Adam Strangis MLB DFS: DraftKings and FanDuel Pitching 6/23
We only have a few games to play today and the pitching selection…is not deep. There is really only one ace on this slate and he could be somewhat over-owned, depending on how the slate breaks. I have exactly zero plans to play cash because this slate is rife with poor pitching. Still, there are some interesting options so let’s get to work in the MLB DFS: DraftKings and FanDuel Pitching 6/23!
Aces
Clayton Kershaw
Generally, I’ve been pretty cautious with Kershaw this season as it is crystal clear the Dodgers are treating him with an extremely conservative approach. I can’t fault them for that as Kershaw is more important down the stretch and in the postseason than he is on June 23rd, but he is the lone ace on this slate. In his 39 IP, he’s been his normal self with a 2.89 xFIP, a 2.61 FIP, a 27.2% K rate, and a 12.9% swinging-strike rate. The slider is still the man pitch at around a 44% usage and it’s generating a 37.1% whiff rate and it has a .255 wOBA allowed. The Reds are 25th against the slider and against lefties overall, they are 22nd in wRC+, 15th in ISO and wOBA, and 16th in OPS. When Kershaw isn’t striking out hitters, the ground ball rate is 49% and he certainly is the best pitcher on paper on this slate. In the general sense, he is overpriced at $10,200 and the first two starts back from injury have not been that great with a 3.81 xFIP, a 21.1% K rate, and a .282 wOBA, and a 3.00 ERA.
Kyle Wright
Wright is coming off a start that wasn’t his best ever and this won’t be the easiest matchup for him if the Giants go with a lefty-heavy lineup. That side of the plate has a 3.78 xFIP, a walk rate of 10.6%, and a wOBA of .269. Now, those splits are not bad by any means but it is the weaker side for Wright without a doubt. He’s still putting together a very strong season with a 27.4% K rate, a 3.13 xFIP, and a 2.94 ERA overall and his curveball had better be on point. The Giants are fifth against curves this year but Wright is throwing his 32.2% of the time with a 35.5% whiff rate and a .239 wOBA. He complements that with a four-seam that has a 28.4% whiff rate but that pitch has allowed a .359 wOBA and is the weak link as far as results go. Of the four homers allowed, three have come against the four-seam and San Francisco is in the top five there as well. It’s a difficult spot but with the lack of options, Wright is more in play than normal in my eyes.
Everyone Else
As I mentioned, things get ugly fast with pitchers that could get crushed today. The three that make the most sense in my mind are Kyle Freeland, Justin Steele, and Hunter Greene. We’ve talked about the Miami Marlins and their issues against lefties all year and they are still 29th in OBP, 30th in OPS, ISO, wOBA, and wRC+. They have brought their K rate down under 30% but it’s not like 29.2% is anything to be happy about as an offense either. The flip side is Freeland is not that great with a 4.78 xFIP overall and a K rate of just 15% but he does keep the ball on the ground 41.3% of the time. To the surprise of nobody, Freeland has pitched better outside of Coors this year with a 3.00 ERA, a .291 wOBA, the K rate approaches 20%, and the WHIP drops down to 1.26. Life could be worse for him, although the xFIP is still 4.60 in the away split so there’s no safety here.
If Freeland draws the best matchup for a lefty pitcher, Steele isn’t far behind. The Pirates are 28th or worse in OBP, OPS, wOBA, and wRC+ with the only category they look even average in are ISO at 17th. They also whiff over 24% of the time and it’s a nice bonus for Steele that his main strikeout weapon is a slider (with 34 and a 30.7% whiff rate). Pittsburgh is in the bottom 10 against them this season and the recent call-ups of Oneil Cruz and Bligh Madris are lefties. That side of the plate has a 30.9% K rate, a 3.00 xFIP, and a 1.76 FIP so a lot of factors come together nicely for Steele and this is the first day all week I’m out on the Bucco offense. Going with one of (and possibly both) of these lefties sure opens up a lot and may just be the better bang for your buck today.
Greene is the last of this trio for multiple reasons and the salary is a real pain and I’m not sure it is deserving at all. Sure, he has plenty of upside but he also can get crushed and the matchup doesn’t do him any favors. The Dodgers are in the top three in every offensive category we value, the lead in walk rate at 10.4%, and they are 21st in K rate at 21.3%. I’m not sure Greene is equipped for this style of a matchup with a walk rate just under 10% and a FIP of 5.29 (the xFIP of 3.99 is a little more encouraging). One interesting avenue that Greene could exploit is the Dodgers are just 17th when facing a fastball and Greene uses that pitch roughly half the time. The problem there is it has allowed a .463 wOBA so far and each side of the plate has at least a .272 wOBA and a 1.13 WHIP. Perhaps the fact that Greene has lefties at a 1.07 HR/9 and a 32% K rate can save him but he costs an awful lot with such a questionable profile.
Honorable Mention
Zach Please could conceivably have a solid start as he’s better against the right side of the plate with a 3.75 xFIP, a 3.51 FIP, and an 18.4% K rate which is what you’d want against the Twins. He’s also been worse on the word and the xFIP is over 4.50 overall so there is certainly nothing special here from Plesac.
Stacks
Braves
Guardians
Rockies
Brewers
Cardinals
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