit all 4 homers and they have a .647 slugging % vs. him. They also have a .424 wOBA. Outside of batting average, all numbers against righties are significantly worse than to lefties.
Knowing that I’m starting off my Rangers stack with Marcus Semien. Semien is coming into this one swinging a hot bat. He has hits in 5 of his last 7 games and has extra-base hits in back-to-back games. Martinez is mostly a sinker ball pitcher, throwing it more than 60% of the time to both sides of the plate. This should put Semien in a good spot tonight as he has a .379 wOBA and a .244 ISO against them over the last few seasons.
I know he’s not a righty, but I’m going to prioritize getting Corey Seager into my Rangers stack tonight. Seager is red hot at the plate right as he’s homered in 4 of his last 5 games. He’s on an epic run right now and with a matchup against a pitcher giving up bombs, he should continue his torrid run. Seager also has done extremely well against righty sinkers. Over the last several seasons, Seager has a .519 wOBA and a .471 ISO. Lock him into your lineups.
Other Rangers bats I really like tonight are going to be Adolis Garcia, Josh Smith, and Nate Lowe.
San Diego Padres vs. Jose Urena
The Padres are going to be extremely chalky tonight. Neither site decided to price them up tonight and they are in an absolute smash spot tonight vs. Jose Urena. If you look at just the ERA on Urena in his first start for the Rockies, he did well. That’s really the only positive from his start. Although he gave up just 1 ER in his 6 innings of work, he also walked 3 and gave up 5 hits. He also had a low BABIP of just .238 in the start. The Dodgers had a 43% flyball rate and a 38% hard-hit rate.
Having those metrics coupled with a 91% contact rate is just asking for trouble. While you may be able to get away with stuff like that in a park like Dodger Stadium, Coors field is way less forgiving. Padres currently have an implied run total of over 6 and they should get all of it tonight.
We’ll start off this Padres stack with leadoff hitter Trent Grisham. Grisham is criminally priced on DK tonight at just $2.9k. It’s not often we get a leadoff hitter priced under $4k in this type of a matchup and environment, let alone $3k. Can he fail in this matchup? Absolutely. But I’m willing to risk that with how well he’s set up tonight. Grisham is also one of the Padres’ better hitters of late. Over his last 16 AB, Grisham has 5 hits and has an OPS Of .921. At his price tonight, we won’t need much to return value.
Next up will be Nomar Mazara who is literally min-priced on DK tonight. Whoever set pricing tonight for the Padres should probably have a new job. Over the last month, Mazara has been decent against right-handed pitching. He has a .141 ISO and a .310 wOBA. He’s always a risk to put up a goose egg, but again, at this price, he’s in play in a solid matchup and environment.
Other Padres I like tonight are going to Manny Machado, Luke Voit, and Jake Cronenworth.
I will add that fading the Padres tonight is 100% in play. They’re going to be very chalky, but they aren’t playing very well right now. Over their last 6 games, they’ve scored more than 2 runs just once and got absolutely embarrassed by the Giants yesterday. The last time they were in Coors they were expected to do well and did not, scoring just 11 runs in a 3-game series.
Colorado Rockies vs. Sean Manaea
While the masses will probably gravitate towards the Padres in this one, I actually find the other side of this game way more appealing. While not priced as low as the Padres, there still is some real nice value on the Rockies side and they get an enticing matchup vs. Sean Manaea. Manaea has been very beatable this year as he just a 3-4 record. While his K’s are up this year, so are the walks as he has a career-high 3.57 BB/9 on the year.
It’s been more than a month now since he’s had a truly good start. Over his last 4 starts, he’s pitched to an ERA over 6 and his 4.8 xFIP indicates that the 6 ERA isn’t all just bad luck. He’s been giving up a ton of flyballs with a flyball rate of 49% over the last month and those flyballs tend to get some extra giddy-up in Coors. We’ll want to focus on the righties with Colorado as Manaea is very dominant against lefties.
We’ll start this stack off with a finally healthy Kris Bryant. Since coming back from the IL, Bryant has been crushing left-handed pitching. Over his last 24 AB against lefties, Bryant has a .348 ISO and a .472 wOBA. Bryant has a long history of crushing lefties so these numbers are nowhere near surprising. He was removed from yesterday’s game with cramping, but according to Bud Black he’s fine. We’ll just want to monitor the lineup ahead of the game.
Next up will be Brendan Rodgers. Rodgers is another Rockies bat that has historically done extremely well against sinkers. Manaea throws his sinker more than 60% of the time. Over his last 14 plate appearances against lefty sinkers, Rodgers has a .467 ISO and a .397 wOBA. He too is coming into this one having hit lefties very well over the last month. Over the last month, Rodgers has a .214 ISO and a .441 wOBA vs. southpaws. At just $4.5k on DK tonight, his price is very reasonable.
Other Rockies I really like here are going to be Connor Joe, Randal Grichuk, Yonathan Daza, and even Charlie Blackmon.
MLB DFS Summary
Other stacks I really like tonight are the Royals vs. Alex Faedo, Rays vs. Brayan Bello, and A’s vs. Spencer Howard.
Good luck and hope to see you in the green.
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