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MLB DFS season is finally here and so is the inaugural Aces and Bases from Win Daily Sports. The July 24th edition of Aces and Bases will take on the main 11-game MLB DFS slate on DraftKings and FanDuel. The purpose of this article is to identify our top pitching plays and fades on the slate, in addition to our top offense stacks for your GPP lineups.
Please make sure you keep an eye on the weather and other factors as those are always important things to monitor when playing MLB DFS. Be sure to check out our MLB DFS Projections as well. Without further ado, it’s Aces and Bases time.
MLB DFS: The Aces
Best Value: Chris Paddack ($8,600 DK / $8,900 FD)
Chris Paddack is one of the best young arms in the game and gets to make his 2020 debut in the pitcher-friendly, Petco Park (without a pitch-count). Paddack is currently a (-130) favorite and was absolutely DOMINATE at home in 2019 (which is really all the data we have on Paddack for Friday’s slate) supporting the following:
- .188 Batting AVG Against
- .235 wOBA
- 28% K-Rate
Paddack will face off against a respectable Arizona Diamondbacks lineup who’s projected K-Rate sits right around 21%. I don’t expect a lot of MLB DFS ownership going towards the Padres’ Ace on Friday, so I’ll be more than happy to have a lot of exposure to Paddack. This price tag also helps you jam in some of our top stacks you’ll see below.
Honorable Mention: German Marquez
Top Ace(s): Shane Bieber ($10,300 DK / $10,200 FD) & Jack Flaherty ($9,000 DK / $10,500 FD)
I don’t need to write a whole lot about Bieber (-215) and Flaherty (-200) as they’re going up against arguably the two worst offenses in baseball (Kansas City and Pittsburgh). They’re both coming off of outstanding breakout seasons and should have no issues racking up strikeouts and hitting value against these minor league lineups opposing them.
Both pitchers are hefty favorites in terms of Vegas odds and make for excellent cash-game and GPP pitchers. On FanDuel, I’m more likely to roll out Bieber due to the savings, but on DraftKings, Flaherty’s $9K price tag is unbelievably affordable.
Honorable Mention: Aaron Nola, Justin Verlander
Punt Play: Joe Musgrove ($6,900 DK / $6,500 FD)
Musgrove’s price is enough to intrigue me for some of my GPP builds. Joe Musgrove and the Pirates are a big underdog (+179) on the road in St. Louis but that doesn’t take him out of my player pool at this price. I highly doubt anyone plays Musgrove (especially on FanDuel) and I’m not quite sure why.
This aging, St. Louis lineup lacking in power (in addition to a projected 21% strikeout rate) does not scare me one bit. If Musgrove can continue to sit around a 9% Fly-Ball/Line-Drive rate like he did in 2019, his downside is rather limited. For sub $7K on both sites, give me some shares of Musgrove in order to jam in the top bats on this 11-game MLB DFS slate.
Honorable Mention: Brandon Woodruff, Sandy Alcantara
Top Fade: Nathan Eovaldi ($7,100 DK / $7,100 FD)
I’m expecting Eovaldi (-222) to be very high owned on Friday’s main slate (on both DFS outlets) and for that reason alone, I’m out. Eovaldi hasn’t gone deeper than six innings since early August of 2018 and I don’t see him going deeper than five innings on Friday in his first start of the season.
Yes, Baltimore may be terrible and Chris Davis being in the lineup probably gives Eovaldi two free strikeouts, but the rest of this lineup isn’t going to give up at-bats. I think Eovaldi is fine for cash games with the cheap price tag, heavy ownership and a big Vegas favorite, but I have no confidence in his GPP winning upside. FADE.
Honorable Mention: Ross Stripling
MLB DFS: The Bases
On an 11-game slate, there are a ton of different ways to build your offense. Personally, I’m going to take a stand on a few offenses and call it a day. If you’re play MME style of GPPs, you can always get some exposure to more offenses, but for 3-Entry Max and Single Entry GPPs, I’m going to battle with a very limited player pool, as I really want to pick on a couple of starting pitchers and weaker bullpens.
We all know the importance of stacking when play MLB DFS GPPs, so here are my top stacks for the Friday main slate.
Top Stacks
- Los Angeles Dodgers – Good luck being able to afford them unless you roll out Joe Musgrove and/or another punt pitcher, but there’s no arguing the appeal of the 2020 Dodgers. You can honestly stack any part of this offense… they’re that lethal (especially if Jeff Samardzija is on the bump).
- Houston Astros – No surprise here. Whether or not they cheat, they’re likely to have the first or second highest implied team total going up against soft tossing Marco Gonzales. Gonzales gave up a LOT of fly balls and line drives with an exit velocity > 93MPH… that’s going to be a problem if he didn’t work on some things in the off-season.
Value Stacks
- Boston Red Sox – Love this match-up against a dumpster fire pitching staff from Baltimore. It blows my mind how cheap this offense is going to be on Friday, which will allow you to roster the top pitchers on the slate. Guys like Jose Peraza, Michael Chavis, and Kevin Pillar offer a TON of salary relief if you plan on using some of the other main weapons in the Boston offense (J.D. Martinez, Devers, Bogaerts, etc.)
- Cleveland Indians – Give me all of the Cleveland Indians on Friday and then even more Franmil Reyes. Reyes is going to hit a home run in his 2020 Cleveland Debut. You know who else to play from this Cleveland offense, but you can always sneak in salary savers like Domingo Santana, Jordan Luplow, and Cesar Hernandez if you need salary elsewhere.
Good luck to all on this opening weekend and be sure to check out one of the sharpest minds in MLB DFS, Brian Tulloch’s Picks and Pivots!
Make sure you follow me on Twitter @StixPicks and be sure to sign up for a ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate as sports FINALLY return.
